CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[ConvergenceZone]

that's good that the GFS is taking it further south. Hopefully it will miss all the islands and then Mexico may need to keep an eye out for this one

It's not good at all, Convergence Zone. It's disastrous news for Texas. This GFS model run and the previous couple are saying that the ridge is going to be very strong. They portray a weak Dean however. A strong Dean, like what the NHC is predicting of Category 3+ is going to go north of where a weak Dean would go. If the GFS therefore takes it into the Yucatan/Mexico, a strong Dean would go through the Yucatan Channel and into Texas. This is bad.

well, don't get me wrong, I don't want it to hit land anywhere, but at least if it hit the USA, there wouldn't be the substantial loss of life than if it hit one of our islands..(hopefully it can avoid both).. As the old saying goes, "buildings can be replaced, but lives can't"... Of course it would be best for USA or Mexico if it just stayed out to sea, but don't think that's going to happen like I had originally thought.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This run looks similar to the runs we saw a few days back. I am still not too worried about Dean, but seeing that the track is shifting back west through the Caribbean, I will definitely need to watch this closely after Erin is gone.

[LAwxrgal]

Got to be some seriously strong ridging to the north of the system that the GFS is depicting, for the storm to go WNW all the way to Mexico.

But as others have said, the models aren't going to be accurate now until the upper air data gets sampled and input into them.

[alienstorm]

If you look at the visible loop it is definitely not heading due west anymore, I would say W-WNW or possible WNW.

[harmclan]

It'll definitely be interesting to see what the models pop out tomorrow after recon has flown. I don't see the trough being as weak as the GFS is currently forecasting and agree with KFDM, this will probably be a bit more north.

http://ustropics.net

[tracyswfla]

If you look at the visible loop it is definitely not heading due west anymore, I would say W-WNW or possible WNW.

Can you give us a link?

[vaffie]

that's good that the GFS is taking it further south. Hopefully it will miss all the islands and then Mexico may need to keep an eye out for this one

It's not good at all, Convergence Zone. It's disastrous news for Texas. This GFS model run and the previous couple are saying that the ridge is going to be very strong. They portray a weak Dean however. A strong Dean, like what the NHC is predicting of Category 3+ is going to go north of where a weak Dean would go. If the GFS therefore takes it into the Yucatan/Mexico, a strong Dean would go through the Yucatan Channel and into Texas. This is bad.

well, don't get me wrong, I don't want it to hit land anywhere, but at least if it hit the USA, there wouldn't be the substantial loss of life than if it hit one of our islands..(hopefully it can avoid both).. As the old saying goes, "buildings can be replaced, but lives can't"... Of course it would be best for USA or Mexico if it just stayed out to sea, but don't think that's going to happen like I had originally thought.

No problem. Also, keep in mind that the GFS is not that great of a tropical model--and we shouldn't rely on it, especially for a 9 day forecast. The GFS was and is still completely clueless about Tropical Storm Erin for instance--still until yesterday portraying it as a weak tropical wave going into Mexico, whereas it's now a strengthening tropical storm going into Central Texas. The models that we like to lambast--like the NAM and the Canadian were right on mark with it--though at first they seemed crazy outliers.

[Scorpion]

I would be very concerned if I was in the Lesser Antilles right now. The potential for explosive deepening is pretty high.

[boca]

It loooks like in the floater that Dean is moving N of due west or WNW on this floater.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

The models keep trending further south. I feel bad for those in Texas with Erin, they might have to worry about Dean cutting thru the Yucatan and possibly affecting them as well.This is all conjecture at the moment.

[Scorpion]

Looks WNW to me too

[alienstorm]

If you look at the visible loop it is definitely not heading due west anymore, I would say W-WNW or possible WNW.

Can you give us a link?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Does anyone have a shear map out for a few days? I thought that the shear was going to be quite low in front of Dean, to allow for continued strengthening.

Also, intensity does have a significant impact on the direction of a storm. A stronger storm is more likely to be affected more by the upper levels of the atmosphere and those sterring currents. It also is more affected by coriolis (Spelling?) it seems. Also, a larger storm can also have a greater outward affect on the the atmosphere around it... really powerful storms tend to be able to "lean on" ridges a little stronger, causing some bending to them. (I've seen this a few times before)... they can't go through a wall, but they do seem to exert a little influence that a smaller, weaker storm just doesn't.

