TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[gatorcane]

I am struggling to see how this misses the islands. This may not even make it to the leeward Islands

This looks to be yet another Carib hurricane from the looks of this

another low-rider maybe hitting Central America?

Three in a row?? That would be unbelievable and I would be truly floored....

[Windtalker2]

Lastest GFDL run puts the storm NE of puerto rico this coming weekend...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007091012-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I think that run is to much of a NW track. I feel it will move on a more WNW track to skim the northern Islands.
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[Sanibel]

91L isn't pulling the surface flow clouds in the ridge above it into curvature like Felix did. I'm not sure what this means? I think the center will resolve closer to 11N or so rather than NHC's 9.5N

Remember, 2007 has seen tracks further south than originally thought. CV systems are undercutting the synoptic and missing their influence.

[KWT]

another low-rider maybe hitting Central America?
Three in a row?? That would be unbelievable and I would be truly floored....

It may well get into the caribbean but I'll be a touch surprised if a weakness doesn't open up and send it NW at one point, while the ridging is still there its not as large as it was with Dean or Felix for that matter, there is forecast to be a weakness around 70-80W on quite a few of the models so it'll be around that sort of longitude where the main latitude will be gained but not enough IMO to lessen any threat to land.
IF it gets past that then it will probably end up being another low rider but thats a very long way off indeed.

[Cyclenall]

My thoughts in % on this Invest:

First % chance of Invest 91L becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 63%
Tropical Storm: 55%
Hurricane: Unknown

[Sanibel]

I don't need the Quickscat to see this is resolving closer to 11N with the center. I sometimes think some in here wait for the NHC report before realizing things.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is the latest QS, from this morning that shows an, elongated and broad area of low pressure. That's exactly what we're seeing on satellite at this moment also. Looks like we're seeing a little more convection. Maybe if it continues we'll see something spin up from this.

[Derek Ortt]

I do not see any center near 11N

I am seeing one closer to 10N and it is becoming slightly better defined this afternoon

[x-y-no]

I don't need the Quickscat to see this is resolving closer to 11N with the center. I sometimes think some in here wait for the NHC report before realizing things.

I don't know what you're seeing - I see an elongated circulation with an axis mostly below 10N.

[RL3AO]

What percentage would you give 91L of becoming a depression by 11pm ET tomorrow?

[Sanibel]

I might be wrong, but it appears to me that the most northern round convection blob has an internal rotation that is now the incipient center.

Near 11N-41W

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am struggling to see how this misses the islands. This may not even make it to the leeward Islands

This looks to be yet another Carib hurricane from the looks of this

another low-rider maybe hitting Central America?

Three in a row?? That would be unbelievable and I would be truly floored....

Due to the time of year, I highly doubt that this will hit central America like Dean and Felix did. However, I can see this easily becoming yet another caribbean storm, and many will have to watch it's progress. It might even be a SE U.S. or GOM threat down the road (depending on the steering mechanisms at that time).

[abajan]

What percentage would you give 91L of becoming a depression by 11pm ET tomorrow?

Let's just say I'd be very surprised if it weren't by then. It's looking quite "good", IMO.

[canegrl04]

What percentage would you give 91L of becoming a depression by 11pm ET tomorrow?

Let's just say I'd be very surprised if it weren't by then. It's looking quite "good", IMO.

Yep.More like 11AM if not earlier

[punkyg]

Hey guys 91L is showing dark red again on the rainbow pic
same ex92L. i really think it could possibly become better organized tonight, but then again it could do like today and really do nothing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING IN THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[AJC3]

I always thought the very late night/early morning showers and occasional t-storms that form just offshore the Texas coast in Summer had something to do with convergence offshore due to difference in frictional effects, and that this weakened during the day as the sea-breeze set up.


But I never actually heard that anywhere official.

That's also a contributing factor - an increase in speed convergence in onshore flow. Essentially, when you have moderate to strong onshore flow, air "piles up" along the coast - i.e. more air flows into the coastal zone than departs from it since (as you touched upon) shoreward flowing winds move faster than (although in the same direction as) the corresponding winds over land due to frictional effects.

But irrespective of whether there is onshore flow or not, a marine air mass is more unstable at night.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

gets into caribbean in 4-5 days,
and then a trough digging over the US in 5-6 days
may exert a NW pull....

[canegrl04]

gets into caribbean in 4-5 days,
and then a trough digging over the US in 5-6 days
may exert a NW pull....

This one needs the attention of US residents unlike Dean and Felix.

[Brent]

I am struggling to see how this misses the islands. This may not even make it to the leeward Islands

This looks to be yet another Carib hurricane from the looks of this

I agree, it's way too far south and west to miss the islands. 10 N/40 W? Yeah, this will make the Caribbean.