OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[Jam151]

It doesn't matter if 94L will dissipate in 12-24 hours. The question should be, is this a TD/TS/STS NOW? I think it's painstakingly obvious that this system, which the NHC acknowledges has at least 35 knot winds, has a LLC and is much more organized than several named storms observed over the last 2 seasons. Also, why are they not even bothering with a RECON when they decided to fly into a less impressive hybrid last May??? Their inconsistency kills me.

[bvigal]

(sorry, have logged in 3 times in 8 minutes!)
LIBATION, that's what I'm missing!! Yes, send those socks. It got so cold I closed all the windows earlier, brrrrr! Judging from leaky skylight and the towel permanently on the kitchen floor, we haven't had much rain today.

Luis, stormcarib has a St. Thomas report - they are getting it for sure!
I'm hunkered, I'm hunkered! Ok...I'm in a cozy robe with a warm libation and a good book. Does that count? Need any socks, girl?

Did you all know a high wind advisory for PR/VI was in effect since early this morning, and has been extended until tomorrow?

[bvigal]

If this were prior to Nov 30, or threatening the mainland, a TD or TS would have been issued late last night or early this morning, no doubt in my mind!

[cycloneye]

(sorry, have logged in 3 times in 8 minutes!)
LIBATION, that's what I'm missing!! Yes, send those socks. It got so cold I closed all the windows earlier, brrrrr! Judging from leaky skylight and the towel permanently on the kitchen floor, we haven't had much rain today.

Luis, stormcarib has a St. Thomas report - they are getting it for sure!
I'm hunkered, I'm hunkered! Ok...I'm in a cozy robe with a warm libation and a good book. Does that count? Need any socks, girl?

Did you all know a high wind advisory for PR/VI was in effect since early this morning, and has been extended until tomorrow?

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AST TUESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL 4 PM AST TUESDAY.

WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 4 PM AST TUESDAY.

[Squarethecircle]

I would agree, but I doubt that they would make it TS quite yet.

[Stratosphere747]

It doesn't matter if 94L will dissipate in 12-24 hours. The question should be, is this a TD/TS/STS NOW? I think it's painstakingly obvious that this system, which the NHC acknowledges has at least 35 knot winds, has a LLC and is much more organized than several named storms observed over the last 2 seasons. Also, why are they not even bothering with a RECON when they decided to fly into a less impressive hybrid last May??? Their inconsistency kills me.

Because you just don't simply ring the hanger and say "Hey guys, fire it up we have a swirl of clouds for you to fly into pronto."

It's a bit more complicated than that, especially this time of year. Also you did notice that they do have a flight scheduled if needed?

[RL3AO]

It doesn't really matter. It will be over PR in 10 hours, or DR in 20. If it isn't upgraded at 11, it won't be upgraded most likely.

EDIT: Convection improving greatly.

[caribepr]

I just got off the phone with a friend who lives on his boat, anchored in Great Harbour, Jost Van Dyke (a British Virgin Island). He says it's been blowing between 35 and 45 with brief higher gusts for quite awhile now.
Here it's calmed down again, rain stopped.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here we go again. "I know better than the NHC! It should have been upgraded! Ignore the AMSUB core data that suggests it doesn't meet warm core standards!"

Although it has been slowly organizing, AMSUB core data does not meet the standards for classification. It is very close, but data is inconclusive.

I think btangy's previous post was a fair assessment. I think this one is a "borderline" system for the TPC. Regardless, I think the gradient-induced winds (in the islands) are nicely covered by the local NWS statements and other advisories.

[cycloneye]

GFDL wakes up again after it dissipated it at 6 hours in last run.

WHXX04 KWBC 102328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z DEC 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.2 63.4 265./13.0
6 18.3 64.6 274./12.1
12 18.6 66.0 283./13.0
18 18.7 67.8 274./17.0
24 18.7 69.3 270./14.4
30 18.5 71.0 264./16.1
36 18.5 73.1 269./20.5
42 18.2 74.8 260./15.8
48 18.2 75.7 265./ 9.3
54 18.3 76.7 277./ 8.8
60 18.4 78.3 275./15.5
66 18.2 79.5 260./12.1
72 18.0 80.2 252./ 7.0
78 18.0 81.1 273./ 8.0
84 17.6 82.3 250./12.6
90 16.7 83.1 222./11.0
96 16.3 83.8 240./ 8.4
102 16.1 84.4 256./ 5.9
108 16.1 85.4 266./ 9.6
114 16.1 86.2 271./ 7.9
120 16.4 87.1 287./ 8.5
126 16.4 87.6 277./ 5.3

[Cyclone1]

And even if it's not upgraded NOW, there's always post season.

[Coredesat]

I would like to see some detailed microwave imagery before I make any judgment calls on 94L. The system has a very well defined mid-level circulation, and it's easily confused for a LLC even on visible imagery. QuikSCAT, ASCAT, and AMSUB imagery have been inconclusive.

Of course, if it goes out, recon would be the ultimate confirmatory tool here.

[Jam151]

Here we go again. "I know better than the NHC! It should have been upgraded! Ignore the AMSU core data that suggests it doesn't meet warm core standards!"

That's not even the NHC's argument in the STDS for no classification.

THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

Convection has developed much closer and quite possibly even directly over the LLC since the statement was issued. Regardless of the AMSU data being inconclusive, I highly doubt that we are dealing with anything less than a SUBtropical entity.

This system didn't suddenly form out of the blue overnight. This thing has been monitored by ameteurs and Accuwx (hate to say it but it's true) for the last several days. Are we that incapable of scheduling a recon for a system threatening land (esp a vulnerable area like Hispaniola) several days in advance?

[RL3AO]

With the new convection very close to the center, this now qualifies as a subtropical cyclone in my mind.

[dixiebreeze]

What time Tuesday will Recon be headed out to 94? Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Mj,this is for those in the boat.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
741 PM AST MON DEC 10 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...

ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

* UNTIL 845 PM AST

* AT 733 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER
MOVING WEST AT 11 KNOTS

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.
SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

[cycloneye]

What time Tuesday will Recon be headed out to 94? Thanks.

If they go to check it,it will be at 11:30 AM EST the departure from Keesler Base as there are no planes in St Croix.

[Evil Jeremy]

Boom near the center. Gonna be an interesting Durinal Minimum tonight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[dwsqos2]

Cyril E. King Airport Observations...

TIST 102253Z 33016G32KT 300V010 10SM BKN013 OVC021 24/22 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 33032/2245 SLP078 T02390217

[cycloneye]

San Juan Radar



A very interesting radar loop that all have to check out.That ball is dropping fast.