Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[vacanechaser]

the question i have is is this acquiring SUB tropical charactericstics

and also has there ever been a subtropical storm with hurricane force winds?

i think we are looking at a STD

I think subtropical strom with hurricane force winds would be a hurricane. Correct me if I'm wrong.

correct... gustav was sub tropical in this same area in 2002, but reached hurricane status as it passed by hatteras... it is sub-tropical now... it is sitting over very warm waters and that should change with time... i dont think it will be sub tropical for long...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

The ECMWF develops it and moves it NW into Charleston, SC Saturday evening. It has more isobars around it than the EC predicted with Dean or Felix, but that doesn't mean it is forecasting a stronger hurricane. Could well be a hurricane threat to the Carolinas northward over the weekend. Or it could form farther offshore then move off to the north and out to sea. Something to keep a close eye on, that's for sure.

Yeah, the fact that a model other than the CMC deepens it that much definitely has my attention.

agreed!

now about the possible track... i guess we need to sort of look to the west pac for some help dont we, with a teleconnection possible... the hurricane (typhoon) is headed right for an area that equals hatteras, or just sout of them... say the southern outer banks.. if that is true in most cases, that pattern should be in place what 6-10 days down the road.. what will be a possible tropical storm or hurricane gabrielle is making landfall at that time frame in some of those models... just a thought..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

['CaneFreak]

The ECMWF develops it and moves it NW into Charleston, SC Saturday evening. It has more isobars around it than the EC predicted with Dean or Felix, but that doesn't mean it is forecasting a stronger hurricane. Could well be a hurricane threat to the Carolinas northward over the weekend. Or it could form farther offshore then move off to the north and out to sea. Something to keep a close eye on, that's for sure.

Yeah, the fact that a model other than the CMC deepens it that much definitely has my attention.

agreed!

now about the possible track... i guess we need to sort of look to the west pac for some help dont we, with a teleconnection possible... the hurricane (typhoon) is headed right for an area that equals hatteras, or just sout of them... say the southern outer banks.. if that is true in most cases, that pattern should be in place what 6-10 days down the road.. what will be a possible tropical storm or hurricane gabrielle is making landfall at that time frame in some of those models... just a thought..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I think that is quite possible Jesse and the 12Z GFS thinks so too!!! This may be the first hurricane landfall in the US this year!!!!

[fci]

Jesse; you are following a logical conclusion and one that would be more "typical".
Hey at some point this season has to become more "typical"

If this does come to pass, ;ets hope it is just a TD or TS and can help bust the drought those folks in NC have been going through.

Mother Nature's way of balancing things out a bit....

And x-y-no:
I totally agree that when a model BESIDES CMC shows something, we should pay it some heed.

And Canefreak:
Lets hope you are wrong and it is not a landfalling Hurricane.

[vacanechaser]

Jesse; you are following a logical conclusion and one that would be more "typical".
Hey at some point this season has to become more "typical"

If this does come to pass, ;ets hope it is just a TD or TS and can help bust the drought those folks in NC have been going through.

Mother Nature's way of balancing things out a bit....

And x-y-no:
I totally agree that when a model BESIDES CMC shows something, we should pay it some heed.

And Canefreak:
Lets hope you are wrong and it is not a landfalling Hurricane.

yea, i have not seen anyone mention that before now so i thought i would throw that in there.. the nam really wraps this thing up too.. looking at the gfs coming in, it looks like is further west than the past 2 runs and likely going to show a hit to the outer banx or a very close call..

remember fci, this is what we do, track and study hurricanes.. we dont like the destruction, but to get out there and see it first hand and report what we see and tell the stories later, it helps in with folks talking to us who have never been through one, and it helps them prepare better ... and canefreak works with us, so he is just pointing that out i guess.. lol.. not happy, but i guess you could say, ready to go to work!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[vacanechaser]

well, there you have it, just sout of hatteras and up the coast just inland.. looks like several of the other models now!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Chacor]

Actually, let's clarify this: A subtropical storm with winds above 64 kt is NOT a hurricane. It remains a subtropical storm. It is only a hurricane if it gains full tropical characteristics.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
Subtropical Storm:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) or more.

