CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[weatherman21]

Like many others, I too have seen where the deep convection is really beginning to rotate around the center of curculation very well. Outer banding appears to be well established as well. You will notice the upper-layer trough which is present over the western Atlantic in the water vapor image below. I believe an earlier run of the WRF model transformed this feature into a cut-off upper-level low pressure which will track ahead of Tropical Storm Dean in the coming days.

GOES Infrared at 2:15Z Tonight:


GOES Water Vapor at 2:15Z:

[cheezyWXguy]

Man, if that track verifies, Yucatan is going to get slammed!!! I wouldn't even rule out a cat 5 ... How many times do we see a forecasted cat 4 end up being a 5 when all is said and done? While perfect conditions are needed to sustain a cat 5, I bet a cat 5 is possible for at least a few hours with this one....

Dean 2007 as Gilbert Jr almost as strong as Gilbert Sr 1988????

I doubt that, I know its too early but I say that it probably wont be a sub 900mb hurricane. Everyone was spoiled by 2005. After that, no one realizes how hard it is to get conditions for a storm to strengthen that much

[SouthFloridawx]

[destruction92]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081518-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I missed a few pages having some stuff to do, but the 18z GFDL was the first model that gave me any concern. I know some of the pro guys like that model. I definitely don't like any run clipping the NE coast of the Yuctan while bending a little from WNW to NW.

Steve

Don't worry just yet. We'll have better data input in the models starting tomorrow evening which will probably show some changes.

Chances are that wherever the models are pointing to 7 days out will miss completely 6 days from now.

[mf_dolphin]

Our island friends are really under the gun. I know everyone wishes them the best but let's keep this thread clean. They're going to need quick access to the latest from our ProMets so let's help by keeping non-essential posts out of this thread. Thanks for your co-operation

[wzrgirl1]

i don't want to wake up to any surprises....i remember tropical storm harvey was supposed hit tampa.....we went to sleep and woke up and were under tropical storm warnings.....anything can happen....granted that was 8 years ago and technology has changed a lot since then....but you never know

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow...with the eye starting to form, its starting to give that compact, tight circulation that Ivan began to display before it jumped to 135 mph in the evening from the 75mph that morning n the central atlantic:eek: This storm could be stronger than a cat 1 at the islands easy...id say cat2 at least at this rate

[Nimrod]

Why not a warning for Barbados

[windstorm99]

Straight through the caribbean is the likely outcome as of now.

[Javlin]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081518-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I missed a few pages having some stuff to do, but the 18z GFDL was the first model that gave me any concern. I know some of the pro guys like that model. I definitely don't like any run clipping the NE coast of the Yuctan while bending a little from WNW to NW.

Steve

Hey Steve think I finally see what you been talking about on the tele connections.The trough between the two ridges in the time frame of Sepat deal.The models are seeing the trough just not having much an impact,lets hope they are right.By the way man did Dean just blow up 2X in size in the last few frames geez.The people in the Islands need to do a lock down it looks like its going to be rough.

[wzrgirl1]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081518-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I missed a few pages having some stuff to do, but the 18z GFDL was the first model that gave me any concern. I know some of the pro guys like that model. I definitely don't like any run clipping the NE coast of the Yuctan while bending a little from WNW to NW.

Steve

Hey Steve think I finally see what you been talking about on the tele connections.The trough between the two ridges in the time frame of Sepat deal.The models are seeing the trough just not having much an impact,lets hope they are right.By the way man did Dean just blow up 2X in size in the last few frames geez.The people in the Islands need to do a lock down it looks like its going to be rough.

grabbed all that moisture that was left behind with that northward jog and boom it's massive now

[cedwards]

what wrong with Dominica? How do they not issue a hurricane watch

It is still too early. The watch just went out for the lesser Antilles, then there is another day and a half before it affects Dominica. Give them time.

[RL3AO]

what wrong with Dominica? How do they not issue a hurricane watch

It is still too early. The watch just went out for the lesser Antilles, then there is another day and a half before it affects Dominica. Give them time.

He isn't talking about the Dominican Republic.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominica

[Derek Ortt]

dominica is right between martinique and guadeloupe... its only 36 hours away

[cedwards]

Sorry. My mistake.

[Steve]

>>Hey Steve think I finally see what you been talking about on the tele connections.The trough between the two ridges in the time frame of Sepat deal.The models are seeing the trough just not having much an impact,lets hope they are right.By the way man did Dean just blow up 2X in size in the last few frames geez.The people in the Islands need to do a lock down it looks like its going to be rough.

It's a 7-10 day downstream Atlantic implication. So a ridge there now would teleconnect to ridging 7 days here. Ultimately Sepat heads NWward and then bends back WNW. It may be that Dean is faster than the 7-10 day deal or may be right at 7 days. There will be some type of ridging in the West Atlantic poking into the SEUS based on the WPAC and probably a trough north of that tilted, and lifting out (or dropping down depending on what the one that was across Japan yesterday does. But Sepat was south of much influence from that trough (haven't looked at the WPAC since early this morning except for an updated track which still bends Sepat back WNW toward the end of the run.

Those teleconnections don't seem to work as well in El Nino years as they do in La Neutral seasons, and they don't always work period. But every now and then you get a couple of weeks worth of situations that are pretty damn close.

*edit* Okay it looks like a shallow trough to Sepat's west with a concentric ULL across Japan (there was a trough there yesterday, so I'll see if I can find a good WV loop to show what happened. Here's the hi-res still:

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/cgi-bin/i ... pac_wv.jpg

Here it is:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vjava.html

Japan is being affected from the west (+/- North Carolina) a flat ridge is nosing into China and Taiwan. Not sure if the JTWC track will verify as it would seem to be hard for Sepat to hit Taiwan before it bent back to the WNW, but who knows?

Steve

[ExBailbonds]

00z gfs is started
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 00_l.shtml

[Typhoon_Willie]

Each individual island government is repsonsible for issuing warnings for their respective populations I do believe. So it is up to them to deteremine first if there is a need for a warning and then they decide when then they issue warnings.

Correct me if I am wrong but on some of the islands the order to give warnings come from the homeland. I was thinking like France would be the government to issue warnings for Guadelupe etc...

Now if I am wrong the please correct me! Thanks!

[jhamps10]

Each individual island government is repsonsible for issuing warnings for their respective populations I do believe. So it is up to them to deteremine first if there is a need for a warning and then they decide when then they issue warnings.

yep, every island except Puerto Rico i believe has it's own government issue watches/warnings. Puerto Rico has NHC issue their warnings I believe.

[Sanibel]

This looks like a trough-like feature with a north flow still ahead by Puerto Rico. Is it a trough remnant, or a degrading TUTT that won't affect Dean? (Excuse my met ignorance):

Edit: Won't link. Was WV loop of Caribbean (Thanks GHCC)


Also, the west track could be temporary in front of the next stair-step NW.