Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[deltadog03]

outlfow on west quad has really improved. If that can continue for the next 12-24hours. I think we can see a cat 1

[Evil Jeremy]

True. Just like Dean and Felix, the stronger the storm, the more it feels the effects of the ridge. But for now, the focous is on the through.

[HenkL]

URNT11 KWBC 312356
97779 23564 40252 8001/ 04900 07035 2321/ /0007
RMK NOAA3 0916A NOEL OB 07 KWBC
LAST REPORT


Mission over.

[cpdaman]

outlfow on west quad has really improved. If that can continue for the next 12-24hours. I think we can see a cat 1

if this continued for 12-24 more you would see much more than a cat 1, it 15 mph away from that now.

that is why i asked the two questions i did a half hour ago, because this has my attention

also checking the recon observations and the infared, the plane did not really sample the coldest clould tops in the last couple hours, it basically flew south on the western periphery of them at 6pm 22.5/77 and then westward and northward, so i wonder what the plane will show (if anything more when it sample's that area)

[Thunder44]

Who here thinks TS Warning for FLorida at 11PM tonight?

It will be close. But TS force winds could still stay offshore. Most likely they'll wait until it looks more definite.

[cycloneye]

The next plane departs shortly for another mission:

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 01/0300, 0600, 0900Z
B. AFXXX 1016A NOEL
C. 01/2345Z
D. 25.6N 78.0W
E. 01/0200Z TO 01/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[gatorcane]

this rapid strenghtening should be of no surprise to anybody.....

given the high oceanic heat content and the fact that we saw it maintain itself OVER CUBA with no problem....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

this rapid strenghtening should be of no surprise to anybody.....

given the high oceanic heat content and the fact that we saw it maintain itself OVER CUBA with no problem....

Agree gatorcane...the gulf stream oceanic heat content is very high.

I Hope it stays away from florida because it might get really powerful.

This just might come very close to category 1 status.

[Evil Jeremy]

You know, it really does look like it is still drifting westward.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[tracyswfla]

Jeremy, I don't think so.. the 8pm advisory is about .4 N and .3 E of 5pm, if that was a center relocate, then perhaps, but if not, its the NE its expected.. now my question becomes... with the Black on IR, if it does bomb a bit to Cat1, wouldn't that make it stronger against the high?

I know I am on the West coast of Fl. but we had lots of passing downpours this evening. I am sure it's not Noel, but welcomed rain and wind.!

[MiamiensisWx]

I really do not understand the reasons as to why people have been questioning the NHC and professional meteorologists. Personally, I think they have done a fabulous job with this tropical cyclone with respect to the upper-level steering flow. The TS Warning was unneeded for SE Florida. The NNE turn is clearly materializing as the LLC moves under the convection further NE. UL flow (wind vectors) is backed WSW ahead of the s/w trough, thus supporting Noel's recurve over the Bahamas. I just want to give some major kudos to the informative professional meteorologists, amateurs, and NHC! We will see gusty winds and beach erosion, but there should be lower winds on the W semicircle. I think the Bahamas should be more concerned; UL divergence could aid Noel's exhaust system, thus supporting a possible brief run toward ~60-65 kts (~70-75 mph).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

[gatorcane]

All I have to say is BOOM!!!

[Stratosphere747]

Since when is a drop of 6mb imply that its entering a RI cycle?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 010020
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 06 20071101
235530 2831N 08643W 3759 07987 0368 -245 -478 299014 015 000 006 00
235600 2831N 08640W 3752 08000 0368 -245 -482 295015 016 000 006 00
235630 2830N 08638W 3763 07981 0368 -244 -486 302015 015 000 006 00
235700 2829N 08635W 3766 07972 0365 -240 -485 301015 016 004 006 00
235730 2828N 08633W 3766 07973 0365 -240 -484 301016 016 005 006 00
235800 2827N 08630W 3763 07976 0365 -241 -485 299016 017 007 006 00
235830 2826N 08628W 3760 07981 0365 -240 -489 293018 019 004 006 00
235900 2825N 08626W 3758 07989 0366 -240 -495 293018 018 017 005 00
235930 2824N 08623W 3762 07980 0366 -240 -498 297017 019 000 007 00
000000 2823N 08620W 3763 07979 0366 -240 -498 300018 018 000 006 00
000030 2822N 08618W 3766 07973 0366 -239 -496 298019 019 002 006 00
000100 2821N 08615W 3764 07975 0366 -240 -497 298019 020 000 007 00
000130 2820N 08613W 3760 07985 0367 -240 -502 299019 019 001 006 00
000200 2819N 08610W 3762 07980 0366 -240 -506 298020 020 001 007 00
000230 2818N 08608W 3766 07974 0366 -238 -510 298020 021 004 006 00
000300 2817N 08605W 3769 07967 0366 -235 -513 296021 021 001 006 00
000330 2816N 08603W 3767 07970 0366 -235 -515 297021 022 000 006 00
000400 2815N 08600W 3769 07967 0366 -235 -517 301020 020 001 006 00
000430 2814N 08558W 3759 07986 0367 -239 -518 302020 020 001 006 00
000500 2813N 08555W 3762 07981 0367 -237 -519 303020 020 000 006 00
$$

