000
WTNT31 KNHC 310832
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
...NOEL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES...85 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF NOEL OFF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF CUBA TODAY AND NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. CAYO
COCO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....BRINGING TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO 20
TO 30 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN
Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HenkL
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 310847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL IS
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO COCO. RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE OBSERVATION AT CAYO COCO
SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB...AND AN EARLIER
ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT.
NOEL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12 HR
MOTION IS 330/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY EVEN BE MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS AN EARLY START OF THE
FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN...OR IF IT IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NOEL BASED ON
INTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL...
AND THE HWRF...IS FOR NOEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO
FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH ABSORBS NOEL. THE THIRD...
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST WITH IT AND NOEL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM.
THE FOURTH...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAKENING NOEL BEING DRIVEN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH NOEL
RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NOEL IS
EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MUCH OF IT
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. AS NOEL MOVES OFF CUBA...
THERE WILL BE A 24 HR OR SO PERIOD OF DECREASED SHEAR THAT COULD
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT...INTENSIFICATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STOP AS NOEL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 22.1N 78.2W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/1800Z 22.9N 78.7W 40 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.9N 78.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 77.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 75.7W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0600Z 35.0N 69.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0600Z 44.0N 61.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0600Z 54.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT41 KNHC 310847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007
SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL IS
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO COCO. RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE OBSERVATION AT CAYO COCO
SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB...AND AN EARLIER
ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT.
NOEL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 12 HR
MOTION IS 330/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY EVEN BE MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS AN EARLY START OF THE
FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN...OR IF IT IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NOEL BASED ON
INTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL...
AND THE HWRF...IS FOR NOEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND
BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO
FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH ABSORBS NOEL. THE THIRD...
SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST WITH IT AND NOEL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM.
