Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[sfwx]

Keeping up the talk about the storms affecting Florida being female, I have another interesting thought:

The "I" storms have a notorious history of being bad:

Ivan, Isidore, Isabel to name a few.

Judging by the history of "I" storms, it gives me concern that TD #8 could eventually be a monster and follow in the above 3 storm's footsteps.

I've called Ingrid to be the monster storm all season.

Don't forget Irene in '99

Eric

[Recurve]

I have always like the Euro.

Seriously though. South Florida does have to watch especially for storms that get north of the greater Antilles when there's a building ridge. As others have said, a lot can happen. Like Floyd, although the problem with that is it triggered a lot of evacs and concern because we just couldn't be sure it was going to curve away.

We'll be watching but not getting overly concerned, as they say. At present speed it's 10 days away.

SFla and everyone else, except the greater Antilles, are better off when systems stays below Hispanola and Cuba; obviously their mountains can diminsh most storms.

[windstorm99]

Herbert box has been added to the models....

[gatorcane]

Herbert box has been added to the models....

YEs that will be key to whether people in South Florida should start really paying attention or not.

[miamicanes177]

Euro says MAJOR fish..

That is NOT TD 8 the ECMWF is showing....Is it developing something behind TD8....the pic clearly shows the fish storm being developed behind TD8 at 72 hours. You can see it just coming into view on the map and heading out to sea. Please be more careful before you make false statements like that on the board.

[MWatkins]

Looks like the EURO is doing something like the GFS...breaking off a mid/upper low and swinging it around the ridge where it meets up with where TD8 should be. This upper low is acting like a full back and eating the ridge so that TD8 can get out (if that is 8 in the model)...

The UKMET on the other hand...smooshes the upper low and sends td 8 westward.

This little mid/upper low is the key to the next 5 days. If it is weaker...or if TD8 can build a northward outflow channel to "protect" itself...then we're looking at a westward path.

It it's strong like the euro suggests then maybe everyone is off the hook.

Since I think the intensity of TD8 is way underdone in the Euro...I m leaning toward the first scenario...

MW

[seaswing]

Looks like the EURO is doing something like the GFS...breaking off a mid/upper low and swinging it around the ridge where it meets up with where TD8 should be. This upper low is acting like a full back and eating the ridge so that TD8 can get out (if that is 8 in the model)...

The UKMET on the other hand...smooshes the upper low and sends td 8 westward.

This little mid/upper low is the key to the next 5 days. If it is weaker...or if TD8 can build a northward outflow channel to "protect" itself...then we're looking at a westward path.

It it's strong like the euro suggests then maybe everyone is off the hook.

Since I think the intensity of TD8 is way underdone in the Euro...I m leaning toward the first scenario...

MW

Could you explain scenerio #1 a little more?

[gatorcane]

is that the upper low spinning in the center of this loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

So, Mike W. do you see the system affecting the Central/Northern Lesser Antilles?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

[quote="MWatkins"]Looks like the EURO is doing something like the GFS...breaking off a mid/upper low and swinging it around the ridge where it meets up with where TD8 should be. This upper low is acting like a full back and eating the ridge so that TD8 can get out (if that is 8 in the model)...


Seems like the Euro places the storm at about 20n 50w in 72 hours. Isn't that unrealistic based upon it's present position and movement and doesn't that pretty much invailidate it's conclusions?

[deltadog03]

Euro currently does not see TD8 very well right now.

[windstorm99]

Models in good agreement...

[Ivanhater]

No windstorm, look at this image of the most reliable models(globals)..this will give you a better idea...

[canegrl04]

Models in good agreement...

Which is pretty frightening.Once they hve come together in agreement,it is pretty much set as to the direction a system is going.Maybe slight variances along the way.Its pretty clear Ingrid is going to impact the US

[chris_fit]

Which is pretty frightening.Once they hve come together in agreement,it is pretty much set as to the direction a system is going.Maybe slight variances along the way.Its pretty clear Ingrid is going to impact the US

I don't think anyone can make that bold of a statement right now....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***The following Analysis of Synoptics IS NOT OFFICIAL. DO NOT
USE IT FOR MAJOR DECISIONS. PLEASE GO TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE FOR THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS. THANK YOU.***

Looking at the synoptic forecast, a strong trough will be over
FL by the weekend, but then the forecast states that a powerful
ridge will "Bridge" across some sort of surface boundary in association
with the trough.

Now, that bridging would take place 5-6 days from now, and
this system will be near the islands at that time.

The synoptic key here is how strong will that "Increasingly likely..
Strong Ridge" be...as that would have significant long
term ramifications barring the presences of a significant
trough in 6 days along the eastern US.

Current model guidance wants to take this slightly north
of the islands, but reading input from some of the professional
meteorologists, and especially considering that this bridging-
strengthening of the ridge would take place in 5-6 days, I will
personally lean towards a further south path that does
come uncomfortably close to the islands.

People should be watching this very closely
in those islands.

Secondly, as for intensity, the models are underdoing
it substantially. I understand that there is forecasted
to be shear in the 3-5 day period, but this time of
year shear is not typically strong enough to
significantly inhibit tropical systems, especially
considering the "increasingly likely...strong ridge"
forecasted to establish itself in the national weather
surface outlook I posted below.

With the waters warm and a ridge building in the
6-7 day period, this could intensify to a hurricane.


Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE WE AREN`T LOOKING FOR A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY ANY MEANS...IT`S BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING ENHANCED
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 5000 FEET

Professional Meteorologists- If I have incorrectly assumed the location
of the ridge please point it out I would be grateful for corrections.

[destruction92]

Apparently, Don Sutherland does not believe that TD8 will reach hurricane strength and that it should not be a threat to the U.S. mainland.


"At this time, given the historic data and the timing of a more favorable landfalling pattern, I lean toward the idea that TD 8 will likely recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. It could make landfall in eastern Canada e.g., Newfoundland. As far as its maximum strength is concerned, I believe TD 8 will probably peak as a tropical storm with some chance at growing into a Category 1 hurricane."-Don Sutherland

So I guess some of the mets here are thinking differently from each other and maybe from the NHC as well...this may be a very trying forecast.

[deltadog03]

See, i love the euro over any other model when we get close to the midlattitudes, but the Euro dosn't see TD8 right now. It sees the wave NE of td8. So, I really can't consider anything from it right now.

[Recurve]

See, i love the euro over any other model when we get close to the midlattitudes, but the Euro dosn't see TD8 right now. It sees the wave NE of td8. So, I really can't consider anything from it right now.

Uh-huh. Surprised to see GFDL and NOGAPS apparently show no influence from any lows weakening the high, and driving a storm west or even southwestward at the end.

I'll say it's kinda ridiculous to assert this is or isn't an Antilles/Bahamas and especially US coast threat. This far out anything's a threat, and nothing is decided. There's seven or eight days of weather changes ahead. It can fizzle, drift, explode, miss completely or crash as a major storm from Brownsville to Maine after wrecking/missing all the islands, as anyone knows from historical tracks.

I believed Dean and Felix's track guidance, it just looked like those suckers were going to stay down and not slow down. But this, in September, developing how it is -- who knows. Models are darn close for next three days.
Right now I'd trust GFDL, NOGAPS and consensus, and start getting ready from Guadaloupe northward, the virgins and in Puerto Rico.

[Blown Away]

Models in good agreement...

Which is pretty frightening.Once they hve come together in agreement,it is pretty much set as to the direction a system is going.Maybe slight variances along the way.Its pretty clear Ingrid is going to impact the US

18z runs look much better for SFL, NE of the Hebert Box.