Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[HURAKAN]

LETS COMPARE:

A.


B.


If you were asked without previous knowledge of Gabrielle, which one is a named subtropical storm? A or B?

Without even thinking I would have answered B.

[Zardoz]

98L is NOT back. What you're looking at is the wave that moved off the west coast of Africa 3-4 days after 98L.

Yes, that's true. However, I sat and watched that wave absorb the remnants of 98L.

Does that count?

[artist]

thank you both wxman and frank2. Great explanations that I could understand!

[Frank2]

wxamn, that sounds like the old parallax issue...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallax

the other night, I could not see a star looking directly at it - unless I looked about 10 degrees to the left...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[RL3AO]

Well, you can't say theres not a well defined circulation, but theres not much else to say.

[Extremecane]

Accu expects this to be a hurricane?

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[wxman57]

98L is NOT back. What you're looking at is the wave that moved off the west coast of Africa 3-4 days after 98L.

Yes, that's true. However, I sat and watched that wave absorb the remnants of 98L.

Does that count?

I saw the same thing. Let's call it 98.5L.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[wxman57]

Here's a 2-hr movement from 1532Z-1732Z. Toward 3.8 degrees and 27.7 miles. That's 14 mph to the north. Well east of NHC's and my track now. I estimate the center will cross 32N near 74.1 or 74.2W longitude. That's about 0.8 to 0.9 deg. east of the morning tracks.

[vacanechaser]

Here's a 2-hr movement from 1532Z-1732Z. Toward 3.8 degrees and 27.7 miles. That's 14 mph to the north. Well east of NHC's and my track now. I estimate the center will cross 32N near 74.1 or 74.2W longitude. That's about 0.8 to 0.9 deg. east of the morning tracks.

it looks like in the last frame it is starting to make a turn back the northwest... maybe


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Chacor]

...GABRIELLE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW POINT
COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

And the key paragraph about movement:

THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS BUT IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9
MPH...14 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TOMORROW...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
COAST TONIGHT.

[Ed Mahmoud]

98.5L looks pretty impressive, but get a load of the monster( future 91L?) behind it.


173630 3252N 07521W 9876 00227 0140 +192 +192 038037 038 999 999 05

That is the highest wind I've seen, I guess they wouldn't give it a reduction in rank to Sub-Tropical Depression before the normal 4:45 update?


The 970 mb landfall near Wilmington seems somewhat unlikely, no?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope the rainbands stay out of Richmond, VA through midnight tonight...

[cheezyWXguy]

wow gabby looks like crap right now...completely exposed. I wouldnt be surprised if it just degenerated to a wave before even approaching landfall, whether it would actually hit land or not. It will likely pull a Barry. Initial strength is the highest, with weakening for the rest of its life until it makes landfall.

[Coredesat]

Actually, if it stays weak I'm fairly sure we won't mind. We could really use the rain (along with other parts of VA and pretty much all of NC).

Now, if it strengthens, THEN we'll hope the rainbands stay away.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actually, if it stays weak I'm fairly sure we won't mind. We could really use the rain (along with other parts of VA and pretty much all of NC).

Now, if it strengthens, THEN we'll hope the rainbands stay away.

I hope Richmond gets a good solid rainband, just not before midnight.

[wxman57]

Actually, if it stays weak I'm fairly sure we won't mind. We could really use the rain (along with other parts of VA and pretty much all of NC).

Now, if it strengthens, THEN we'll hope the rainbands stay away.

I hope Richmond gets a good solid rainband, just not before midnight.

I doubt you'll see as much as a single cumulus cloud from Gabrielle.

[Coredesat]

I doubt you'll see as much as a single cumulus cloud from Gabrielle.

You're right, but hey, I can dream.

And this is pretty much the only -removed- you'll ever see me do, so mark this date in history. I would not be surprised to see the dry air choke off the remaining convection over the next day or so, though there is some modest outflow from the little convection that's there.