THE FOURTH...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
TO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAKENING NOEL BEING DRIVEN
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH NOEL
RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AND THEN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NOEL IS
EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MUCH OF IT
DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. AS NOEL MOVES OFF CUBA...
THERE WILL BE A 24 HR OR SO PERIOD OF DECREASED SHEAR THAT COULD
ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT...INTENSIFICATION AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STOP AS NOEL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND
BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT.
THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH
OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 22.1N 78.2W 35 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/1800Z 22.9N 78.7W 40 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.9N 78.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 77.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 28.0N 75.7W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0600Z 35.0N 69.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0600Z 44.0N 61.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0600Z 54.0N 53.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
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- Contact:
108
URNT15 KNHC 311007
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 08 20071031
095530 1811N 06601W 3923 07735 0415 -165 -327 008002 003 999 999 03
095600 1812N 06603W 3926 07730 0415 -167 -334 046002 002 999 999 03
095630 1812N 06605W 3926 07733 0416 -169 -334 060002 003 999 999 03
095700 1813N 06608W 3925 07733 0417 -164 -285 072003 004 999 999 03
095730 1814N 06610W 3924 07733 0417 -165 -282 084003 004 999 999 03
095800 1815N 06613W 3927 07732 0417 -165 -263 084003 004 999 999 03
095830 1816N 06616W 3924 07735 0417 -165 -243 084003 003 999 999 03
095900 1817N 06618W 3926 07733 0416 -165 -250 092003 004 999 999 03
095930 1818N 06621W 3924 07734 0416 -165 -239 098004 004 999 999 03
100000 1818N 06624W 3925 07731 0416 -163 -242 101005 006 999 999 03
100030 1819N 06626W 3928 07726 0416 -165 -222 111003 004 999 999 03
100100 1820N 06629W 3927 07731 0417 -165 -216 113005 005 999 999 03
100130 1821N 06631W 3926 07731 0416 -165 -219 118004 005 999 999 03
100200 1822N 06634W 3926 07731 0414 -165 -214 127004 004 999 999 03
100230 1823N 06636W 3926 07731 0415 -165 -220 121004 005 999 999 03
100300 1824N 06639W 3926 07728 0413 -164 -222 112005 006 999 999 03
100330 1824N 06641W 3925 07732 0415 -163 -220 115005 006 999 999 03
100400 1825N 06644W 3926 07732 0429 -161 -230 132005 005 999 999 03
100430 1826N 06646W 3927 07817 0467 -160 -229 138005 005 999 999 03
100500 1827N 06649W 3926 07743 0428 -160 -224 129003 004 999 999 03
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 311007
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 08 20071031
095530 1811N 06601W 3923 07735 0415 -165 -327 008002 003 999 999 03
095600 1812N 06603W 3926 07730 0415 -167 -334 046002 002 999 999 03
095630 1812N 06605W 3926 07733 0416 -169 -334 060002 003 999 999 03
095700 1813N 06608W 3925 07733 0417 -164 -285 072003 004 999 999 03
095730 1814N 06610W 3924 07733 0417 -165 -282 084003 004 999 999 03
095800 1815N 06613W 3927 07732 0417 -165 -263 084003 004 999 999 03
095830 1816N 06616W 3924 07735 0417 -165 -243 084003 003 999 999 03
095900 1817N 06618W 3926 07733 0416 -165 -250 092003 004 999 999 03
095930 1818N 06621W 3924 07734 0416 -165 -239 098004 004 999 999 03
100000 1818N 06624W 3925 07731 0416 -163 -242 101005 006 999 999 03
100030 1819N 06626W 3928 07726 0416 -165 -222 111003 004 999 999 03
100100 1820N 06629W 3927 07731 0417 -165 -216 113005 005 999 999 03
100130 1821N 06631W 3926 07731 0416 -165 -219 118004 005 999 999 03
100200 1822N 06634W 3926 07731 0414 -165 -214 127004 004 999 999 03
