TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[wxman57]

Ingrid does look better in the last few hours. But in the end, it'll be one of those storms that we'll forget by the end of the season. Watch out for Jerry!

[pavelbure224]

I have to say Ingrid is a fighter

[hurricanetrack]

wxman57- hook me up with some info on your concerns for a major hurricane in the NW Gulf later down the road- might want to do that though in the regular ole talkin tropics section. I am interested to hear your thoughts on a possible threat in the Gulf. If there were to be one, and it were to be in TX, I would have to get my act together early this week and be ready to head over there. Humberto got past me- I don't miss hurricane landfalls- but that one got by me. Anything you can show about a hurricane later in the week in the NW Gulf certainly has my attention.

[Derek Ortt]

there appears to be some increaed divrgence this morning

Also, since the shear has slightly decreased, this also enhances divergence since the air to the north and east of the system is slightly faster than that to the south and west. The divergence equation indicates that this provides slightly more UL divergence (conversely, an increase in shear provides convergence)

[chadtm80]

wxman57- hook me up with some info on your concerns for a major hurricane in the NW Gulf later down the road- might want to do that though in the regular ole talkin tropics section. I am interested to hear your thoughts on a possible threat in the Gulf. If there were to be one, and it were to be in TX, I would have to get my act together early this week and be ready to head over there. Humberto got past me- I don't miss hurricane landfalls- but that one got by me. Anything you can show about a hurricane later in the week in the NW Gulf certainly has my attention.

Check the SW Carib thread in the TT forum

[Evil Jeremy]

...INGRID MAINTAINING 35 MPH WINDS...

[Chacor]

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...BUT A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

They also added "INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID."

[cycloneye]

INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.2N 57.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.7N 59.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 18.4N 60.3W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 19.2N 61.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 62.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 23.0N 64.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 24.5N 64.5W 30 KT


They dont dissipate it as in the 5 AM advisory.

[Chacor]

FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT
INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT
NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING.

[Cyclone1]

THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF
SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL
EVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT
INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT
NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING.

[Cyclone1]

Chacor beat me to it.

[Nimbus]

The current convection this morning will be spinning up the LLC again. That means at least another 24 hours that she will not dissipate. Since she is a surface feature and has been following the shallow BAM the shear forecast appears to be quite severe for several days. By the time the shear lets up there should still be some residual low surface pressure but it may be so shallow that there is no pressure gradient left near the center and nothing spins up.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not really sensing the northerly turn at this point - steering currents suggest continued W or WNW.

I'd consider a Tropical Storm Watch for the northern Leewards.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2007 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 17:13:35 N Lon : 57:28:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.1mb/ 43.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.2 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Center Temp : -67.5C Cloud Region Temp : -62.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[gatorcane]

As I said yesterday why the NHC was not putting up tropical storm/watches for the islands baffled me. Comon there has been no north turn as advertised and she continues to not only look better but move west.

In fact she should continue W to WNW for the next 3-5 days as she remains in the low-level flow.

[CrazyC83]

As I said yesterday why the NHC was not putting up tropical storm/watches for the islands baffled me. Comon there has been no north turn as advertised and she continues to not only look better but move west.

In fact she should continue W to WNW for the next 3-5 days as she remains in the low-level flow.

Not only that, it is possible that Ingrid may become a tropical storm again as soon as this afternoon...

[Derek Ortt]

it would be a minimal TS... you only need about 6 hours worth of lead time for a minimal TS

besides, the NHC does not issue these watches, the gov'ts of the Caribbean and France issue the watches and warnings

[RL3AO]

I see a few of the islands are now in the cone. Very interesting.

[Chacor]

it would be a minimal TS... you only need about 6 hours worth of lead time for a minimal TS

besides, the NHC does not issue these watches, the gov'ts of the Caribbean and France issue the watches and warnings

The TPC does sometimes say "A <tropical storm/hurricane> <watch/warning> is recommended for <location>", though, so they could still do that if it was really necessary.

[RL3AO]

It looks like the UK would be the one issuing watches.