CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 152127
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND ASSOCIATED TUTT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...MEANWHILE ANOTHER MID
TO UPPER LOW AND SHARP ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
CONTINUED TO DIG SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WITH
TROPICAL STORM DEAN RIDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION. A WEAK PERTURBATION
IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR 59 WEST NOW APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT 21Z UTC...500 PM AST...TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DEAN IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY AS A HURRICANE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AND SQUALLS WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TO
THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING MOST OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVED WEST NORTHWEST WHILE PRODUCING
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS MOCA AND SAN
SEBASTIAN. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION IN THE PREVAILING
EASTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SLOT OF DRY
AND SUBSIDENT AIR WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW AND AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
ON FRIDAY...JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM DEAN.

ON TROPICAL STORM DEAN...THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AS IT CONTINUES
A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY AS A HURRICANE...AND ALL INTERESTS ACROSS
THE REGION SHOULD KEEP MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM. BASED ON THE LATEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST...DEAN IS TO
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES
IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FORECAST INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...STILL EXPECT THE REGION TO BE
AFFECTED BY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SQUALLY WEATHER CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID LOOK FOR RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS.


The San Juan NWS discussion about the effects of Dean in our area.

[Canelaw99]

Watched Bryan Norcross and here's a synopsis of what he said:

Basically, there are high pressure systems steering Dean & Erin right now, and in between the 2, there is the huge dip in the jet stream which is lower pressure. If Dean were a little further west of where it is now, S FL would be very concerned because that dip would pull Dean up north a bit. However, that doesn't appear to be the case, and the high pressure over Dean currently is forecast to build west as Dean moves west, effectively blocking FL from it. Of course, as Norcross said, until it is completely by us, we never say never, but he's not overly concerned at the moment, but cautions to monitor it.

This is what many of our board mets have been saying, so maybe some of them know their stuff (j/k y'all).....I just know there are others out there who like Norcross and like hearing his take on the tropics.

[canegrl04]

18z 6 HOUR - Wow Takes it to Texas/LA border area.That would affect me big time if its a cat 4 or 3.I live near Dallas.Texas is woefully unprepared for a monster cane (refer,Rita,2005)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

30 Hr Surface

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

[Canelaw99]

18z 6 HOUR - Wow Takes it to Texas/LA border area.That would affect me big time if its a cat 4 or 3.I live near Dallas

The 6 hr should be Erin, not Dean

[Sjones]

18z 6 HOUR - Wow Takes it to Texas/LA border area.That would affect me big time if its a cat 4 or 3.I live near Dallas

That's not Dean threre sweetie, that's Erin your looking at.

[Wx_Warrior]

whew

[KFDM Meteorologist]

30 Hr 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_030l.gif

[Rainband]

18z 6 HOUR - Wow Takes it to Texas/LA border area.That would affect me big time if its a cat 4 or 3.I live near Dallas

Um thats Erin

[hazmat]

What is that in the Gulf in the 30hr time frame?

[canegrl04]

18z 6 HOUR - Wow Takes it to Texas/LA border area.That would affect me big time if its a cat 4 or 3.I live near Dallas

That's not Dean threre sweetie, that's Erin your looking at.

Well,I am in the Dean topic .WTH is Erin doing here

[KFDM Meteorologist]

42 HR Surface

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[jasons2k]

I don't know if this was posted but:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
258 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

AS THIS SYSTEM (Erin) DEPARTS THE REGION...IT WILL TEAR THE HIGH ALOFT IN
TWO WITH A ONE CENTER OVER THE NEW MEXICO AND THE OTHER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LEAVES A WEAKEST ALOFT (SIMILAR TO JUNES
UPPER PATTERN)...AND THIS COULD PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHERE TS
DEAN MAKES LANDFALL LATE NEXT WEEK IF IT REMAINS ALL WEEK LONG.
RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

42 500 MB

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

[Bgator]

The 18Z is a bit faster....Thats all the difference i can see for now.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Due west is what i'm seeing from today's EURO and GFS through the Carribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

Our local Meteorologist(who's pretty good) says that right now it does appear that this storm has a higher potential to make a landfall in Mexico, due to the ridge that will be building in, but as always, keep prepared throughout the gulf just in case.

[StormWarning1]

18z 6 HOUR - Wow Takes it to Texas/LA border area.That would affect me big time if its a cat 4 or 3.I live near Dallas

That's not Dean threre sweetie, that's Erin your looking at.

Well,I am in the Dean topic .WTH is Erin doing here

GFS shows everything going on in the Atlantic basin.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

60 Hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

I really do not like the sound of that jschlitz! I know it is way too early to really worry, but if that were to play out then TX and LA would not be in a very good position next week.