100230 1823N 06636W 3926 07731 0415 -165 -220 121004 005 999 999 03
100300 1824N 06639W 3926 07728 0413 -164 -222 112005 006 999 999 03
100330 1824N 06641W 3925 07732 0415 -163 -220 115005 006 999 999 03
100400 1825N 06644W 3926 07732 0429 -161 -230 132005 005 999 999 03
100430 1826N 06646W 3927 07817 0467 -160 -229 138005 005 999 999 03
100500 1827N 06649W 3926 07743 0428 -160 -224 129003 004 999 999 03
$$
;
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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- Contact:
206
URNT15 KNHC 311017
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 09 20071031
100530 1828N 06651W 3924 07737 0419 -160 -226 136005 006 999 999 03
100600 1829N 06654W 3926 07732 0417 -160 -221 122004 005 999 999 03
100630 1829N 06656W 3926 07731 0416 -165 -209 116004 005 999 999 03
100700 1830N 06659W 3926 07732 0416 -165 -211 132002 002 117 000 03
100730 1831N 06701W 3926 07731 0415 -165 -209 130003 004 106 000 00
100800 1832N 06704W 3926 07729 0414 -165 -211 137005 005 086 000 00
100830 1833N 06707W 3926 07729 0414 -165 -209 135005 006 047 000 00
100900 1833N 06709W 3926 07728 0414 -165 -208 136005 006 024 000 00
100930 1834N 06712W 3926 07731 0414 -165 -210 138006 007 014 002 00
101000 1835N 06714W 3926 07729 0415 -165 -210 139007 007 017 001 00
101030 1836N 06717W 3926 07732 0416 -165 -209 135006 007 015 002 00
101100 1837N 06719W 3926 07731 0416 -168 -209 128007 007 014 002 00
101130 1838N 06722W 3926 07731 0415 -169 -208 127007 007 015 001 00
101200 1838N 06724W 3926 07728 0414 -166 -210 125007 007 016 001 00
101230 1839N 06727W 3923 07732 0414 -165 -227 129004 005 016 001 00
101300 1840N 06729W 3927 07727 0414 -165 -233 134004 004 014 002 00
101330 1841N 06732W 3926 07729 0415 -165 -240 134004 004 014 002 00
101400 1842N 06734W 3924 07731 0413 -165 -243 138004 004 015 002 00
101430 1843N 06737W 3926 07722 0408 -165 -233 138005 005 010 002 00
101500 1843N 06739W 3926 07722 0407 -165 -226 145005 005 011 002 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 311017
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 09 20071031
100530 1828N 06651W 3924 07737 0419 -160 -226 136005 006 999 999 03
100600 1829N 06654W 3926 07732 0417 -160 -221 122004 005 999 999 03
100630 1829N 06656W 3926 07731 0416 -165 -209 116004 005 999 999 03
100700 1830N 06659W 3926 07732 0416 -165 -211 132002 002 117 000 03
100730 1831N 06701W 3926 07731 0415 -165 -209 130003 004 106 000 00
100800 1832N 06704W 3926 07729 0414 -165 -211 137005 005 086 000 00
100830 1833N 06707W 3926 07729 0414 -165 -209 135005 006 047 000 00
100900 1833N 06709W 3926 07728 0414 -165 -208 136005 006 024 000 00
100930 1834N 06712W 3926 07731 0414 -165 -210 138006 007 014 002 00
101000 1835N 06714W 3926 07729 0415 -165 -210 139007 007 017 001 00
101030 1836N 06717W 3926 07732 0416 -165 -209 135006 007 015 002 00
101100 1837N 06719W 3926 07731 0416 -168 -209 128007 007 014 002 00
101130 1838N 06722W 3926 07731 0415 -169 -208 127007 007 015 001 00
101200 1838N 06724W 3926 07728 0414 -166 -210 125007 007 016 001 00
101230 1839N 06727W 3923 07732 0414 -165 -227 129004 005 016 001 00
101300 1840N 06729W 3927 07727 0414 -165 -233 134004 004 014 002 00
101330 1841N 06732W 3926 07729 0415 -165 -240 134004 004 014 002 00
101400 1842N 06734W 3924 07731 0413 -165 -243 138004 004 015 002 00
101430 1843N 06737W 3926 07722 0408 -165 -233 138005 005 010 002 00
101500 1843N 06739W 3926 07722 0407 -165 -226 145005 005 011 002 00
$$
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ExBailbonds
- Tropical Storm
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- Location: Homestead,Fl
- Contact:
Re:
HURAKAN wrote:Am I the only person alive on PLANET EARTH!!!
Yes run for you life!!!! The grim reaper is coming for ya!!!!
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Windtalker2
- Tropical Low
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- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2007 6:28 am
- Location: Davie Florida
Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images
Hello....Is there someone out there? Hello....hello???? No Tropical Storm watches again......It would be the surprise of the century if this made a beeline to South Florida. The media would have a field day.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
330
URNT15 KNHC 311027
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 10 20071031
101530 1844N 06742W 3926 07730 0413 -169 -220 184006 007 012 002 00
101600 1844N 06742W 3926 07730 0410 -169 -219 175006 006 009 002 00
101630 1846N 06747W 3926 07723 0409 -170 -213 171006 006 009 002 00
101700 1847N 06749W 3926 07723 0408 -171 -211 174006 007 007 002 00
101730 1847N 06752W 3926 07720 0403 -170 -208 161005 006 008 001 00
101800 1848N 06754W 3926 07720 0404 -170 -199 161005 005 005 002 00
101830 1849N 06757W 3925 07722 0405 -169 -194 159005 007 002 002 00
101900 1850N 06800W 3926 07721 0407 -165 -190 177008 009 007 002 00
101930 1851N 06802W 3926 07720 0405 -165 -190 174008 009 003 003 00
102000 1852N 06804W 3927 07716 0405 -165 -190 172008 009 005 002 00
102030 1853N 06807W 3926 07721 0406 -165 -186 172008 008 001 002 00
102100 1853N 06809W 3924 07724 0408 -166 -185 183008 009 000 002 00
102130 1854N 06812W 3925 07721 0404 -165 -193 189008 009 001 002 00
102200 1855N 06814W 3927 07714 0402 -163 -193 192008 008 002 002 00
102230 1856N 06817W 3924 07719 0402 -165 -186 188005 006 001 002 00
102300 1857N 06819W 3927 07715 0403 -164 -185 200008 009 001 003 00
102330 1858N 06822W 3925 07721 0403 -169 -187 206005 005 004 002 00
102400 1859N 06824W 3924 07720 0403 -167 -195 200005 006 002 002 00
102430 1900N 06827W 3926 07720 0405 -165 -200 211005 005 000 003 00
102500 1901N 06829W 3924 07725 0412 -165 -199 219004 005 000 003 00
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 311027
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 10 20071031
101530 1844N 06742W 3926 07730 0413 -169 -220 184006 007 012 002 00
101600 1844N 06742W 3926 07730 0410 -169 -219 175006 006 009 002 00
101630 1846N 06747W 3926 07723 0409 -170 -213 171006 006 009 002 00
101700 1847N 06749W 3926 07723 0408 -171 -211 174006 007 007 002 00
101730 1847N 06752W 3926 07720 0403 -170 -208 161005 006 008 001 00
101800 1848N 06754W 3926 07720 0404 -170 -199 161005 005 005 002 00
101830 1849N 06757W 3925 07722 0405 -169 -194 159005 007 002 002 00
101900 1850N 06800W 3926 07721 0407 -165 -190 177008 009 007 002 00
101930 1851N 06802W 3926 07720 0405 -165 -190 174008 009 003 003 00
102000 1852N 06804W 3927 07716 0405 -165 -190 172008 009 005 002 00
102030 1853N 06807W 3926 07721 0406 -165 -186 172008 008 001 002 00
102100 1853N 06809W 3924 07724 0408 -166 -185 183008 009 000 002 00
102130 1854N 06812W 3925 07721 0404 -165 -193 189008 009 001 002 00
102200 1855N 06814W 3927 07714 0402 -163 -193 192008 008 002 002 00
102230 1856N 06817W 3924 07719 0402 -165 -186 188005 006 001 002 00
102300 1857N 06819W 3927 07715 0403 -164 -185 200008 009 001 003 00
102330 1858N 06822W 3925 07721 0403 -169 -187 206005 005 004 002 00
102400 1859N 06824W 3924 07720 0403 -167 -195 200005 006 002 002 00
102430 1900N 06827W 3926 07720 0405 -165 -200 211005 005 000 003 00
102500 1901N 06829W 3924 07725 0412 -165 -199 219004 005 000 003 00
$$
;
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images
Windtalker2 wrote:Hello....Is there someone out there? Hello....hello???? No Tropical Storm watches again......It would be the surprise of the century if this made a beeline to South Florida. The media would have a field day.
Melbourne NWS has already issued a wind advisory for the coastal locations. There is no need for TS watch or warning. These winds are not directly related to storm center.
Looking at radar from Cuba, it appears that the Noel LLC has made turn to the NNW or North and is now remerging off north of the Cuban coast, south of Andros Island. It never reformed under the MLC. Most of convection is now sheared off to the north and east of the center.
