INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Extremeweatherguy]

this is a shoe in to form

probably a very strong TS at the very least

you really think so? I don't hear statements like that very often from you Derek, you must really think this one has a chance. I will be watching extra closely now.

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah we all saw this coming, pretty exciting stuff, Erin is surely gonna bring some beneficial rain to Texas.

[Duddy]

this is a shoe in to form

probably a very strong TS at the very least

at LEAST?!!?


Oh man, tomorrow is going to be a busy day for me.

I'm calling in sick

[Stormcenter]

this is a shoe in to form

probably a very strong TS at the very least

at LEAST?!!?


Oh man, tomorrow is going to be a busy day for me.

I'm calling in sick

You better save that day off for possibly late next week.

[Duddy]

this is a shoe in to form

probably a very strong TS at the very least

at LEAST?!!?


Oh man, tomorrow is going to be a busy day for me.

I'm calling in sick

You better save that day off for possibly late next week.

Oh man, I hear that!

The good thing about this storm is, it will prepare people on the Texas coast for the next big one.

[miamicanes177]

The good news is that it will not have a super long time to intensify. Could be like a Katrina south florida event. Katrina would have hit florida as a major hurricane if it had another day over the waters.

[Aric Dunn]

Like i was eluding to earlier .. it appears at least plausible that it could get quite a bit stronger. as the ridge begins a couple out flow jets may set up do to the proximity to the upper lows. which if everything play out right would be a whole new ballgame. depending how fast it moves from now till landfall and how fast it can get organized now.
the faster it can establish a well defined LLC the better chance it has. to get stonger

[Duddy]

The good news is that it will not have a super long time to intensify. Could be like a Katrina south florida event. Katrina would have hit florida as a major hurricane if it had another day over the waters.

True, but that was in the Carib.

This thing is in the Gulf, remember what happened to Katrina when it entered the Gulf? Rapid Intensification.

[Steve]

I agree with your call Derek. I'm not convinced it's going to be super strong, but as noted on page (something in the single digits), I thought it had a shot at midgrade TS with an chance at intensification close to landfall depending. Claudette, though a different beast, Bret and Cindy were used as comparisons (intensification closer to landfall). I'd be surprised if 91L made it to Cat 2 though. I know the water is low-mid 80's per the earlier high-res SST chart, but I think that despite potential rapidly improving conditions, I just don't think there's enough time for this to do what it otherwise might have done.

Also as someone noted prior, props to the NAM and CMC for sniffing out the possibility last week FWIW.

Steve

[srainhoutx]

I agree with your call Derek. I'm not convinced it's going to be super strong, but as noted on page (something in the single digits), I thought it had a shot at midgrade TS with an chance at intensification close to landfall depending. Claudette, though a different beast, Bret and Cindy were used as comparisons (intensification closer to landfall). I'd be surprised if 91L made it to Cat 2 though. I know the water is low-mid 80's per the earlier high-res SST chart, but I think that despite potential rapidly improving conditions, I just don't think there's enough time for this to do what it otherwise might have done.

Also as someone noted prior, props to the NAM and CMC for sniffing out the possibility last week FWIW.

Steve

August 6th, I believe were the first "hints".

[Steve]

>>August 6th, I believe were the first "hints".

Yeah maybe so. Each one of those models has recently anticipated trouble spots in the Gulf that ended up not materializing a few days ahead. But there was some significant rainfall from each of those events. People dog on those models for tropical performance - and rightfully so. But you never know where you might turn up a clue. I'd say people will pay at least passing attention for the rest of the Gulf season any time they indicate concentrated areas of rainfall. JMO, but I'm sure going to pay at least a little attention. It can't hurt.

Steve

[miamicanes177]

This thing is in the Gulf, remember what happened to Katrina when it entered the Gulf? Rapid Intensification.

When you said rapid intensification I thought of Wilma 2005. TS to cat 5 in 1 day. Just goes to show that anything is possible, just not likely. However, it's always good to be watchful and not let one of these sneak up. God forbid we one day wakeup expecting a tropical storm and get a landfalling cat 5.

[Steve]

And oh by the way, there is beginning to be some increase in convection closer to the center.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

If it's going to feed back, it's only got a couple of opportunities to crank. This pulse is certainly one of those opportunities.

[Stormcenter]

Now where is that center again?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Extremeweatherguy]

Probably not going to find it on the visible since it is dark. However, I am willing to bet that it will either be pulled into that convection or will reform under that convection overnight. We shall see. Conditions around the system are definitely getting better though as the ULL zooms off.

[Stormcenter]

Probably not going to find it on the visible since it is dark. However, I am willing to bet that it will either be pulled into that convection or will reform under that convection overnight. We shall see. Conditions around the system are definitely getting better though as the ULL zooms off.

Actually this is not the visible loop. i still would look further to the north and east
for a "possible" new low center. Just my opinion.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Aric Dunn]

here area couple decent ship reports.. showing 25kt winds

[Sanibel]

That little cyclone-looking convection is the storm consolidating (strengthening). The center is still where Aric and wxman had it just north of Yucatan, and probably making a move now NW. The reason you see the TS-looking shape over there is because the shear from the ULL pushed it there. The good symmetry is a sign of potential.

[Extremeweatherguy]

oh yeah, you're right..that was b&w infrared, not visible. My bad.

[Stormcenter]

oh yeah, you're right..that was b&w infrared, not visible. My bad.

No problem.