TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

['CaneFreak]

circ remains very well-defined on QUIKSCAT this morning, have to disagree with this being close to a wave

incolclusive as to whether or not it has regained TS status (I have questions about the "uncontaiminated" 40KT vector)

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bas100.png

I agree. I'm not sure how wxman57 says this is nearly an open wave when dvorak is giving it a T3.0.

A dvorak number of 3.0 has absolutely nothing to do with this being nearly an open wave. I have seen so many dvorak numbers of 2.0 with MANY WELL DEFINED WAVES and still no depression status was granted. Dvorak technique ESTIMATES an intensity based on a cloud pattern technique. Quickscat/recon has the final say.

[Chacor]

QuikSCAT wind vectors from 0920Z...

[punkyg]

So hows the shear over Ingrid.
and is the center under the convection.
oh and where did that ball of convection north of Ingrid come from.

Any one gonna one nice and answer my questions?
Oh is recon going out today.

[Chacor]

For what it's worth, TAFB 1145Z fix was T2.0/2.0.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 13:45 UTC

[Derek Ortt]

it is inconclusive as to whether or not this is a TD or a TS... best to keep TD status for now

[hial2]

This board has two reactions: Amateurs enthusiasts cheer because they get to track something; and the pro-mets boo...because they have to track something (which for a lot of us means working late...I was at work for 36 hours straight with Humberto).

C'mon AFM...36 straight hours meant lots of overtime!!..At your salary I'm sure you made,what,an extra 4k??...

['CaneFreak]

So hows the shear over Ingrid.
and is the center under the convection.
oh and where did that ball of convection north of Ingrid come from.

Any one gonna one nice and answer my questions?
Oh is recon going out today.

Current Shear : 12.6 m/s

If you convert this, you should end up with about 25 knots of shear or so. Still pretty ferocious.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 000&loop=9

This thing wont get in a non-sheared environment for at least another 48 hours though. I just dont think it can make it. There is still quite a bit of UL divergence over the system keeping at least a little bit of convection over our system, but the real question is, "HOW LONG CAN SHE HOLD ON?"

[Evil Jeremy]

1 thing is for sure, that Ingrid, regardless of intensity, will pass through a Herbert Box

[jrod]

This board has two reactions: Amateurs enthusiasts cheer because they get to track something; and the pro-mets boo...because they have to track something (which for a lot of us means working late...I was at work for 36 hours straight with Humberto).

C'mon AFM...36 straight hours meant lots of overtime!!..At your salary I'm sure you made,what,an extra 4k??...

The military does not have overtime pay.

[wxman57]

I don't know, the circulation doesn't appear as strong as yesterday, particularly on its western side. In any case, it's time to focus on the real threat, and that's not Ingrid. I'm quite concerned about a major hurricane in the NW Gulf later in the week - coming out of the SW Caribbean Tue/Wed.

[wxman57]

The military does not have overtime pay.

Nor do I!

[stu]

Well for what it is worth, the 06z GGDL now re builds Ingrid to almost CAT1 at the end of the run - this same model also said that this storm would be gone right now so I dont know what to trust now.

[Gustywind]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[hial2]

The military does not have overtime pay.

Nor do I!

I would re-negotiate my contract...during hurricane season,of course!...

[Derek Ortt]

with that upper trough over the Carib? I cannot see a major hurricane in the Gulf out of the SW Carib

[Chacor]

Can we please stop the offtopic posts?

Here's the latest Dvorak IR image...

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 14:15 UTC

[ExBailbonds]

It would appear from the last couple of sat shots that the convection is catching up to the LLC. Does this mean that the shear has relaxed a little?