Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[miamicanes177]

I just looked at my calendar to be sure I wasn't losing my mind. It is indeed September 9th. Not June 9th. Not July 9th. Today is September 9th. I'll say this becomes a big enough problem to get 200-300 pages in a week.

[Weatherfreak000]

92L had Convection earlier and it didn't "Take off".


I find this all rather ironic when earlier today I was seeing "TD at 10PM" posts.


I'd have to say "Dropped from NRL at 10PM" seems more logical now. This system just doesn't have the organization to hold together long enough to get anything going.

I personally believe 90L has a better chance to develop than this. 90L just needs a reduction in wind shear while 92L needs more surface convergence and a wind shear reduction.


Now don't get me wrong, i'm not altogether "writing this thing off", but i'm thinking with some confidence now if something were to spin up, it ain't going to be a SFL Major Hurricane you guys can breath easy.

With that i'm going to estimate..this storm needs another 96-120 Hours to become named, too close to SFL to organize into a major.

All the pro-mets here (including Derek Ortt, Wxman57, etc.) believe that 90L has the least chance of developing of the 3 invests...not to burst your bubble since you are Gulf Coast resident and concerned about your neck of the woods.

Although 90L has more convection, is does not contain a LLC or even a MLC...just some "eddies" according to I think Wxman57...which reminds me, I kind of like Eddie's ice cream but I think Ben and Jerry's is a bit better...but now I don't eat anymore of that crap.

That's true, 90L has the least chance because of Wind Shear, but crazy things happen (STS Andrea, TS Barry) I have to recognize a freak TS popping up.

I actually don't believe either will develop.

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH
OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A PRONOUNCED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N ALONG THE WAVE. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W
AND 60W. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST
4 TO 5 HOURS IN THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14.5N TO
16N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
FROM MARTINIQUE TO JUST SOUTH OF GUADELOUPE.


8 PM Discussion.

[windstorm99]

The reason its gone poof maybe because of trof to its north associated with the extropical low.

[Derek Ortt]

it went poof because the dynamics have not allowed it to sustain convection

There is NOTHING at the surface. it's not shear or anything, there is NOTHING to currently sustain convection

[HURAKAN]

it went poof because the dynamics have not allowed it to sustain convection

There is NOTHING at the surface. it's not shear or anything, there is NOTHING to currently sustain convection

Derek, do you believe DMAX will allow convection to develop over or near 92L?

[Vortex]

give it a few hours...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still has a nice low cloud circulation, even if the storms have poofed.


I haven't given up on this.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice MLC but no low level system. Convection could very well form near or over the MLC tonight. That would help to form some convergents at the low levels...I've seen it happen before. We will see.

[windstorm99]

caribbean caribbean caribbean is been the same song this entire hurricane season so far.

[Vortex]

I've watched this since it emerged off the coast of Africa about 7-8 days ago...It wasn't until late friday night that it developed any deep convection. Saturday it then waned just like today...The show isn't over...

[Sanibel]

Yeah, I was trying to tell people it was engrained in an unconducive airmass. It could still form, but it is fighting the greater force of that giant Atlantic airmass it is at the end node of.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SHIPs suggests nothing much happens for about 2 days, and then a switch is thrown

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

SHIP .. 20KTS ... 23KTS .. 28KTS .. 36KTS
DSHP .. 20KTS ... 23KTS .. 28KTS .. 36KTS


...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

SHIP .. 42KTS ... 54KTS .. 65KTS .. 70KTS
DSHP .. 42KTS ... 54KTS .. 65KTS .. 70KTS

[Derek Ortt]

it can generate convection tonight, but it almost certainly won't be sustained into tomorrow afternoon

[Vortex]

Notice ship report(7pm) very near system...

SHIP S 2300 17.90 -58.50 125 344 60 17.1 - - - - - 29.98 +0.03 81.9 83.8 65.7

Dewpoint is 65.7

Buoy about 140 miles south has a dewpoint of 77.9

observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.04 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 91.2 °F


This tells me that the ridge to the north has drawn in stable air to the system with dewpoints in the mid 60's...This is temporary!

[Blown Away]

MLC swirl w/o convection, will 92L remain an invest in this condition?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Vortex-

dewpoints get that low in the Deep Tropics?

Dewpoints below 70ºF rarely happen here in the mid-latitudes this early in Autumn.

[ConvergenceZone]

As I said earlier, this was never an impressive system

Never had a LLC... didn't we learn from the infamous 99L that never had a LLC? Cannot sustain convection with the LLC to focus the low level convergence

Yea, you are right Derek, I think everyone jumped on this one, thinking it would develop(including me) prematurely. It's easy to get excited this time of year though, since we are so close to the peak. It just bursted so quickly... I was expecting SOME decrease in convection, but as you can tell, the convection it's all but gone, just some high clouds left....Even the blues are dissipating on each frame of the satellite. I'm going to keeping my eye on the invest in the East Atlantic though, as the NHC seems much more bullish on that invest, although that one will take awhile.

[Blown Away]

Vortex your persistent w/ development even w/o convection.

[Vortex]

yes..0045utc indicates a resurgence of moisture at the low levels...Give it another 3 hours...