Notice there is no upper limit to that.

Subtropical Storm 1 in 1968 was 70 kt at peak


and Subtropical Storm 1 in 1979 was 65 kt at peak:

[WmE]

Thanks for clarifying that Chacor.

[wxman57]

Looks like a developing TS to me. Recon is set to investigate in 24 hours, I think it'll go straight to TS Gabrielle tomorrow unless the NHC decides to call it TD 7 this afternoon.

[vacanechaser]

Looks like a developing TS to me. Recon is set to investigate in 24 hours, I think it'll go straight to TS Gabrielle tomorrow unless the NHC decides to call it TD 7 this afternoon.

thinking the same thing there wxman...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010

Station 41010
28.95 N 78.47 W (28°57'10" N 78°28'43" W)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wspd&uom=E

Located out of the convection and far from the LLC and the winds have been gusting up to 17.5 knots over the past few hours.

[KWT]

Yeah it does look like a developing system, looks like one of those sheared tropical systems that tend to pack higher winds then you'd expect given its Sat.presentation. I suspect that this could well become a hurricane down the road, esp if it doe shead back west after its eastward motion finishes into the gulf stream.

I just hope its not another Ginger!

[sevenleft]

Looks like a developing TS to me. Recon is set to investigate in 24 hours, I think it'll go straight to TS Gabrielle tomorrow unless the NHC decides to call it TD 7 this afternoon.

I'd like to see a tighter, less diffuse center. Right now I'm thinking that may be occuring near 29.5N 75.2W.

[tallywx]

Looks exactly like Hurricane Earl of 1998 in the Gulf, which had a sat. presentation about like that with 105 mph winds! Obviously this doesn't have that at this point, but Earl showed the potential of such hybrid storms to pack quite a punch.

[MWatkins]

At 12Z (8 AM) sat fixes were 1.5 from SAB and 1.0 from TAFB (but having a development T of 1.5 considering a white band in Dvorak imagery).

GFS has shifted considerably westward from the 6z guidance...

Overall banding structure seems to be better-defined in the convective bands to the south and the low clouds to the NW.

Going to be interesting to see if the dry air on the N/W sides can moderate some...but this clearly looks like a TD to me at this point.

MW

[sevenleft]

Looks like the convection is propagating to the east some...hard to tell if the low is moving with it or not.

[canegrl04]

At 12Z (8 AM) sat fixes were 1.5 from SAB and 1.0 from TAFB (but having a development T of 1.5 considering a white band in Dvorak imagery).

GFS has shifted considerably westward from the 6z guidance...

Overall banding structure seems to be better-defined in the convective bands to the south and the low clouds to the NW.

Going to be interesting to see if the dry air on the N/W sides can moderate some...but this clearly looks like a TD to me at this point.

MW

GFS seems to be the tracking leader this season.They handled Dean so well.Lets see if other models trend with it

[windstorm99]

IR loop of a better organized 99L...

[BensonTCwatcher]

At 12Z (8 AM) sat fixes were 1.5 from SAB and 1.0 from TAFB (but having a development T of 1.5 considering a white band in Dvorak imagery).

GFS has shifted considerably westward from the 6z guidance...

Overall banding structure seems to be better-defined in the convective bands to the south and the low clouds to the NW.

Going to be interesting to see if the dry air on the N/W sides can moderate some...but this clearly looks like a TD to me at this point.

MW

I think the dry air is the xfactoir development wise. The shear will likely decrease. Looks to me like there is a decent change of the moisture around the other quadants transfering with the outflow that looks to be increasing and fight off the dry air. I have seen the NW side start to look less dry and sheared.

[HollynLA]

Looks pretty good today with movement to the southeast currently. Are there any spaghetti plots on this yet?