CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Sanibel]

Looks like a 'cane now. Bad mojo for the islands, and call me stubborn, but I still think there will be a North recurve of some sort as it enters the GoM, thinking TX/LA, but while I would not go so far as to put Florida in the clear, looking more and more like a NW GoM strike. My thinking is that I don't think the ridge will keep it in place long enough to keep the solid westardly track.

I agree with you and want to see what that eroding trough/ULL business ahead does to Dean - But NHC has been right up to now. I'm having trouble getting this to touch Florida after this return veer west.

[Aric Dunn]

yuo can clearly follow the center and the warm center in this loop ..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
is the 415 z image there

[weatherman0518]

Thanks for the info PoJo

[Viper54r]

If like this infrared much better

[Acral]

we are in place... we will start flying the storm in the morning.

Your data will really add some "umph" to the models and our own estimations of this system. Looking forward to it!

[Evil Jeremy]

we are in place... we will start flying the storm in the morning.

I just love that we have the actual Hurricane Hunters on our forum. WHen are you guys taking off, anyways?

[Aric Dunn]

or run this loop ... you notice the warm spot surrounded by colder cloud tops

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

[RL3AO]

we are in place... we will start flying the storm in the morning.

Thank you. Looks like a busy week coming up.

[Aric Dunn]

this buoy is getting pretty close winds are way up
.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

should pass within the CDO in the next few hours

[Normandy]

Aric you are right, I had to look at the loop three times till I noticed...

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

Youll notice the latest image shows the bands (red and orange) wrapping around a warm spot (greenish yellow). eye formation is occuring it seems.

And yes, this is a hurricane probably.

[caribepr]

Safe flight, Pojo...and thank you. We'll look forward to the information

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

..DEAN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...CONTINUING QUICKLY WESTWARD


A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 550
MILES...885 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N...51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

[Evil Jeremy]

Aric! your back!some of us have been wondering why you havnt been here for a few days!

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160543
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...CONTINUING QUICKLY WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 550
MILES...885 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...13.2 N...51.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Coredesat]

I don't see why any of the intensity forecasts is not compensating for the possibility of rapid deepening.

I don't see why any of them take possible land interaction into account. A system normally can't brush Hispaniola and intensify.

[Brent]

Hurricane at 5 while I

Of course...

[brunota2003]

we are in place... we will start flying the storm in the morning.

Hey, you guys stay safe and pass my thanks along to the crew. What you guys do means a lot to not only me, but millions of other people who live along the coasts of the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric! your back!some of us have been wondering why you havnt been here for a few days!

ive been here .. just dont normally post on systems out in the middle of no where.. but now its getting down to crunch time

[wxmann_91]

The Hurricane Hunters (NOAA & USAFR are in place... we are flying Dean starting this morning

Good luck and Godspeed.

[Aric Dunn]

I would not be surprised to see a major hurricane going over Barbados tomorrow night and threw the islands .
actually im fairly confident we will have cat 3

or greater as it reaches the carrib