CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[DESTRUCTION5]

Local Palm Beach met just said Dean might hit Central America or the Gulf, but it looks like the east coast of Fl. will be missed as things look now.

East coast is not out of the woods yet, but they may find the way out in a couple of days. Still anybodys guess where its going to go, especially now its moving a bit to the WNW.

Let me guess..Ferrel...

[HeatherAKC]

Yes, Sanibel. Looks like that trough is diving south to me. What implications does this have? Do the current model runs take this feature into account?

[jasons2k]

Re: Ernesto: That storm couldn't get its act together for the longest time. It kept reforming a new center under the convection to the NE. By the time it finally gelled, it was too late for it to move west. Utterly, completely different set of circumstances.

[Brent]

Yes, Sanibel. Looks like that trough is diving south to me. What implications does this have? Do the current model runs take this feature into account?

They show Dean missing it but I'm really not sure. The small size makes it more likely to be picked up(not saying it will though).

I'm really confused here, I don't like uncertainty especially since this thing is about ready to explode.

[Scorpion]

I am not discounting a Florida hit because the stronger Dean gets the more north he will go. It's that simple. If Dean gets further north near the northern islands it will also get closer to the trough that will influence its track even more.

[artist]

"Dinky Dean"? If you recall, some of the strongest storms of 2005 started as small circular TS's exactly like this 'dot' Dean is showing. Including Ivan and TD10. The windfield is large seen around Dean in the bands reaching far out on either side.

Look at the NW Atlantic Loop. I can't help but seeing this as a deep-diving trough:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

that has been my concern - such a huge windfield around him.

and what Brent said and Scorpion-

They show Dean missing it but I'm really not sure. The small size makes it more likely to be picked up.

I'm really confused here, I don't like uncertainty especially since this thing is about ready to explode.

[HeatherAKC]

Can anyone remember a storm in recent memory in which the models began to suggest a totally different scenerio after the atmospheric conditions were sampled and recon flew into the storm?

Just curious about how much effect any new data tomorrow could actually have.

[Kennethb]

The lastest gfs looked a little supicious as it showed a tropical storm in the central Carribean.

The one consistent thing I see in the last few gfs runs is that it is sniffing out a building ridge, as it brings Dean north and the west/west northwest. Being a week away the strenght and timing of the ridge remain to be seen.

However, being the gfs and a week away, is the model missing a trough or some other feature that suddenly appears. Next week's track could be determined by long wave pattern over the pacific and its affect down stream.

Regardless it will be interesting to see each model run and how Dean moves.

[destruction92]

Re: Ernesto: That storm couldn't get its act together for the longest time. It kept reforming a new center under the convection to the NE. By the time it finally gelled, it was too late for it to move west. Utterly, completely different set of circumstances.

Who says that Dean has not tried to reform its center several times before?
By the time a storm starts to "gell" or intensify, it will start moving more poleward, not due west like some of the models are showing, like the GFDL into Central America and GFS into Mexico.

"By the time it finally gelled, it was too late for it to move west."
I respectfully disagree, its the other way around. It is never too late for a storm to start moving POLEWARD as it begins to "Gell" or intensify.

Wow, I feel like an advertiser for Dr. Scholl's...by the way, are you gellin' like a mellon?

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!

There are still 4 more hours until the next advisory but I have to say that Dean may be playing with hurricane status.

[southerngale]

msbee and all of you in the islands... you're in my prayers and let's hope it doesn't strengthen any/much and nobody takes a direct hit.

[tronbunny]

I cannot fathom an intense hurricane maintaining the same latitude for 40 degrees

This refers to the Euro last night.
Now with so many others jumping the westward ho! bandwagon...
Chalk one up for the persistent Atlantic ridge, eh?

[Scorpion]

I'd like to see a new Quikscat

[vaffie]

The lastest gfs looked a little supicious as it showed a tropical storm in the central Carribean.

The one consistent thing I see in the last few gfs runs is that it is sniffing out a building ridge, as it brings Dean north and the west/west northwest. Being a week away the strenght and timing of the ridge remain to be seen.

However, being the gfs and a week away, is the model missing a trough or some other feature that suddenly appears. Next week's track could be determined by long wave pattern over the pacific and its affect down stream.

Regardless it will be interesting to see each model run and how Dean moves.

Good points. GFS generally has a habit of leaning towards troughs and away from ridges. If there is even a slightest weakness in a ridge half the time it will be the first model to curve a storm out to the north or to sea. So the fact that about 10 out of the last 14 model runs haven't gone out to sea is an indication, but just an indication, that the ridge is going to be fairly strong.

[fci]

Local Palm Beach met just said Dean might hit Central America or the Gulf, but it looks like the east coast of Fl. will be missed as things look now.

East coast is not out of the woods yet, but they may find the way out in a couple of days. Still anybodys guess where its going to go, especially now its moving a bit to the WNW.

If and when Dean is West of 80-81; I will deem that SE Fl and the Palm Beaches are out of the woods.
Until then I will watch.

If this were October, west of 80-81 would not suffice but now I will feel out of range.

So; it is several days until we are clear.

[cheezyWXguy]

The storm has taken a tiny jog to the wnw, maybe .1-.2 degrees north. The rest you see right now is the expanding and organizing of the CDO, and the eyewall forming. In an hour, the storm should be back to moving W, and the forecast track will probably not be changed much if at all. Also, the trough, is not that strong, even according to Jeff Masters. Regarless, the trough, will likely not extend THAT far south. 12N is one hell of a low point for a trough this time of year, and will likely not pick up Dean, especially at the way its organizing now

[Sanibel]

Yes, Sanibel. Looks like that trough is diving south to me. What implications does this have? Do the current model runs take this feature into account?

GFS must be discounting it for either not being strong enough or not being at the right level to pull Dean up. Or, thinking Dean will go under it.

As someone noted last night, the CONUS flow is zonal connoting a broad ridge setting up over the US. So you have two features here conflicting (or at least LOOKING like they are conflicting) a broad High that will confirm the low, west-track GFS just ran -or- the diving trough that will take Dean north of forecasted track.

Beats me, but the latter is not good for Florida if the ridge takes it west after being pulled-up.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Does anyone have a quickscat image that would show the winds now? -or do that product only get issues in intervals too?

[Steve]

>>Look at the NW Atlantic Loop. I can't help but seeing this as a deep-diving trough:

Which one? There already is a TUTT out there.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/latest_eastwv.gif

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Where's the deep diving trough? Really. Here's two highres water vapor selections - 1 static, 1 loop.



Steve

[vacanechaser]

latest vis sat looks to be further north.. off track a bit... could be a trend.. will have to wait and see...that could change the model run completely

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team