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HURAKAN
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388
URNT15 KNHC 311037
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 11 20071031
102530 1902N 06832W 3926 07735 0426 -164 -199 219003 004 000 002 00
102600 1902N 06834W 3926 07725 0411 -162 -199 213004 004 000 003 00
102630 1903N 06837W 3925 07724 0407 -164 -196 209006 007 001 003 00
102700 1904N 06839W 3926 07722 0407 -161 -203 223006 007 004 003 00
102730 1905N 06841W 3926 07724 0407 -163 -199 212006 006 006 003 00
102800 1906N 06844W 3926 07721 0406 -162 -203 212006 007 003 003 00
102830 1907N 06846W 3927 07718 0405 -158 -204 225009 009 006 002 00
102900 1908N 06849W 3924 07721 0404 -159 -204 219009 009 001 003 00
102930 1909N 06851W 3926 07719 0404 -160 -200 235006 006 000 002 00
103000 1910N 06854W 3928 07716 0406 -162 -195 280005 007 000 002 00
103030 1911N 06856W 3924 07722 0405 -160 -197 299007 008 000 003 00
103100 1911N 06858W 3926 07716 0403 -161 -196 300008 009 000 004 00
103130 1912N 06901W 3922 07727 0406 -160 -200 295008 009 005 003 00
103200 1913N 06903W 3928 07719 0407 -156 -203 292009 010 009 003 00
103230 1914N 06906W 3924 07727 0409 -160 -200 289010 011 009 004 00
103300 1915N 06908W 3926 07722 0407 -160 -198 285009 009 048 000 00
103330 1916N 06910W 3925 07725 0409 -157 -204 278010 011 105 000 03
103400 1917N 06913W 3926 07722 0408 -157 -201 283012 013 999 999 03
103430 1917N 06915W 3926 07721 0406 -164 -190 280013 013 087 000 03
103500 1918N 06917W 3924 07727 0408 -165 -182 277010 011 126 000 03
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 311037
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 11 20071031
102530 1902N 06832W 3926 07735 0426 -164 -199 219003 004 000 002 00
102600 1902N 06834W 3926 07725 0411 -162 -199 213004 004 000 003 00
102630 1903N 06837W 3925 07724 0407 -164 -196 209006 007 001 003 00
102700 1904N 06839W 3926 07722 0407 -161 -203 223006 007 004 003 00
102730 1905N 06841W 3926 07724 0407 -163 -199 212006 006 006 003 00
102800 1906N 06844W 3926 07721 0406 -162 -203 212006 007 003 003 00
102830 1907N 06846W 3927 07718 0405 -158 -204 225009 009 006 002 00
102900 1908N 06849W 3924 07721 0404 -159 -204 219009 009 001 003 00
102930 1909N 06851W 3926 07719 0404 -160 -200 235006 006 000 002 00
103000 1910N 06854W 3928 07716 0406 -162 -195 280005 007 000 002 00
103030 1911N 06856W 3924 07722 0405 -160 -197 299007 008 000 003 00
103100 1911N 06858W 3926 07716 0403 -161 -196 300008 009 000 004 00
103130 1912N 06901W 3922 07727 0406 -160 -200 295008 009 005 003 00
103200 1913N 06903W 3928 07719 0407 -156 -203 292009 010 009 003 00
103230 1914N 06906W 3924 07727 0409 -160 -200 289010 011 009 004 00
103300 1915N 06908W 3926 07722 0407 -160 -198 285009 009 048 000 00
103330 1916N 06910W 3925 07725 0409 -157 -204 278010 011 105 000 03
103400 1917N 06913W 3926 07722 0408 -157 -201 283012 013 999 999 03
103430 1917N 06915W 3926 07721 0406 -164 -190 280013 013 087 000 03
103500 1918N 06917W 3924 07727 0408 -165 -182 277010 011 126 000 03
$$
;
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Air Force Met
- Military Met
- Posts: 4372
- Age: 56
- Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
- Location: Roan Mountain, TN
Re:
eastcoastFL wrote:thank you for the explanation. None of the mets want to admit it, i guess its in their contracts to stay behind what ever the nhc publishes.
I am assuming when you wake up that an apology is in order...since the turn has happened and it is doing what we wouldn't admit to.
OH...and BTW...don't be surprised if the center gets pulled even further east under the convection. Weak exposed centers in weak steering flow like to do that.
Sorry your not getting a direct hit by a cat 1 (know thats what ya wanted).
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eastcoastFL
- Category 5
- Posts: 3901
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
- Location: Palm City, FL
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Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images
We really need all that moisture with the system! It is like a rain bomb!
