Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

ALL TASKING FOR A SUSPECT AREA IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO CANCELED AT 24/1100Z.


No flights for this area today.

[Sanibel]

Taking a track just south of GFDL and into Mexico it looks like.

Remember this side of the Gulf spawned a record intensification lately if the shear abates.

[vaffie]

Tomorrow, a lot of people may be scratching their heads when they suddenly discover a powerful storm a few miles off the coast of Texas.

[Air Force Met]

don't think it will reform underneath the convections. It looks like the shear is relaxing. On the satellite loops the last few frames you can see the WV loop move just a bit slower.

I think this will make some good surf down here.

I somewhat agree and disagree. This isn't a situation where the center would reform...but it is a situation where the center would have a tendency to move towards the deeper convection. Reason being: In slow moving/stalled systems - The pressure falls occur at a greater rate near the convection (on the north and east side in these classically lopsided systems) and the center will move towards the path of least resistance. The pressure falls create a elongated trof in which the center will sit on the SW side of...and then it creates an avenue, if you will, for the center to move towards the convection.

So...while you won't see the center reform....you may see it jog to the NE towards the convection. Many people call that a reformation...and while semantically they are incorrect...I think their intent is correct.

[deltadog03]

AFM and wxman, do you think this could get trapped under the H2 ridge and just sit down there? If that is the case then the shear could drop off only to let itself form and move when the steering winds become enough to push it.

[Air Force Met]

AFM and wxman, do you think this could get trapped under the H2 ridge and just sit down there? If that is the case then the shear could drop off only to let itself form and move when the steering winds become enough to push it.

Yes...I think it will sit down there for a while. Not sure when the push out will come.

As far as shear goes...the upper winds are improving dramatically this morning. Taking a look at the hi res, I can see some blow-off headed east and south from the convection (near 92W) east of the LLC. That means the upper ridge is very close to the LLC. It wouldn't take much for the LLC to drift a little NE and be under the ridge...then you would have a system sheared on the east side...but favorably vented in the eastern half. This should be our next TD with little effort on its part.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Convection is really deepening around the LLC.

[HeeBGBz]

Karen might form out of 94L and beat out 96 and 97L in the Atlantic.

You could be right, funny how things change so fast in the tropics. The problem I have is naming a storm "Karen" that just doesn't seem right for a storm name.

I don't know. To me, the sound of Hurricane Karen would be one that would be a mean one. Like Carla. Or that other dreaded K name.

I'm trying to look to see which way 94L is traveling. I know the models show it going west or even south eventually, but to me it looks like all the dryer air over Texas would push it north or east. But then I see more dry air moving down from the northeast to push it the other way. Would it do a squeeze play and send it directly north in that case? More towards central LA?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Derek Ortt]

and yet recon was cancelled today? What kind of decision is that?

[DESTRUCTION5]

I want to know How in the heck are there no Models being run on this yet thier running them on the puffy clouds east of the windwards?

I find something wrong here..LOL

[Derek Ortt]

no flights for tomorrow even

This system is mor recon worthy that is that affecting the islands, IMO. This does appear to have a lower level circulation. Maybe cancel the flight for today (which I would not even do), but most certainly not the flight for tomorrow

[chadtm80]

Are they able to just take the current recon plan (for 97L) and just switch it to this one?

[vaffie]

I wouldn't worry about the current recon schedule. The NHC is probably scrambling right now or will be in a couple hours to check this one out--even if they haven't updated their schedule yet.

[HeeBGBz]

and yet recon was cancelled today? What kind of decision is that?

Is someone underestimating again? It seems this area of the gulf just ripens a storm once it leaves the Yucatan. I saw it with Humberto and now feel 94L is doing the same thing. I'm just an untrained eyeball, but it seems like some things should be obvious.

[Air Force Met]

no flights for tomorrow even

This system is mor recon worthy that is that affecting the islands, IMO. This does appear to have a lower level circulation. Maybe cancel the flight for today (which I would not even do), but most certainly not the flight for tomorrow

I predict...and certainly I may be wrong...but I predict that will be changed. Of course...by the time they get out there they may find a TS because they waited so long.

[eaglegirl]

I work where some of the hurricane hunters board their animals. One called today and extended the pet boarding time because instead of going home they were being sent to investigate this storminess sometime soon.

I was away from the news and computer all day today. The rains and weather we got today was what I was expecting to get from TD10. It made me wonder if it was coming from the 94L. It had a tropical feel to it. Hard rain and a nice breezyness.

(Sun Sep 23, 2007 9:38 pm)


They may be checking it out...

Do you remember this post from yesterday?

(edit: added the time of the quoted post)

[Derek Ortt]

it will be a while before they update this... the recon plan was just issued at the top of the hour (1400 UTC)

[vbhoutex]

I'm trying to look to see which way 94L is traveling. I know the models show it going west or even south eventually, but to me it looks like all the dryer air over Texas would push it north or east. But then I see more dry air moving down from the northeast to push it the other way. Would it do a squeeze play and send it directly north in that case? More towards central LA?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Interesting conjecture there and maybe not totally out of the realm of possibilities. Most models are keeping this over the GOm for several days, which I do not like!!!

Any pro-mets care to chime in on this?

[Derek Ortt]

not a bad thing to keep this over the Gulf or that long

Upwelling could occur, similar to Roxanne in 1995

[DESTRUCTION5]

not a bad thing to keep this over the Gulf or that long

Upwelling could occur, similar to Roxanne in 1995

Yea but how long would it take to suck up them 90F waters? I would imagine a long while?