Plane is on route towards NOEL.

[RL3AO]

Since when is a drop of 6mb imply that its entering a RI cycle?

Because RI has gotten so overused these past few years it has lost all meaning.

[Stratosphere747]

Since when is a drop of 6mb imply that its entering a RI cycle?

Because RI has gotten so overused these past few years it has lost all meaning.

Overused is an understatement and the use of it is generally misleading....

[bocadude86]

Dont think its moving west.. just the convection expanding to the west

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 010027
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 08 20071101
001530 2753N 08503W 3760 07985 0366 -230 -540 285022 023 003 006 00
001600 2752N 08500W 3759 07986 0367 -230 -542 280022 023 003 006 00
001630 2751N 08458W 3759 07986 0367 -231 -510 276024 024 000 006 00
001700 2750N 08455W 3760 07985 0368 -231 -398 273022 023 000 007 00
001730 2749N 08453W 3776 07954 0366 -229 -248 269021 021 001 006 00
001800 2748N 08450W 3760 07983 0366 -225 -324 267023 024 004 006 00
001830 2747N 08448W 3763 07978 0367 -225 -316 265024 025 002 006 00
001900 2746N 08445W 3762 07983 0367 -225 -289 263024 025 014 006 00
001930 2745N 08443W 3763 07980 0367 -225 -294 256026 027 002 007 00
002000 2744N 08440W 3758 07991 0369 -229 -283 256027 027 005 006 00
002030 2743N 08438W 3767 07975 0369 -225 -284 255026 026 004 007 00
002100 2742N 08435W 3767 07972 0368 -225 -281 256025 025 006 007 00
002130 2741N 08433W 3763 07982 0369 -228 -280 259025 025 009 006 00
002200 2740N 08430W 3761 07984 0369 -228 -281 260027 028 009 007 00
002230 2739N 08428W 3764 07981 0370 -225 -285 259029 030 008 007 00
002300 2738N 08425W 3762 07984 0369 -228 -278 260030 031 010 007 00
002330 2737N 08423W 3763 07982 0370 -229 -278 259028 028 009 007 00
002400 2736N 08420W 3762 07984 0370 -225 -291 259029 029 006 007 00
002430 2735N 08418W 3760 07987 0369 -225 -294 259028 029 012 006 00
002500 2734N 08415W 3754 07999 0370 -227 -287 261028 029 013 006 00
$$

[MiamiensisWx]

Dont think its moving west.. just the convection expanding to the west

Bingo. Click here.

The following section is intended for others.

I really do not understand the reasons as to why people have been questioning the NHC and professional meteorologists. Personally, I think they have done a fabulous job with this tropical cyclone with respect to the upper-level steering flow. The TS Warning was unneeded for SE Florida. The NNE turn is clearly materializing as the LLC moves under the convection further NE. UL flow (wind vectors) is backed WSW ahead of the s/w trough, thus supporting Noel's recurve over the Bahamas. I just want to give some major kudos to the informative professional meteorologists, amateurs, and NHC! We will see gusty winds and beach erosion, but there should be lower winds on the W semicircle. I think the Bahamas should be more concerned; UL divergence could aid Noel's exhaust system, thus supporting a possible brief run toward ~60-65 kts (~70-75 mph).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

[cycloneye]

31/2345 UTC 23.0N 78.9W T2.5/2.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html