Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[chadtm80]

[gatorcane]

CMC has backed way off on this system...but still moves it into South Florida:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=072hr

yep...and with some ridging to the north still in place...storm takes an eery Katrina-esque track toward NOLA

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

But as a much weaker system probably encountering strong shear.

Shear? Not with a big high to the north steering it West at 15-20 mph. The environment will be very favorable for development. The question is will 92L ever get going? We should hope it does not.

[RL3AO]

So true Mike. I think if anyone would have said Dean could make landfall in Belize would have been laughed at about 5 days ago.

From its formation, Dean has gone 5.9 degrees north and 50.8 degrees west. That is one strong ridge. I think it is very scary what this system could do and of course a South Florida system is a GOM system as well.

[JPmia]

I will say that if this does develop and threaten Florida, it could catch some by surprise. Mike your comments are quite ominous.

[storms in NC]

Here is a link to the Hurricane Betsy plot...the only storm that I can remember would be close to 92l that also had a similar, not exactly the same, but similar high pressure regime over it

Click here for the link.

Holey moley! Can you imagine the traffic on S2K if a storm tracked like that one? Sheesh! LOL

I think there would be a lot more traffic on S2K if a storm tracked into Texas or the Carolinas.
There seems to be a great deal of more S2K members who are from Texas, Louisiana, or NC compared to Florida.
But anyways, I digress.
I think that system may threaten Florida though.

I have not seen not one person from NC to say it was coming here Nor when Dean was on track to here. I think everyone said No way Dean would come here. Now do we wish for the rain well YES we need it. But it just is not going to happen here. We will have to be HOT

I Quit the Dean thread cause of All the TX people. I read it everyday. But there was too many teens on there, Sorry if I step on any toes. Off my box.

[gatorcane]

I will say that if this does develop and threaten Florida, it could catch some by surprise. Mike your comments are quite ominous.

I agree, the news is so concentrated on Dean but yet 92L could be much more of a problem for us....

[Comanche]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml

[windstorm99]

[RL3AO]

It is just slowly organizing. Not quite sure why a TCFA was issued.

[mascpa]

TCFA ?

[RL3AO]

TCFA ?

Tropical
Cyclone
Formation
Alert

from the Navy.

[Canelaw99]

Tropical cyclone formation alert - issued a few pages back

[windstorm99]

Floater for 92L has been added....

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like we are getting some good outflow on the south side of the system!

[storms in NC]

Floater for 92L has been added....

Well that is a good thing. Don't have to ZOOMMMMMM LOL

[ronjon]

From NWS Melbourne AFD:

FRI-SUN...FCST WILL DEPEND ON FUTURE TRACK/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DISORGANIZED T-WAVE BTWN 50W-60W. ATTM...MID-RANGE HPC/NHC
COORDINATED FCST BRINGS A SPOT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FRI-SAT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT... WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THRU THIS TIME FRAME.

[Weatherboy1]

For what it's worth, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has a low pressure area of some sort approaching the east central Florida coast in the Saturday timeframe. No telling when the wave will spit out a low pressure area, and if it does, how organized it might get. But this map from HPC does seem to suggest anything that DOES develop could track slowly toward Florida.

Here's the graphic:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif

You can also read a forecast discussion here:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[windstorm99]

would like to see what wxman57 has to say about 92L...

[Stormcenter]

If 92L was in the Bahamas I'd be worried but somehow I'm not right now.

[gatorcane]

I think the low is trying to form at 23N 56W.

It's moving WNW right now...