INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[Gustywind]

5 PM Meteo-France barely in shape this late afternoon compared to this morning http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Note that NRL site has it to 13,8 N 60,6 W 1009hpa 25 kts 2045 UTC...looking very very good right now give less than 24h hours...we should have a td in our hands at this rate...

[canegrl04]

5 PM Meteo-France barely in shape this late afternoon compared to this morning http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Note that NRL site has it to 13,8 N 60,6 W 1009hpa 25 kts 2045 UTC...looking very very good right now give less than 24h hours...we should have a td in our hands at this rate...

I don't know her name,but she has been giving the trop updates on TWC for the past few hours.I just heard her say 97L isn't going to develope. How irresponsible and unprofessional

[cpdaman]

isn't going to develop sounds good, but please tell me it wasn't vivian brown maybe she just meant wont develop rapidly but needs to be watched

[cycloneye]

The Latest

[cycloneye]

I am now in the cone.

[HurricaneRobert]

I am now in the cone.

The little bubbly thing actually

[gerrit]

I am now in the cone.

Me too

Are you worried? I know it doesn't help, but I'm not.

[cycloneye]

I am now in the cone.

Me too

Are you worried? I know it doesn't help, but I'm not.

Not because of the wind,but I am worried about the possible flooding and mudslides this may bring.

[mightyerick]

Mah Gosh!!!! Wunder Blog has 96L and 97L as tropicla depression
Look at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Hurric ... amp=200709

the last section in 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season summary...

I think they must wait for a while.

[mightyerick]

Really!!! IT HAS AN EYE

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LESSER ANTILLES 242030Z SEP 07//
WTNT04 KNGU 242030Z
UNCLAS//N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 59.0W TO 15.7N 64.7W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 50NM NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1011MB. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (85F/30C). SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
REGION, ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 252030Z
SEP 2007.//

[mightyerick]

Ouch!!!! Sorry... 97L has no an eye thingy, i put that message in the wrong forum. I was talking about 94L.

[HUC]

Perhaps we are in the evening minima of the convection???I don't see the system developped soon,and it's look like the SW shear is impacting the convective's blobs...So,with this kind of situation,think that convective cells may redevelopped anywhere during the night,and not necessarly around the focus of the low...Only an opinion!!!!!

[gerrit]

I am now in the cone.

Me too

Are you worried? I know it doesn't help, but I'm not.

Not because of the wind,but I am worried about the possible flooding and mudslides this may bring.

You're right there. As for the wind, I don't think it will be a lot yet by the time the system is in our area..

[Gustywind]

Perhaps we are in the evening minima of the convection???I don't see the system developped soon,and it's look like the SW shear is impacting the convective's blobs...So,with this kind of situation,think that convective cells may redevelopped anywhere during the night,and not necessarly around the focus of the low...Only an opinion!!!!!

Absolutely i'm quite agree with you...in this early stages with this perturbed area we can see flaring up of new cells anywhere at any time so let's continue this monitor this HUC... this season has been so nasty let's see what pan's in the next couple of hours...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The track models are very confusing- some recurve
it before florida. Others bring it well south of Florida.
Based on the current models, I feel little concern for 97L.
So that means Florida is not "model targeted" for NOW?

Someone tell me, is there any way 97L could pose
a threat to florida? Being a resident here I am wondering this.
I have read tons of discussions on ridges and troughs by the
NWS and cannot understand what ramifications those synoptics
might have for 97L. I know that obviously the Islands are the
primary threat right now, but I would like to know do the
current scenarios curve it east or push it south of florida and
is there any reason for concern in florida?

Sorry this question is just driving me nuts.
And don't get me wrong- I don't want a hurricane hitting anywhere.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TWD 8:05pm

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1010 MB...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W/61W HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
THIS EVENING A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF MARTINIQUE IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME....THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY
WEDNESDAY. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE MAINLY N OF
LOW CENTER COVERING FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

97L may develop in the short term but look at that SW flow coming from SA, not sure how a system can survive that shear.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/2345 UTC 14.0N 61.2W TOO WEAK 97L