OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[bvigal]

Why the discussion if it is or isn't a closed low???
"SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007 - SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED..." what does that say?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why the discussion if it is or isn't a closed low???
"SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007 - SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED..." what does that say?

Some people don't care to read???

[cycloneye]

Folks,if you dont see me for a long period of time tonight or tommorow is because the power may go as it has begun to rain hard with pretty strong winds.

[btangy]

Look at this, does anyone else see multiple spins?

My guess is there's strong helicity in the storm environment, so one is getting supercell-like development. Would watch for waterspouts on the N shores of the islands.

[Coredesat]

Why the discussion if it is or isn't a closed low???
"SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007 - SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED..." what does that say?

I'm not entirely sure why they said that when it's not 100% definitive that there is one, especially with the multiple swirls evident on radar.

[Cyclone1]

Oooh good point.

[caribepr]

Thanks, Luis. Luckily, everyone I know that lives on boats was aware and took precautions (but I'll be calling 5 islands in the a.m. to be sure everyone is ok). It's been pouring here for quite awhile now, just starting to ease up. Hopefully no landslides on your side

[Category 5]

I can't find an LLC, but I can spot three different swirls on radar. If thats the case, thats gonna really be a factor on keeping 94L, 94L.

[Jam151]

Why is everyone using radar to try to find an LLC? Radar is picking up on the mid and upper-level vorticies, which are common in weaker/organizing systems.

The LLC, which has been evident in visible satellite imagery all day, is currently on the eastern edge of that ball of convection.

[MiamiensisWx]

Okay, I think it meets sufficient criteria for classification as of the last 30 minutes. Convection is firing directly over the LLC, which is very close to Puerto Rico. The NHC has an obligation to issue a special advisory for TS or STS Olga. The center will be less than 100 miles from the eastern shores of Puerto Rico, and it may scrape the N coast based on current motion in this loop. I think the increasing organization is erasing any doubts regarding the validity of this LLC. It is present. Any possible landfall may occur within the next ~12 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Undoubtedly, there are multiple swirls, but its proximity to land and classification may warrant an upgrade.

Hi, Olga?!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
842 PM AST MON DEC 10 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF ST THOMAS AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 1045 PM AST

* AT 840 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 40 KNOTS OR GREATER DUE
NORTH OF ST THOMAS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONFINED TO THIS AREA AND ARE LIKELY WITHIN 50
MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN AND EAST TO 50 MILES NORTH OF ST THOMAS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 1852 6491 1840 6562 1949 6571 1917 6465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 024DEG 29KT 1859 6512

$$

RA

[Coredesat]

Why is everyone using radar to try to find an LLC? Radar is picking up on the mid and upper-level vorticies, which are common in weaker/organizing systems.

The LLC, which has been evident in visible satellite imagery all day, is currently on the eastern edge of that ball of convection.

We're not using radar to locate a LLC. I haven't seen evidence of one on any microwave imagery.

[MiamiensisWx]

Hmm. I think I can see a possible low-level vortex per this SSMI image. Look SE of the convection.

[Coredesat]

Okay, that image was not out when I made my assessment. That would more than likely be a LLC.

[Category 5]

There it is.

[Cyclone1]

Olga?

[MiamiensisWx]

I smell an upgrade at 11 p.m. EST. Additionally, I suggest Puerto Rico should remain alert. The SSMI image and satellite data indicates the LLC is just offshore. 94L should be treated as STS Olga because of expansive >34 kt winds, especially over water. Organization is increasing. Current motion indicates the LLC may scrape the northern coast of Puerto Rico, possibly passing very close to Luis and others in San Juan. Any WSW deviation would support a landfall in PR.

[Blown Away]

Given it's December does anybody think the NHC will be cautious upgrading to a named system to avoid a media frenzy?

[CrazyC83]

They must be seeing something we aren't in terms of lack of a circulation. After all they can't really be cautious since tropical storm warnings would be needed immediately...

[JonathanBelles]

Given it's December does anybody think the NHC will be cautious upgrading to a named system to avoid a media frenzy?

If they wont upgrade based on weather because of the media, then they arent forecasting the weather, but rather avoiding the media. I wish that would stop.

I think it is at least a TD right now.