TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[gatorcane]

Luis, looking interesting for you and the northern Leewards...

The big TUTT over the Central Caribbean seems to be finally retrograding back West...You can see it moving west slowly on this loop.

This is what we would expect for September.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

Anybody is it me or is the shear less than yesterday, she appears to be heading straight for the northern islands as she is trying to organize again?

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like Ingrid's low level circulation center is more than 50% exposed and you can also see a long trail of cirrus clouds in behind the system showing how much shear is currently over the storm!

The wave in behind Ingrid seems more impressive so far... and I say so far because as most people know things can change in the tropics very quickly!

[Windtalker2]

Gatorcane:

Props to you for sticking to your guns on this one. I don't know what the final outcome will be, but so far you have outdone the pros in my opinion!

I second that. All along you have not waffled like most have. Good job.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[Nimbus]

Looking at the water vapor imagery the shear does look like it is relaxing early. Don't know yet whether they will remove that 3 day severe shear forecast or merely postpone it. Could a ridge be building in that would follow the cutoff ULL over the Caribbean west?

[cycloneye]

Notice that header says,Tropical Storm Ingrid.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 16 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-115

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM INGRID
FLIGHT ONE
A. 18/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0708A INGRID
C. 17/2000Z
D. 19.2N 61.3W
E. 17/2145Z TO 18/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Chacor]

Given the forecast it could simply mean CARCAH thinks it'll be a TS when the plane flies.

[cycloneye]

The LATEST at 15:45 UTC

[cycloneye]

Is getting closer and closer to Antigua and Barbuda.I would not be surprise if a watch is issued at 5 PM for some of the islands,given the continued westward movement.

[msbee]

Just listened to Steve Lyons on TWC.
he says Ingrid isn't doing what she is supposed to be doing.

He said they still think she will begin a turn but that the way it looks now she will graze the Northern Leewards, and the Northern Leewards could get a lot of heavy rain.

[HURAKAN]

Just listened to Steve Lyons on TWC.
he says Ingrid isn't doing what she is supposed to be doing.

Bad Ingrid, Bad Ingrid!!!

Latest track:



24 hrs ago:

[Vortex]

CMC brings it right through the northern leewards
UKMET a close call

[Cyclone1]

At this point, I would think it would pretty difficult to forecast very far out. Weak surface features are a fickle.

[Vortex]

Looking at some of the 12Z forecasted synoptics Ingrid is peeking my curiosity..I'll update in abit

[cycloneye]

Antigua and Barbuda observations

Still anything strong there but the winds are now from the NNE.

[Cyclone1]

Looking at some of the 12Z forecasted synoptics Ingrid is peeking my curiosity..I'll update in abit

The term is pique, not peek, by the way. Ya know, just to be nitpicky.

[HUC]

Anjd in my location,winds are from the W to WSW,5 to 12 kh...

[Vortex]

12 GFS if the synoptics play out as advertised this could be near the Bahamas in 5 days..More later

*I think TS watches should be issued from Guadeloupe northward at 5pm

[Vortex]

Looking at some of the 12Z forecasted synoptics Ingrid is peeking my curiosity..I'll update in abit

The term is pique, not peek, by the way. Ya know, just to be nitpicky.

I'm still waking up--thanks fro the grammar lesson