CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tracyswfla]

Jeff Masters....

None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean's likely track. At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast

OH PERFECT!

[Steve]

>>Looking at the GFS in about 18 hrs, I don't see that it even has the TUTT in the solution.

Did you try looking at the Upper Solutions for the GFS? If you're doing 850mb and mean sea level pressure, you aren't going to see an "UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH" unless you know how to extropolate what they look like at the surface (if they even show up).

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFST ... sloop.html

Check out these links. (There are several other atmospheric levels and samplings you can access if you click on the drop-box with the "Sea Level Pressure" on it at the FSU site.

Even better - use the NCEP site (already clicked to UPPER AIR GFS GRAPHICS)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... l_su.shtml



Steve

[Sanibel]

Haven't read previous posts but I'm seeing a big jump north over 280* Anyone else seeing this? GFS is wack.

60mph with dry air is the sign of a powerful storm further downrange. Instinct says big hurricane in width.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL...I bet that is safe to say "Gulf of Mexico Coast", which goes from Mexico to Florida.

[vacanechaser]

>>Looking at the GFS in about 18 hrs, I don't see that it even has the TUTT in the solution.

Did you try looking at the Upper Solutions for the GFS? If you're doing 850mb and mean sea level pressure, you aren't going to see an "UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH" unless you know how to extropolate what they look like at the surface (if they even show up).

Here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Check out these links. (There are several other atmospheric levels and samplings you can access if you click on the drop-box with the "Sea Level Pressure" on it.



Steve

maybe this will help..




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[dizzyfish]

Jeff Masters....

None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean's likely track. At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast

Huh? I thought there were two flights scheduled tomorrow. One in the morning and one in the afternoon. ???

[Steve]

Good job Jesse. I edited my second link to the upper air data from the NCEP/NOAA model site. TUTT alive and kicking in the model data.



Steve

[Frank2]

It'll be interesting to see how Dean interacts with that trough/forecast cut-off low, which is fairly sharp for this time of year...

...per what some think, hurricanes, even major hurricanes (such as Flossie), can't "power" themselves through other weather systems (again, Flossie's weakening was a good example - that "power-through" thinking is a Hollywood fantasy)...

Hurricanes exist in a fluid environment, and, behave that way - they don't "power through" anything...

[sunnyday]

Thanks to that statement by Jeff Masters, those on the east side of Florida seem to be dodging the bullet once again if things stay as they are predicted. It always amazes me how they miss so many over there when they are positioned like a sitting duck for storms. Anyway, we should pray that the storm dissipates before it gets into the Gulf. The residents there have more than paid their dues in the past.

[Sanibel]

Hello? Anybody home?

I think it's pulling up. This is important.

[TampaFl]

From Miami NWS morning AFD:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 150841
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
441 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER OK/KS AREA WITH
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO ERN GULF OF MEX. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN
ATLC EXTENDING SOUTH TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WEAK AND DIFFUSE LOW LVL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WEAKLY CONNECTED TO A
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TD#5 OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. DEAN OVER FAR
ERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUING MOVING WEST AT 18 MPH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WX CONDS WILL GREATLY DEPEND
ON FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DEAN. GFS INDICATES BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS THE PRESS GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND
DEAN TIGHTENS OVR WRN ATLC. WL HOLD THE WINDS DOWN FOR THE TIME
BEING AND NOT INDICATE BREEZY CONDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN. WL ALSO GO CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY AND ONLY
INDICATE SCT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
BRINGS DEAN TO JUST SOUTH OF HAITI BY FRIDAY MORNING. TOO EARLY TO
KNOW WHAT TRACK DEAN WILL FOLLOW AFTER THIS OR WHAT EFFECTS, IF
ANY, WILL DEAN HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS... ALL
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON DEAN...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ADVISORIES.

[Steve]

>>Hello? Anybody home?
>>I think it's pulling up. This is important.

LMAO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Lock in "Tropical Forecast Points". It hit the last one perfectly. It's also wobbling within its sphere, so some north/south jogs should show up in the visible. For now, it looks like it's on schedule with the NHC's plot.

Steve

[tracyswfla]

Hello? Anybody home?

I think it's pulling up. This is important.

Pulling up? Pulling North? what what : )

[Praxus]

Well I sent the latest track to co workers who have family in Jamaica and told them they should start basic preparations.
A direct hit from a cat 3 would be a disaster.

[BigD]

At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast.

He's coming right at us!!! Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

[BensonTCwatcher]

>>Looking at the GFS in about 18 hrs, I don't see that it even has the TUTT in the solution.

Did you try looking at the Upper Solutions for the GFS? If you're doing 850mb and mean sea level pressure, you aren't going to see an "UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH" unless you know how to extropolate what they look like at the surface (if they even show up).

Here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Check out these links. (There are several other atmospheric levels and samplings you can access if you click on the drop-box with the "Sea Level Pressure" on it.



Steve

maybe this will help..




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Thanks Steve and Jesse,

I did look at the upper air. I guess I should have said the GFS surface forecast does not look like the TUTT has ANY effect on the track of Dean. I think that is curious, even though the TUTT is forecast to weaken. If Dean intentifies i.e. gains more height, it seem likely that the trough would have more of an effect on the track than the recent runs have showed? We'll see I guess.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z cranking up

[KFDM Meteorologist]

6 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

[Bgator]

I see a bit of a NW jog the last frame, but that could be a wobble...

[Wx_Warrior]

12 z cranking...fingers crossed again!