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
836
URNT15 KNHC 311048
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 12 20071031
103530 1919N 06920W 3927 07721 0408 -163 -186 267013 014 130 000 00
103600 1920N 06922W 3924 07730 0414 -162 -192 249013 014 040 000 00
103630 1921N 06925W 3926 07736 0419 -160 -194 250013 014 029 000 00
103700 1922N 06927W 3926 07729 0414 -160 -193 249014 015 017 001 00
103730 1923N 06929W 3927 07724 0411 -160 -191 253016 016 003 002 00
103800 1923N 06932W 3924 07730 0411 -160 -189 251015 016 001 003 00
103830 1924N 06934W 3927 07725 0189 -161 -187 253015 015 000 003 00
103900 1925N 06936W 3924 07180 5166 -160 -188 254013 014 000 004 00
103930 1926N 06939W 3924 06610 5330 -160 -190 256012 013 000 004 00
104000 1927N 06941W 3926 07123 5111 -160 -190 252013 014 000 004 00
104030 1928N 06944W 3926 07556 0177 -164 -186 249010 011 000 004 00
104100 1929N 06946W 3926 07685 0365 -163 -186 237011 013 000 003 00
104130 1929N 06948W 3926 07689 0378 -164 -182 227013 013 004 003 00
104200 1930N 06951W 3926 07709 0395 -160 -187 228017 019 059 000 00
104230 1931N 06953W 3926 07708 0395 -165 -178 227017 018 110 000 03
104300 1932N 06956W 3926 07709 0395 -160 -184 223017 018 999 999 03
104330 1933N 06958W 3926 07713 0397 -160 -186 227014 015 999 999 03
104400 1934N 07000W 3926 07718 0403 -159 -189 230014 014 999 999 03
104430 1935N 07003W 3926 07721 0406 -160 -182 226014 015 999 999 03
104500 1935N 07005W 3924 07729 0410 -160 -173 223016 018 999 999 03
$$
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URNT15 KNHC 311048
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 12 20071031
103530 1919N 06920W 3927 07721 0408 -163 -186 267013 014 130 000 00
103600 1920N 06922W 3924 07730 0414 -162 -192 249013 014 040 000 00
103630 1921N 06925W 3926 07736 0419 -160 -194 250013 014 029 000 00
103700 1922N 06927W 3926 07729 0414 -160 -193 249014 015 017 001 00
103730 1923N 06929W 3927 07724 0411 -160 -191 253016 016 003 002 00
103800 1923N 06932W 3924 07730 0411 -160 -189 251015 016 001 003 00
103830 1924N 06934W 3927 07725 0189 -161 -187 253015 015 000 003 00
103900 1925N 06936W 3924 07180 5166 -160 -188 254013 014 000 004 00
103930 1926N 06939W 3924 06610 5330 -160 -190 256012 013 000 004 00
104000 1927N 06941W 3926 07123 5111 -160 -190 252013 014 000 004 00
104030 1928N 06944W 3926 07556 0177 -164 -186 249010 011 000 004 00
104100 1929N 06946W 3926 07685 0365 -163 -186 237011 013 000 003 00
104130 1929N 06948W 3926 07689 0378 -164 -182 227013 013 004 003 00
104200 1930N 06951W 3926 07709 0395 -160 -187 228017 019 059 000 00
104230 1931N 06953W 3926 07708 0395 -165 -178 227017 018 110 000 03
104300 1932N 06956W 3926 07709 0395 -160 -184 223017 018 999 999 03
104330 1933N 06958W 3926 07713 0397 -160 -186 227014 015 999 999 03
104400 1934N 07000W 3926 07718 0403 -159 -189 230014 014 999 999 03
104430 1935N 07003W 3926 07721 0406 -160 -182 226014 015 999 999 03
104500 1935N 07005W 3924 07729 0410 -160 -173 223016 018 999 999 03
$$
;
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Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images
we may need the rain, but its looking like we won't be getting much of it.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
412
URNT15 KNHC 311057
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 13 20071031
104530 1936N 07008W 3925 07725 0410 -164 -170 222017 018 999 999 03
104600 1937N 07010W 3926 07723 0408 -160 -172 215019 020 150 000 03
104630 1938N 07013W 3926 07723 0408 -157 -176 212021 022 150 000 00
