Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[skysummit]

Hey, the NOGAPS carries it which is one global on board....

And, look at that SHIPS, 100 mph huh? Looks like a track towards Central America too. So much for "east coast trough" ruling the roost this season. More like "monster ridge" defines 2007 so far. We shall see, hard to think all systems will go in to Mexico this season.

I agree....going into September we should at least get some kind of troughiness to pull a system further north within the next 10 - 12 days or so.

[Zardoz]

During the day and tonight I would expect it to start getting it's act together.

Seems to be doing that now:

Floater One

GOES East

[wxman57]

Two things about this morning's model runs (BAMs). First, the track is nearly due west and is south of all model guidance from yesterday. Second, it's NOT moving at 10 kts as the 00Z models were initialized.

I don't see any evidence of an LLC on satellite, and surface obs in the area don't show anything impressive as far as low pressure or wind. I still think it's heading almost due west for the next 3-5 days and it'll enter the eastern Caribbean by around noon Friday without developing. NHC better schedule the recon on Friday for west of 58W or move it up to tomorrow, as the disturbance should be passing 55W by tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Here's a 12Z model plot I made. Except for the shallow BAM, all tracks are westward toward Nicaragua/Honduras:

[windstorm99]

Also the last QS pass at around 8:47 UTC showed a broad low pressure area centered near 10N and 39W, which well SW of the most convection with 94L.Adrian

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Recon tasking finally hit the interweb

NOUS42 KNHC 281445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 28 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-096

[...snip...]

Wow, only 12 hours late.... More NHC "communication problems"?

[dwg71]

Nothing to be concerned with until at least Sept.

[Chacor]

From the 12Z SHIPS output...

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    31    35    42    50    59    66    72    77    83    85
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    31    35    42    50    59    66    72    77    83    85
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    35    40    48    57    68    81    92   100

Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)

21% probability of rapid intensification?

[Fego]

From the 12Z SHIPS output...

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    31    35    42    50    59    66    72    77    83    85
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    31    35    42    50    59    66    72    77    83    85
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    35    40    48    57    68    81    92   100

Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)

21% probability of rapid intensification?

Hello Chacor. I wonder, that info is from Invest 94L or the Invest 95 in the Pacific?

[windstorm99]

wxman57 might the development of now 95L of the carolinas have any implications on the track for 94L?Thanks Adrian

[Fego]

Well, from 'too weak' to 1.0

29/1115 UTC 11.2N 44.8W T1.0/1.0 94L
29/0615 UTC 11.7N 42.8W TOO WEAK 94L

[wxman57]

wxman57 might the development of now 95L of the carolinas have any implications on the track for 94L?Thanks Adrian

95L is just a part of the weather pattern. Whether it develops or not won't have much of an effect on 94L 2000 miles away. The Euro sees 95L and eventually takes it out to sea as the ridge north of 94L builds west across the Bahamas over the weekend.

Though 95L may not amount to much, we need to watch that same area for development around next Tue/Wed. I see strong indications in the models for such development east of the Carolinas then.

[Chacor]

From the 12Z SHIPS output...

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    31    35    42    50    59    66    72    77    83    85
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    31    35    42    50    59    66    72    77    83    85
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    35    40    48    57    68    81    92   100

Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%)

21% probability of rapid intensification?

Hello Chacor. I wonder, that info is from Invest 94L or the Invest 95 in the Pacific?

It's for 94L. 95L has 9%.

[gatorcane]

Have you all seen what is brewing this morning ENE of 94L?

That is the one to watch in my opinion. I opened up a new thread on it:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97529

[skysummit]

Have you all seen what is brewing this morning ENE of 94L?

That is the one to watch in my opinion. I opened up a new thread on it:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97529

Yea...it caught my eye this morning on the C.A. Rainbow loop. I was afraid to mention it though

[gatorcane]

Have you all seen what is brewing this morning ENE of 94L?

That is the one to watch in my opinion. I opened up a new thread on it:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97529

Yea...it caught my eye this morning on the C.A. Rainbow loop. I was afraid to mention it though

I'm almost certain that won't be pushing into South America

[Derek Ortt]

I am seeing 94L slightly less organized this morning, just spit out a MASSIVE outflow boundary and I no longer see any signs of a surface circulation

chances of development just went down to close to nothing during the next couple of days

probably time to start focusing on the next system, as this one just blew itself up from the looks of morning visibles

[SWFLA_CANE]

Have you all seen what is brewing this morning ENE of 94L?

That is the one to watch in my opinion. I opened up a new thread on it:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97529

Yea...it caught my eye this morning on the C.A. Rainbow loop. I was afraid to mention it though

I'm almost certain that won't be pushing into South America

It is being talked about...see the thread by Hurricanemaster_PR in Talkin Tropics

[gatorcane]

I am seeing 94L slightly less organized this morning, just spit out a MASSIVE outflow boundary and I no longer see any signs of a surface circulation

chances of development just went down to close to nothing during the next couple of days

probably time to start focusing on the next system, as this one just blew itself up from the looks of morning visibles

I agree I say we look at what is ENE of 94L.....its at the perfect lattitude for development for this time of year.

[miamicanes177]

I disagree with several of the above posters writing off 94L, but I do agree with the NHC. The official forecast as stated by the NHC is for environmental conditions to become more favorable for development. I'll go with the official forecast and say 94L is not dead and has a chance for development as we near September 1st.

[skysummit]

I disagree with several of the above posters writing off 94L, but I do agree with the NHC. The official forecast as stated by the NHC is for environmental conditions to become more favorable for development. I'll go with the official forecast and say 94L is not dead and has a chance for development as we near September 1st.

Thank You. That's a big problem here. Just because convection decreases or an outflow boundary is spit out, people want to write off a system and move to the next. I just don't get it, but every day is just about the same.