Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Forget TD12, maybe they will quickly up it to Karen?

[amosmoses]

can somebody explain dvorak numbers to me...im new to this whole deal and ive been wondering about that

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 00:45 UTC

[RL3AO]

can somebody explain dvorak numbers to me...im new to this whole deal and ive been wondering about that

It is about looking at satellite images and assigning a number based on certain features (eye wall, central dense overcast, clear eye, ect.) from a scale of 1.0 to 8.0. 2.5 is a tropical storm, 4.0 is a hurricane and 7.0 is a category 5.

[fci]

can somebody explain dvorak numbers to me...im new to this whole deal and ive been wondering about that

Wikipedia has a understandable explanation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

[fci]

This monster to be has Fishy written all over it.
It will be fun to watch with some pretty cool satellite pictures etc as it takes the right turn to nowhere land.
At least that's what makes sense and what the models seem to indicate.

[amosmoses]

cool, thanks guys

[canegrl04]

This monster to be has Fishy written all over it.
It will be fun to watch with some pretty cool satellite pictures etc as it takes the right turn to nowhere land.
At least that's what makes sense and what the models seem to indicate.

Yep. But it will still be wise to wait a few more days down the road before declaring it a fish

[Cyclenall]

This monster to be has Fishy written all over it.
It will be fun to watch with some pretty cool satellite pictures etc as it takes the right turn to nowhere land.
At least that's what makes sense and what the models seem to indicate.

So Europe is nowhere land?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and/or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thrid % chance of TD12 becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100% (per NRL)
Tropical Storm: 90%
Hurricane: 84%
Category 2 Hurricane: 74%
Category 3 Hurricane: 65%
Category 4 Hurricane: Unknown
Category 5 Hurricane: Unknown

This is within it's lifetime, not within a specific time (such as 24-48 hours).

[CrazyC83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and/or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My estimated probabilities:

Tropical Depression: 100% (per NRL)
Tropical Storm: 98%
Hurricane: 85%
Category 2 Hurricane: 70%
Category 3 Hurricane: 60%
Category 4 Hurricane: 50%
Category 5 Hurricane: 30%

[RL3AO]

I'll join the party.

Tropical Depression: 100% (per NRL)
Tropical Storm: 95%
Hurricane: 75%
Category 2 Hurricane: 60%
Category 3 Hurricane: 45%
Category 4 Hurricane: 20%
Category 5 Hurricane: 10%

[CrazyC83]

T2.5 supports Tropical Storm Karen, I think we will have that at 11 pm with 35-40 knots.

[O Town]

can somebody explain dvorak numbers to me...im new to this whole deal and ive been wondering about that

Here is another great link from NOAA that is short and pretty easy to understand, also a link on there to the intensity chart.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html

[jhamps10]

T2.5 supports Tropical Storm Karen, I think we will have that at 11 pm with 35-40 knots.

more likely 11AM tomorrow before that they will upgrade it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say its a tropical storm to.

My option
Tropical depression 100%
Tropical storm 100%
Hurricane 80%
Cat2 hurricane 60%
Cat3 hurricane 35%
Cat4 hurricane 25%
Cat5 hurricane 5% maybe if it gets into the caribbean.

[CrazyC83]

I would say its a tropical storm to.

My option
Tropical depression 100%
Tropical storm 100%
Hurricane 80%
Cat2 hurricane 60%
Cat3 hurricane 35%
Cat4 hurricane 25%
Cat5 hurricane 5% maybe if it gets into the caribbean.

I don't think this needs to get into the Caribbean to be a Cat 5 (if it does, this could be catastrophic). I still think this is going fishing...

[RL3AO]

What was the last Cat 5 not in the GOM or Caribbean? Isabel?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes, it was isabel. Dog 1950 was also one. But they are very rare. In out near 40-50 west the TCHP could not support one.

[Sanibel]

Structure elongating with dry pockets.

[CrazyC83]

What was the last Cat 5 not in the GOM or Caribbean? Isabel?

Isabel was the last open Atlantic Cat 5.

Others that were Cat 5 in the open Atlantic east of 70°W:

New England 1938
Dog 1950
Easy 1951
Cleo 1958
Donna 1960
Hugo 1989

(I also think Carrie 1957 was a Cat 5 in the open Atlantic)