OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

Long flight. Will they land in St, Croix?

[Evil Jeremy]

How long will it take for them to make it to the storm itself?

[cycloneye]

2000Z 3:00 PM EST,this with the timechange now in effect.

[Coredesat]

With the new convection very close to the center, this now qualifies as a subtropical cyclone in my mind.

Not without a confirmed LLC. Looks can be deceiving.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

It looks like the convective burst is expanding, while the LLC (?) is moving W toward it. It looks like the western half of the LLC (?) will be engulfed. It certainly looks like organization, despite NW shear via the UL. There is a prominent MLC.

Edit: The western side is under the convection.

[wxman57]

The center is easiest to find using surface obs (see plot below). It appears to be just east of the British Virgin Islands near 18.2N/64.8W. As you can see, winds around the center are only 5-15 kts. However, that area of squalls 50 miles northwest of the center may have some gusts to 40-50 kts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I may not have the knowledge of the nhc, but I will tell it how I see it. This is at the very least a tropical depression, and if there is a area of tropical storm force winds. Maybe even a tropical storm. Any time a well defined LLC forms and develops convection over it, that is a clear sign of something.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With the new convection very close to the center, this now qualifies as a subtropical cyclone in my mind.

Not without a confirmed LLC. Looks can be deceiving.

Its clear theres a LLC. Looks can be deceiving, but normally once a LLC gets going its there. But yeah its always safe to have recon. What time does it get in.

[cycloneye]

[RL3AO]

The low is getting close to PR. I don't think the NHC will name it.

[cycloneye]

10/2345 UTC 18.4N 64.3W T2.0/2.0 94L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

TD 17 at 10 PM EST?

[Derek Ortt]

I'd say TS Olga based upon the wind reports

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

10/2345 UTC 18.4N 64.3W T2.0/2.0 94L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

TD 17 at 10 PM EST?

I would think so. But reading other peoples minds I'm not good at.

[Coredesat]

Currently passing over 41043.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

Last hour there was a wind report of 29 kt from the ENE, gusting to 35 kt, and a pressure of 1012 hPa.

If the next hourly update shows a shift in the winds, I'd agree with the TS assessment.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'd say TS Olga based upon the wind reports

Ah, your first comment here on this, or at least the first one I caught. I liked your statement last night. Where do you think this will end up?

[Blown Away]

Wow this caught me by surprise. Looks good on IR. I would love to see how the local media handles this if it forms into Olga.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Coredesat]

With the new convection very close to the center, this now qualifies as a subtropical cyclone in my mind.

Not without a confirmed LLC. Looks can be deceiving.

Its clear theres a LLC. Looks can be deceiving, but normally once a LLC gets going its there. But yeah its always safe to have recon. What time does it get in.

It's not clear there's a LLC because QuikSCAT, ASCAT, and microwave imagery don't indicate a definitive LLC right now. There's a very impressive upper- to mid-level circulation associated with the system.

[CrazyC83]

Wasn't there a 36 kt ship report?

Anyway, I'd say it is about 80% likely there is a defined closed circulation, but I am not completely positive.

[Category 5]

Look at this, does anyone else see multiple spins?

[btangy]

If the blob of convection persists for 3-6 more hours, then it may be reason enough to upgrade to a depression/storm, especially if the low level center reforms underneath the deep convection or the convection migrates to the existing low level center. The key thing to watch is whether this trend is transient and fades away after a few hours whereby the convection again becomes disorganized or is the start of a organizing trend with the convection becoming prominent near the low level center warming the troposphere through a deeper layer and essentially annihilating the cold core aloft. But, I must agree that this is very close to classification. Persistence will determine whether it gets named now.