CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[storms in NC]

Just got home and WOW! I see it moving NWBy W which is 300 to 305 from what I can see here. and is going to miss the next point by NHC JIMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The lastest gfs looked a little supicious as it showed a tropical storm in the central Carribean.

The one consistent thing I see in the last few gfs runs is that it is sniffing out a building ridge, as it brings Dean north and the west/west northwest. Being a week away the strenght and timing of the ridge remain to be seen.

However, being the gfs and a week away, is the model missing a trough or some other feature that suddenly appears. Next week's track could be determined by long wave pattern over the pacific and its affect down stream.

Regardless it will be interesting to see each model run and how Dean moves.

Good points. GFS generally has a habit of leaning towards troughs and away from ridges. If there is even a slightest weakness in a ridge half the time it will be the first model to curve a storm out to the north or to sea. So the fact that about 10 out of the last 14 model runs haven't gone out to sea is an indication, but just an indication, that the ridge is going to be fairly strong.

That may be true, however, that was an identified problem that they tried to "fix" and resolve for this year's use. They could very well have overcompensated.

[EyELeSs1]

looks like the center of Dean is near 12.6N 45.6W and moving a bit more WNW does anyone else see this?

[Derek Ortt]

i think the apparent northward motion is more due to the storm ebcoming mroe symmetric... the clouds are expanding north

[windstorm99]

The storm has taken a tiny jog to the wnw, maybe .1-.2 degrees north. The rest you see right now is the expanding and organizing of the CDO, and the eyewall forming. In an hour, the storm should be back to moving W, and the forecast track will probably not be changed much if at all. Also, the trough, is not that strong, even according to Jeff Masters. Regarless, the trough, will likely not extend THAT far south. 12N is one hell of a low point for a trough this time of year, and will likely not pick up Dean, especially at the way its organizing now

Jeff masters:

No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be.

[cycloneye]

looks like the center of Dean is near 12.6N 45.6W and moving a bit more WNW does anyone else see this?

Yes,in the TWC loop it was clear the change in direction to a more WNW around 290 I say.

[destruction92]

i think the apparent northward motion is more due to the storm ebcoming mroe symmetric... the clouds are expanding north

With this occuring, the center could be relocating to the north. So either way, expect a northward shift of guidance.

[Steve]

Storms in NC,

Use your "Zoom" feature. The center went straight through the target point.

>>GFS must be discounting it for either not being strong enough or not being at the right level to pull Dean up. Or, thinking Dean will go under it.

>>As someone noted last night, the CONUS flow is zonal connoting a broad ridge setting up over the US. So you have two features here conflicting (or at least LOOKING like they are conflicting) a broad High that will confirm the low, west-track GFS just ran -or- the diving trough that will take Dean north of forecasted track.

I thought you were all over these forums. The prog for the already existing TUTT (which must be the diving trough you have mentioned since the rest of the flow is zonal +/- FWIW, I was the one who posted about it) is that it fills in, becomes a cut off and migrates/retrogrades west of Dean several degrees further north and west. That's what I read anyway.

Steve

[deltadog03]

I agree Luis....I see around 290...and its been that way for a couple of hours too. I have the center around 12.85 and 45.8??

[Dean4Storms]

If the GS IV mission is tomorrow there won't be any significant changes to the models till after 00z Friday at the earliest.

[cycloneye]

Maybe that will be temporary but every stairstep it takes it puts the Leewards BVI,U.S.VI and Puerto Rico in a more bad position.

[vacanechaser]

The lastest gfs looked a little supicious as it showed a tropical storm in the central Carribean.

The one consistent thing I see in the last few gfs runs is that it is sniffing out a building ridge, as it brings Dean north and the west/west northwest. Being a week away the strenght and timing of the ridge remain to be seen.

However, being the gfs and a week away, is the model missing a trough or some other feature that suddenly appears. Next week's track could be determined by long wave pattern over the pacific and its affect down stream.

Regardless it will be interesting to see each model run and how Dean moves.

Good points. GFS generally has a habit of leaning towards troughs and away from ridges. If there is even a slightest weakness in a ridge half the time it will be the first model to curve a storm out to the north or to sea. So the fact that about 10 out of the last 14 model runs haven't gone out to sea is an indication, but just an indication, that the ridge is going to be fairly strong.

that may not be true.. the gfs was adjusted during the winter if i remember corretly.. now, did they mess with the entire model and change the physics, or did they tweak it somehow to undo the troughs?? remember like you said the troughs always seemed to get the storms.. now, not so much.. if they did tweak it to weaken the troughing ideas, and not change the core of the model, then we may be seeing the same probelm, just in reverse.. weaker troughs but the ridge is over done..

looks like the system has moved off track to the north a bit.. the latest forecast points trail off now south of the apparent movement.. could be a trend, or just a wobble.. will have to see after more images come in.. .


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[destruction92]

If the GS IV mission is tomorrow there won't be any significant changes to the models till after 00z Friday at the earliest.

So 2 more days of erroneous data and garbage model runs.

[z-bail]

What does the plane flying in have to do with where the storm goes? I am just an amateur and I thought they flew the plane in to basically locate the center and get an accurate pressure reading and how wide the eyewall is, etc...
I didn't think it had anything to do with forecasting it's future path. I thought the path was determined by the position of high's and low's and steering currents that are in the path of the storm.
Can you explain what they might find when the plane goes in that depicts whether it will be a west runner or make it curve north? Or what is it that the models use from the flight that makes a difference?
I'm sure I'm not the only one with this question...Thanks.

[windstorm99]

Maybe that will be temporary but every stairstep it takes it puts the Leewards BVI,U.S.VI and Puerto Rico in a more bad position.

I was just thinking that....

Might the gulf streamjet pick up something the models are not seeing at the moment?We'll find out tommorow.

[Lowpressure]

I agree Luis....I see around 290...and its been that way for a couple of hours too. I have the center around 12.85 and 45.8??

Definite move towards more 290 ish. Still forming and propably will need a wobble alert soon.

[Steve]

>>that may not be true.. the gfs was adjusted during the winter if i remember corretly.. now, did they mess with the entire model and change the physics, or did they tweak it somehow to undo the troughs??

I would say no. It's been having the same problems it always has, and I have mentioned this on several threads in the regular Talking Tropics board the last few weeks as it still wanted to put in troughs and fronts where there weren't likely to be anyway. The teleconnections from the WPAC concerning troughs have been money the last few weeks. GFS OVERDID troughs that were transient or tilted and quickly lifted out.

Steve

[WmE]

What does the plane flying in have to do with where the storm goes? I am just an amateur and I thought they flew the plane in to basically locate the center and get an accurate pressure reading and how wide the eyewall is, etc...
I didn't think it had anything to do with forecasting it's future path. I thought the path was determined by the position of high's and low's and steering currents that are in the path of the storm.
Can you explain what they might find when the plane goes in that depicts whether it will be a west runner or make it curve north? Or what is it that the models use from the flight that makes a difference?
I'm sure I'm not the only one with this question...Thanks.

With the recon models have a better idea how to initialize this system, hence becoming more accurate. Furthermore another plane will check the environmental conditions around Dean (troughs etc.) tomorrow.

[vaffie]

That may be true, however, that was an identified problem that they tried to "fix" and resolve for this year's use. They could very well have overcompensated.

Possibly, but if you look at all of the GFS model runs so far for TD4/TS Dean, you will see that they have all been north of where it actually ended up, so I seriously doubt they've overcompensated. It has been saying WNW for days, whereas it was actually going WSW.

[SouthFloridawx]

Also remember as Dean become more intense it will move more poleward, rather than just with the mid to lower levels.