Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[Vortex]

Tampa, thanks for your input...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa, thanks for your input...

Your welcome

but I am still confused- I felt more confident in the ridge
scenario after reading your analyses throughout the day,
but the NWS discussion I posted earlier also points to
2 troughs in quick series- So my confidence in what
may happen is very low. Vortex, what do you
think of all this? I saw the model runs you posted
pointed to a very strong ridge, but do you
think the ridge will exceed the trough
in terms of strength? This is the point that
is of utmost uncertainty to me.

Why I have been making such an issue of these features
is my friends and I are watching for a tropical storm
to bring some rain- thats more of a wishcast, but it
is the reason why 92L is so much of a big deal for me.

Of course nobody wants a hurricane, but I am
really wanting to know as much as I can about
this trough versus ridge battle taking place.

[windstorm99]

If this keeps up i can see the NHC by tommorow if not at 530am at 1130am say development of this wave is no longer anticipated as upper level winds are unfavorable.

Might it refire sometime this evening sure but it just went poof as its been doing the past few days which in all honesty its normal for somehing that does not have low level convergence.

Overall well see what takes place later this evening into tommorow morning.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If this keeps up i can see the NHC by tommorow if not at 530am at 1130am say development of this wave is no longer anticipated as upper level winds are unfavorable.

Might it refire sometime this evening sure but it just went poof as its been doing the past few days which in all honesty its normal for somehing that does not have low level convergence.

Overall well see what takes place later this evening into tommorow morning.

I agree that this system in many respects (intensity and track) is a wait and see
system. With favorable conditions near the bahamas...IMO more likely to develop
than not..

[destruction92]

POOF!

[windstorm99]

POOF!

You can say that again lol...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Not poof.
Look at that well-defined circulation. One burst of
convection and this will take off.

[destruction92]

Not poof.
Look at that well-defined circulation. One burst of
convection and this will take off.

I would agree with you but there is only a mid level circulation...which means nothing is going to happen in the short term.
For now, 92L can be kissed goodbye if it does not develop a low level circulation very very soon.

[RL3AO]

Some people give up too easily.

[cycloneye]

Already the dead posts are appearing with a invest that is lees than 12 hour old?

[Derek Ortt]

As I said earlier, this was never an impressive system

Never had a LLC... didn't we learn from the infamous 99L that never had a LLC? Cannot sustain convection with the LLC to focus the low level convergence

[RL3AO]

I think Dean, Felix and Gabby were all called dead at some point by multiple people while an invest. I think some people called Dean dead while it was a weak TS too.

[destruction92]

As I said earlier, this was never an impressive system

Never had a LLC... didn't we learn from the infamous 99L that never had a LLC? Cannot sustain convection with the LLC to focus the low level convergence

derek, i agree with you. what was i thinking earlier today?

[wzrgirl1]

i think that this thing is going to be history by the time we wake up tomorrow...We have an upper low to its NW & another one close to its NE which is tearing this system apart unless those two separate quickly this may just dissipate

[Weatherfreak000]

92L had Convection earlier and it didn't "Take off".


I find this all rather ironic when earlier today I was seeing "TD at 10PM" posts.


I'd have to say "Dropped from NRL at 10PM" seems more logical now. This system just doesn't have the organization to hold together long enough to get anything going.

I personally believe 90L has a better chance to develop than this. 90L just needs a reduction in wind shear while 92L needs more surface convergence and a wind shear reduction.


Now don't get me wrong, i'm not altogether "writing this thing off", but i'm thinking with some confidence now if something were to spin up, it ain't going to be a SFL Major Hurricane you guys can breath easy.

With that i'm going to estimate..this storm needs another 96-120 Hours to become named, too close to SFL to organize into a major.

[wzrgirl1]

Some people give up too easily.

and some people are realistic while others are not

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Watch 91L that is a real invest. In it could be something "big" in the coming days. This could also form convection tonight, and has to be watched. But it has less chance.

[cycloneye]

Is time to focus on the big one to the east.

[HURAKAN]

September means that anything can develop, and this system has already proven that it has been organizing over the past 24 hrs and will continue to do so over the next few days. DMIN = less convection, DMAX = increase in convection. Gabrielle proved that coming back from the dead is possible!

[destruction92]

92L had Convection earlier and it didn't "Take off".


I find this all rather ironic when earlier today I was seeing "TD at 10PM" posts.


I'd have to say "Dropped from NRL at 10PM" seems more logical now. This system just doesn't have the organization to hold together long enough to get anything going.

I personally believe 90L has a better chance to develop than this. 90L just needs a reduction in wind shear while 92L needs more surface convergence and a wind shear reduction.


Now don't get me wrong, i'm not altogether "writing this thing off", but i'm thinking with some confidence now if something were to spin up, it ain't going to be a SFL Major Hurricane you guys can breath easy.

With that i'm going to estimate..this storm needs another 96-120 Hours to become named, too close to SFL to organize into a major.

All the pro-mets here (including Derek Ortt, Wxman57, etc.) believe that 90L has the least chance of developing of the 3 invests...not to burst your bubble since you are Gulf Coast resident and concerned about your neck of the woods.

Although 90L has more convection, is does not contain a LLC or even a MLC...just some "eddies" according to I think Wxman57...which reminds me, I kind of like Eddie's ice cream but I think Ben and Jerry's is a bit better...but now I don't eat anymore of that crap.