CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

If you want something more compact than this you may get Tracy or a black hole!!!

Going from TS to H!!

[jhamps10]

Eyewall is forming most defentially. I expect this to be a hurricane at 5 if eyewall development continues.

[Steve]

haha, you got the +pressure in there before I could add it.

But yeah, it's a given time sampling which is supposed to be input for future data. Sometimes models are way off because the 'initialized' position/strenght/speed are incorrect. This results in errors that compound over the length of the run. e.g., if they start a storm off 50 miles too far south or too weak or whatever, it's going to behave differently in the model's interpretation of future movement and/or intensity than if they had more exact data.

Steve

[vaffie]

Don't get me wrong--I certainly don't wish for eyewalls--they're bad for people if you know what I mean, but it will make it a whole lot easier to track movement.

[Scorpion]

Once this gets into a moist environment the envelope will increase significantly. I am expecting a rather large hurricane in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 151728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.3 45.2 275./17.1
6 12.9 46.9 288./18.3
12 13.2 49.0 278./20.0
18 13.6 51.1 283./21.4
24 14.2 53.5 282./24.3
30 14.5 55.8 278./22.0
36 14.7 58.3 273./24.5
42 14.6 60.1 269./17.2
48 15.1 62.5 280./23.0
54 15.6 65.0 282./24.9
60 15.6 67.2 271./21.7
66 15.9 69.4 277./20.6
72 16.0 71.4 273./19.8
78 16.2 73.3 276./17.7
84 16.4 74.9 279./15.8
90 16.6 76.7 276./17.1
96 17.0 78.4 283./17.3
102 17.5 80.2 284./17.6
108 17.7 82.1 277./17.9
114 17.9 83.7 275./15.7
120 18.1 85.5 278./17.4
126 18.4 87.0 281./14.0


12z GFDL.

[Lowpressure]

He is really small, but effecting a large area around the system. Expect him to grow into something a bit nastier than most of us want to deal with. Carib islands should be very careful here, as I am sure they will be. This has the look of trouble.

Sorry Scorp did not realize we posted similar posts 1 minute apart.

[Agua]

What is not depicted in that graphic are the storms that went through the box and did not strike south Florida.

[hial2]

So you shift the box over to the east by a block and you get the same effect, in fact, seems like that would be a better 'box', as ALL of the tracks passed right thru it.


Right?

Run and copyright "The Big D" box before I do....

[jhamps10]

120 18.1 85.5 278./17.4

12z GFDL for dean.

[oyster_reef]

is it still possible Dean has a chance to "hop" the islands and move towards South Florida or the Carolinas or has it already moved too far west?

[Derek Ortt]

tracy would ahve fit inside of this things inner-core

[destruction92]

>>Who says that Dean has not tried to reform its center several times before? By the time a storm starts to "gell" or intensify, it will start moving more poleward, not due west like some of the models are showing, like the GFDL into Central America and GFS into Mexico.

You've been fighting a battle for an east coast storm for the last two days. It might happen. It might not. I have no idea. But every post (I'm not going to copy and paste them all), you keep finding a way to implicate Dean as an east coast system.

Steve

And you don't think that everyone of your posts tries to implicate Dean as a GOM system? Please...
There are several other people on this board who think what I am thinking.

Jeff masters:
"No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be."

Since you do live near the GOM, shouldn't you be more focused on TS Erin?

Arrgghhhh. Let the battle begin: GOM vs. Atlantic (GOM currently has homecourt advantage according to the models, but that does not necessarily imply it will win )

[Steve]

>>is it still possible Dean has a chance to "hop" the islands and move towards South Florida or the Carolinas or has it already moved too far west?

Yes. All solutions from recurvature to Central America are most definitely still on the table.

Steve

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DEAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 44.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 15.08.2007 12.6N 44.7W WEAK

00UTC 16.08.2007 12.9N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.08.2007 13.3N 52.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.08.2007 14.0N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2007 14.9N 60.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2007 15.6N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2007 16.4N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2007 16.4N 71.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2007 16.7N 75.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2007 18.2N 80.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.08.2007 19.0N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2007 20.1N 88.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.08.2007 21.6N 92.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET

[HURAKAN]

is it still possible Dean has a chance to "hop" the islands and move towards South Florida or the Carolinas or has it already moved too far west?

Possible, yes. Likely, NOT. Dean seems to be a Caribbean storm according to what we know so far.

[storms in NC]

Storms in NC,

Use your "Zoom" feature. The center went straight through the target point.

>>GFS must be discounting it for either not being strong enough or not being at the right level to pull Dean up. Or, thinking Dean will go under it.

>>As someone noted last night, the CONUS flow is zonal connoting a broad ridge setting up over the US. So you have two features here conflicting (or at least LOOKING like they are conflicting) a broad High that will confirm the low, west-track GFS just ran -or- the diving trough that will take Dean north of forecasted track.

I thought you were all over these forums. The prog for the already existing TUTT (which must be the diving trough you have mentioned since the rest of the flow is zonal +/- FWIW, I was the one who posted about it) is that it fills in, becomes a cut off and migrates/retrogrades west of Dean several degrees further north and west. That's what I read anyway.

Steve

I was talking about the next check point LOLOLOL

[jhamps10]

TROPICAL STORM DEAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 44.7W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042007



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 15.08.2007 12.6N 44.7W WEAK

00UTC 16.08.2007 12.9N 48.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.08.2007 13.3N 52.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.08.2007 14.0N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 17.08.2007 14.9N 60.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2007 15.6N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2007 16.4N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.08.2007 16.4N 71.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2007 16.7N 75.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2007 18.2N 80.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.08.2007 19.0N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2007 20.1N 88.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.08.2007 21.6N 92.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12z UKMET

Mexico???

[Sanibel]

Thanks for clarifying that Steve. If it is at TUTT level then GFS is right for ignoring it. However, I think there is some trough quality to it since it bends back towards TD5 and seems to be inhibiting it like trough engrainment does sometimes. Just a technical point there - maybe true, maybe not.

That "pull-up" currently seen on satellite is partly due to the CDO expanding on the NE side. It has the illusion of looking like an unexpected turn. However, I think Dean is going north of the next forecast point. Why it is doing that, (either trough tug or weak ridge) is up to you.

[Steve]

>>I was talking about the next check point LOLOLOL

I agree that it appears like it will be north of the next check point.

Steve