Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

So, we are not going to have our Christmas Noel. However, it would be funny if we get the Post Season Report on Christmas!

[WmE]

So, we are not going to have our Christmas Noel. However, it would be funny if we get the Post Season Report on Christmas!

Lol yes. Noël would be the perfect Christmas storm.

[gatorcane]

This might be a bit premature, but, I'll have mine with fries...

Indeed here we go. The pattern over the Subtropical Atlantic is very summer-like still. Where are those cold fronts to end these systems?

[gatorcane]

Luis, I agree when both Derek and Wxman are mentioning a good chance of something developing I take note.

Of further note -- both are using the words "South Florida" in their discussions.....

still early of course...but my eyebrows are raised some.

If possible Noel did take aim on Florida what time-frame are we talking? Next weekend, end of next week?

Thanks

[Vortex]

I think Wednesday night/Thursday morning

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[Frank2]

I haven't had a chance to check, but, some are mentioning a cold front that might move southeast ahead of anything that might (might) develop - does anyone have a link to a map that shows the front?

Thanks

[gatorcane]

Wed. night/ Thurs AM? Thanks....

[gatorcane]

Latest:

Our system continues to get better organized with lots of deep convection now showing up....

[cycloneye]

RL3AO,what grade you have for the 11:30 AM TWO?

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami still conservative but you would think it would need to start factoring in possible future Noel if trends continue:

But notice we are in a mid-summertime Aug-Sept regime with this type of forecast...Is it really almost November?

000
FXUS62 KMFL 271344 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
944 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

UPDATE 2...12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS 22 KNOTS AT 1K FT AND 25
KNOTS AT 2K FT, COUPLED WITH WINDS AT MIAMI BEACH GUSTING TO 31KTS
AND FOWEY ROCKS SUSTAINED ABOVE 20 KTS, SO WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY WATERS BUT EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WE DRY OUT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID AND
UPPER ATMOSPHERE DRY LAYER TRYING TO ADVANCE WESTWARD TOWARD
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR ALREADY
HERE ABOVE H8. SO, BREEZY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. WITH
INCREASING WINDS STILL COULD GET SOME FRICTION/CONVERGENCE INDUCED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ONSHORE BUT
OTHERWISE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DECREASED
TODAY.

.AVIATION...
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE 27/12Z AVIATION FORECAST THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
PREVAILING EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE
DURING PEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. 70/DD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007/

UPDATE...WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ARE ALREADY
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT FOWEY ROCKS AND MIAMI BEACH SO
WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT 8 AM AND BEEF UP
RIP CURRENT MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST
REASONABLY GOOD WEATHER DAY AT THE BEACHES ALTHOUGH WINDY AND WITH A
LOW TIDE IN THE MID AFTERNOON RIP CURRENTS WILL BE A BIG THREAT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...EASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED AND THIS IS
EVIDENT ON THE VWP AND THE SURFACE AND MARINE OBS. DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IS ALSO STARTING TO MOVE IN AND THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE GREAT
REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY ON RADAR THIS MORNING . ACCORDING TO THE
GFS40, THE PWAT`S WILL DROP TO 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA BY 18Z TODAY. BUT THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY. THE PWAT`S CLIMB
TO JUST UNDER 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AND DEEPENING
EASTERLIES. THEY CLIMB TO ABOVE 2 INCHES AFTER MIDWEEK. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THAT WILL
BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT US. THE MAIN PLAYER THIS WEEK WILL BE THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY
CAUSED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND TROUGHINESS IN THE CARIBBEAN. RIP CURRENTS AND BEACH EROSION MAY
BECOME A CONCERN THIS WEEK. SO WILL FCST 40% MAINLY DAYTIME FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN BACK TO CLIMO POPS BY SATURDAY.

AVIATION...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND APPROACHING THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH
TERMINALS KPBI...KFXE...KFLL AND KAPF EXPECTED TO HAVE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS AND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT
RAIN WILL AFFECT TERMINAL KMIA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH
VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL BY 12Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

MARINE...EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE BY TUESDAY
TO POSSIBLY SCA CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 FEET IN THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO 8 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO ONLY 6 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE OUTER GULF WATERS AND
STAY UP FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS HERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 77 85 76 / 20 20 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 86 77 / 20 20 40 30
MIAMI 88 77 87 76 / 20 20 40 30
NAPLES 89 71 87 72 / 30 10 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-AMZ650-
AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...50/RLP
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

[RL3AO]

Well, this one is not straight forward.

They say this:
"THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION."

Which implies it will probably be a depression in a few hours which would be "red".

But then they say: AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE DAY OR SO.

Which would be "yellow"

[cycloneye]

Well, this one is not straight forward.

They say this:
"THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION."

Which implies it will probably be a depression in a few hours which would be "red".

But then they say: AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE DAY OR SO.

Which would be "yellow"

That is why I asked,as there is a mix bag in the outlook.But we can agree that something is trying to form out there.

[weatherwindow]

i am trying to remember....was south florida under any type of warnings for michelle or lili?

hurricane warning-keys and ts warning-jupiter to florida city, michelle 11/4/01

[cycloneye]

There is still some shear as the center is semiexposed.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Any Aruba Radar images?

[cycloneye]

Any Aruba Radar images?

Aruba Radar

[CrazyC83]

So, we are not going to have our Christmas Noel. However, it would be funny if we get the Post Season Report on Christmas!

Impossible as the reports are not published on weekends or holidays.

[cycloneye]

[bWTNT80 EGRR 271703



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.10.2007







NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 15.4N 71.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.10.2007 15.4N 71.0W WEAK

12UTC 28.10.2007 16.0N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.10.2007 17.0N 73.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.10.2007 17.4N 77.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 30.10.2007 16.5N 78.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.10.2007 16.3N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 31.10.2007 19.1N 81.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 31.10.2007 20.0N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 01.11.2007 19.2N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 01.11.2007 19.9N 82.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.11.2007 19.2N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.11.2007 19.5N 82.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


][/b]12z UKMET

12z UKMET Loop

[punkyg]

Hi guys,
i see 90Lit is better organized then yesterday.
i have a question if this were to develop where would it go?