#3583 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 01, 2007 9:41 pm
000
WTNT21 KNHC 020239
TCMAT1
HURRICANE NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 76.1W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......125NE 100SE 25SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 300SE 30SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 76.1W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 76.5W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 25SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.0N 72.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 0SW 320NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 42.5N 66.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...480NE 480SE 300SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 53.0N 58.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...300NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...480NE 540SE 480SW 240NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 62.5N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 76.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT31 KNHC 020240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
...HURRICANE NOEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
285 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 760 MILES...1225 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD
THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS FORECAST
OFFICE. INTERESTS ALONG THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT
CANADA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE INCH
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...27.3 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 020240
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AND ROUND VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE
MASS WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENTERED THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL AND MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM
EARLIER FLIGHTS. WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER AND PEAKED AT 81 KNOTS...AND THE MAXIMUM MEASURED SFMR
SURFACE WINDS WERE 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE
INCREASE IN THE WINDS...AND A 0022 UTC SSM/IS PASS DEPICTED AN EYE
FEATURE. NOEL COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO BUT THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
CIRCULATION AND A COOLER OCEAN. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE
TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED
SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY OCCUR A
LITTLE BIT LATER. NEVERTHELESS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE
AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
NOEL IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG AND ACCELERATING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. FROM THIS POINT ON...THE CYCLONE CAN ONLY ACCELERATE AND
CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED
BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. DETAILS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PRIMARILY NOVA SCOTIA ARE INCLUDED IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT
CANADA.
NOTE: LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION AND WINDS ARE EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.3N 76.1W 70 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 29.5N 74.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.0N 72.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 03/1200Z 37.5N 69.5W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/0000Z 42.5N 66.5W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/0000Z 53.0N 58.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/0000Z 62.5N 50.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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