104700 1939N 07015W 3925 07723 0404 -159 -174 201023 025 129 000 00
104730 1940N 07018W 3928 07715 0402 -160 -175 195024 025 091 000 00
104800 1941N 07020W 3924 07723 0404 -160 -180 186024 024 145 000 00
104830 1941N 07023W 3926 07719 0404 -161 -179 178022 022 148 000 03
104900 1942N 07025W 3926 07721 0406 -161 -178 170019 021 999 999 03
104930 1943N 07028W 3926 07720 0407 -160 -176 174017 019 999 999 03
105000 1944N 07030W 3926 07723 0409 -165 -174 173018 019 999 999 03
105030 1945N 07033W 3926 07723 0410 -163 -176 176019 019 140 000 03
105100 1946N 07035W 3926 07725 0409 -160 -187 182019 019 149 000 00
105130 1947N 07038W 3926 07723 0408 -162 -181 184019 019 082 000 00
105200 1948N 07040W 3924 07721 0405 -167 -176 194017 018 077 000 00
105230 1949N 07043W 3924 07720 0403 -164 -182 196015 016 120 000 00
105300 1950N 07045W 3924 07723 0406 -162 -182 189014 015 152 000 03
105330 1951N 07048W 3927 07715 0404 -165 -175 185015 015 131 000 03
105400 1952N 07050W 3927 07717 0403 -164 -178 179015 016 999 999 03
105430 1953N 07053W 3924 07724 0406 -162 -185 172013 015 999 999 03
105500 1954N 07055W 3927 07720 0408 -165 -178 171015 016 999 999 03
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 311057
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 13 20071031
104530 1936N 07008W 3925 07725 0410 -164 -170 222017 018 999 999 03
104600 1937N 07010W 3926 07723 0408 -160 -172 215019 020 150 000 03
104630 1938N 07013W 3926 07723 0408 -157 -176 212021 022 150 000 00
104700 1939N 07015W 3925 07723 0404 -159 -174 201023 025 129 000 00
104730 1940N 07018W 3928 07715 0402 -160 -175 195024 025 091 000 00
104800 1941N 07020W 3924 07723 0404 -160 -180 186024 024 145 000 00
104830 1941N 07023W 3926 07719 0404 -161 -179 178022 022 148 000 03
104900 1942N 07025W 3926 07721 0406 -161 -178 170019 021 999 999 03
104930 1943N 07028W 3926 07720 0407 -160 -176 174017 019 999 999 03
105000 1944N 07030W 3926 07723 0409 -165 -174 173018 019 999 999 03
105030 1945N 07033W 3926 07723 0410 -163 -176 176019 019 140 000 03
105100 1946N 07035W 3926 07725 0409 -160 -187 182019 019 149 000 00
105130 1947N 07038W 3926 07723 0408 -162 -181 184019 019 082 000 00
105200 1948N 07040W 3924 07721 0405 -167 -176 194017 018 077 000 00
105230 1949N 07043W 3924 07720 0403 -164 -182 196015 016 120 000 00
105300 1950N 07045W 3924 07723 0406 -162 -182 189014 015 152 000 03
105330 1951N 07048W 3927 07715 0404 -165 -175 185015 015 131 000 03
105400 1952N 07050W 3927 07717 0403 -164 -178 179015 016 999 999 03
105430 1953N 07053W 3924 07724 0406 -162 -185 172013 015 999 999 03
105500 1954N 07055W 3927 07720 0408 -165 -178 171015 016 999 999 03
$$
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22977
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Tropical Storm NOEL : Discussions & Images
A couple of things I notice:
Convection hasn't moved any to the west overnight.
Upper trof is approaching south Florida from the west to carry Noel out to sea to the NNE later today
Winds along the coast of Florida are NOT due to Noel. Just about all of Noel's effects are east of the center. Noel is not causing the beach erosion, the cold front is.
Convection hasn't moved any to the west overnight.
Upper trof is approaching south Florida from the west to carry Noel out to sea to the NNE later today
Winds along the coast of Florida are NOT due to Noel. Just about all of Noel's effects are east of the center. Noel is not causing the beach erosion, the cold front is.
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