[sunnyday]

Local Palm Beach met just said Dean might hit Central America or the Gulf, but it looks like the east coast of Fl. will be missed as things look now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well, in this case place the climo history for this time of year against the GFS with no dropsonde data and it is what is...algorithms. I will be suprised if the ridging stays that stronng for another 7 days with no feature to weaken it trough, cut off low, or even a surface low that can pop up ( perhaps the one shown near SW FL) Odds say that there is a N turn in Deans future which increase greatly with his strenght.

Next 24-72 hours will be intertesting

[HURAKAN]

It looks so cool and so small compared to Erin and other weather systems!!!

[destruction92]

Wasn't there a storm last year that the GFS put into there too at this point that ended up instead going N and then NE and didn't even hit the US at all? It too was "supposed to" miss the trough and fooled many.

ABSOLUTELY YES!

LET'S NOT FORGET ERNESTO OF LAST YEAR!!! IT WAS FORECAST TO BE A GOM STORM DUE TO A "STRONG" SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IT ENDED UP AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST AROUND THE SAME TIME THAT DEAN MIGHT AFFECT THE U.S. IN AAUUGGUUSSTT!

"Ernesto made landfall near Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, early in the morning on August 28. At one point the storm was predicted to become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and threaten parts of the Gulf Coast, a grim possibility in light of the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's landfall.[30] However, Ernesto moved much farther east than anticipated, and made landfall as a tropical storm on the southern tip of Florida on August 29. Two people died in Florida in road traffic accidents attributed to the weather conditions, as the cyclone slowly moved northward across the southern half of the peninsula. Ernesto regained tropical storm strength as it crossed Florida and emerged from land near Cape Canaveral, and was just below hurricane strength when it made landfall again in North Carolina on August 31."
TRACK: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

[msbee]

Thank you for all of your responses.

Yes, we do have challenges that the US do not have and I am worried that our interests, basically our lives do not get set aside. We have families, friends, our lives are in the islands.

I just want to say that all of the Dean threads seem to be pushing the cart before the horse.

Cannot we all gather together here in the basin, ask for expert advice without the armchair mets to know exactly what is going on and where?

Vieques, Salinas, San Juan, Ponce, Isabella, all of Puerto Rico. But let us not forget

Culebra
Us Virgin Islands
British Virgin Islands
St Croix to the south
Angilla
Saba
St Kitts
Nevis
Antigua
Montserrat
Guadeloupe
Dominica
Martinique
St. Lucia
St. Vincent
Off to east Barbados
Grenada
Trinidad and Tobago

I could probably name every cay on each island and I am sure I missed a few. My father was a Geography Professer at one of the major US universities. I knew every inch of the caribbean since I was a child.

I grew to love them before I came to live here but I know for a fact, this is my home and only home matters.

So please let us get back to basics and worry about the horse for now. 8 days out we can worry about the cart.

Please, that is all I ask.

I do not know if you realize when you live on a island a a hurricane strikes, you cannot run away.

It must be nice to have I-95 running in both directions getting you out..

On my island we do not have a traffic light.

How do you think we feel when we depend on a ferry that probably not run for days? That is our food?

Oops forgot, you always have Publix. Sorry.

yes, you forgot me, as irina posted. St. Maarten reporting in here.
we are carefully watching. People are out today preparing. I see the gas stations are busy.
The harbor is preparing. Mariners are urged to get their boats in the lagoon for safety as we do expect high seas.
read our daily paper here for the latest
http://www.thedailyherald.com/
you can also check this site for our official forecast.. the met office is monitoring it all.
http://www.meteo.an/

Please know I did not forget you. I struggled over Sint - Saint and figured that you knew you were in our thoughts.

Sint or Saint..doesn't matter
actually the Dutch side is Sint Maarten and the French side is Saint Martin.
confusing as hell

[Sanibel]

"Dinky Dean"? If you recall, some of the strongest storms of 2005 started as small circular TS's exactly like this 'dot' Dean is showing. Including Ivan and TD10. The windfield is large seen around Dean in the bands reaching far out on either side.

Look at the NW Atlantic Loop. I can't help but seeing this as a deep-diving trough:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Weatherfreak14]

Local Palm Beach met just said Dean might hit Central America or the Gulf, but it looks like the east coast of Fl. will be missed as things look now.

East coast is not out of the woods yet, but they may find the way out in a couple of days. Still anybodys guess where its going to go, especially now its moving a bit to the WNW.

[msbee]

I love this line from the link Msbee provided,

"Nobody in his right mind who has ever experienced a major hurricane hit would wish for one, yet that is exactly what the islands and their people must get ready for. Better safe than sorry."

That's the God awful truth.....

great comment, right??