BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[Coredesat]

And the eye has gone away again. It must still be in its ERC.

[Ptarmigan]

Come to think of it, today is the anniversary of the 1970 Bhola Cyclone that hit present day Bangaldesh. It claimed 500,000 to 1,100,000 lives. Bangladesh really needs to prepare for Sidr.

[Cyclone1]

Come to think of it, today is the anniversary of the 1970 Bhola Cyclone that hit present day Bangaldesh. Bangladesh really needs to prepare for Sidr.

That's the definition of creepy.

[Ptarmigan]

That's the definition of creepy.

It is. Scary all I can say.

[Derek Ortt]

EWRC about finished

should see RI shortly

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[RL3AO]

Is there any news out there on evacuations? Not much news coverage on what could be the second worst disaster (in terms of deaths) of this century.

[KatDaddy]

This could be an extreme tropical cyclone event with regard to loss of life. Brings back memories of Katrina and Rita over the Central GOM. Very scary to see such a powerful cyclone headed toward the Bay of Bengal.

[wxmann_91]

If this goes through the Ganges River delta... there's going to be tens of thousands who are going to be killed if they don't evacuate.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganges_Delta

"Between 115 and 143 million people live on the delta, despite risks from floods caused by monsoons, heavy runoff from the melting snows of the Himalayas, and tropical cyclones. A large part of the nation of Bangladesh lies in the Ganges Delta, and many of the country's people depend on the delta for survival.

It is believed that upwards of 300 million people are supported by the Ganges Delta, and approximately 400 million people live in the Ganges River Basin, making it the most populous river basin in the world. Most of the Ganges Delta has a population density of more than 520 people per square mile (200 people per km²), making it one of the most densely populated regions on earth."

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

Quite possibly the worst possible place a tropical cyclone could hit, and it's what the JTWC is forecasting.

[RL3AO]

Lets face it. The winds won't matter that much. It will be about the surge and rainfall. Hopefully the UN is prepared.

[HURAKAN]

The storm surge is already set to cause extensive damage, and possibly deaths, across the coastal areas.

[RL3AO]

If you look at the JTWC forecast map you see a little eastward jog in the last position point. It will need to be watched to see if it continues.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like the worst part of the eyewall is going to hit the Delta

Start praying this is not as bad as I suspect it will be

[Coredesat]

This is not good.

[Derek Ortt]

it's also likely to strike much higher than 70KT. JTWC is overdoing the weakening.


Part of the reaosn why the models have high shear is because the model tracks are absurredly slow. The storm is in its own model outflow. The 12 hour weakening seems almost IMDish as it is clear that the EWRC is finishing (it may have weakened to 100KT at the moment, but should RI shortly)

I will go on record and say 90-100KT at landfall, similar to Rita

I wish the JMA handled this area

[wxmann_91]

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/welcome.htm

[CrazyC83]

This could be an extreme tropical cyclone event with regard to loss of life. Brings back memories of Katrina and Rita over the Central GOM. Very scary to see such a powerful cyclone headed toward the Bay of Bengal.

You hit the nail on the head - the northern Bay of Bengal has very similar geography as the northern Gulf of Mexico.

This thread is remarkably active for something on the other side of the world (I don't think anyone on Storm2k lives in south-central Asia) - I think the sense of dread (sadly) is the reason.

[Coredesat]

I wish the JMA handled this area

Given how the IMD has handled this storm and others this season I wish anyone else handled this area.

[HURAKAN]

Eye coming back.