CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Normandy]

Aric I can't argue with your assessment of a major impacting the Leewards.....I mean once the eye forms intensification will be easy with the upper air environment over Dean.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric I can't argue with your assessment of a major impacting the Leewards.....I mean once the eye forms intensification will be easy with the upper air environment over Dean.

yeah rapid intesification seems like a good bet .. it reminds me OF IVAN its almost identical




NOW please tell me everyone can see the eye with this NEW IMAGE AS OF 530Z







http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... v=400,pp=0

[Brent]

I would not be surprised to see a major hurricane going over Barbados tomorrow night and threw the islands .
actually im fairly confident we will have cat 3

or greater as it reaches the carrib

I defintely think a 2 for the islands, major is possible. I'm concerned. Compact size=fast development.

[Sanibel]

Ooops! 13.2N was correct. Looking like Martinique now.

Doubt anything over category 2 by islands. Still working with negative conditions.

[Normandy]

Clearly this thing has overcome any negative conditions....its forming an eye and the NHC hasn't even declared it a cane yet....that called some serious strengthening. If the conditions were so negative it wouldn't be forming an eye as we speak.

Believe me im not rooting for this thing, but gotta face reality at some point. Dean is deepening very fast right now.

[Sanibel]

Reboot worked for loops. Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

cant figure out what negative conditions everyone is mentioning.. have not see anything negative since yesterday with the easterly shear ..

so some one please inform me on what it is you think is causing such bad conditions that are not there.. ??

please humor me

[Normandy]

BTW, this if Off Topic.

Coredesat, hand me my crow anytime youd like.. Im a man of my words.

[Aric Dunn]

that buoy just updated.. pressure falling rapidly

winds very close tropical storm force well away from the center about 108 miles from the center is the buoy



5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 87.3 °F

[Sanibel]

It's more like you have to produce a major by the islands Aric.

Personally, I'm still looking for another stair-step NW. It hasn't come yet.

[brunota2003]

TS force winds are 35 knots or 40 mph...that only says 25 knots sustained, or 30 mph.

EDIT: nevermind, I read the post wrong

[Scorpion]

Bombs away folks... I wouldn't be surprised at 110 kts for the islands

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: TS force winds are 35 knots or 40 mph...that only says 25 knots sustained, or 30 mph.

i said very close read the post .. and its gusting to 33kts //

EDIT: nevermind, I read wrong

oh oopps now i missed what oyu said sorry

[Evil Jeremy]

Aric! your back!some of us have been wondering why you havnt been here for a few days!

ive been here .. just dont normally post on systems out in the middle of no where.. but now its getting down to crunch time

Sorry, i was actually confusing you with Berwick Bay. Man am i tired.

[Acral]

It remains compact, which can equate to an RI cycle, but can weaken just as fast. Granted there does not appear to be as much dry air to the north and west as previously thought, and shear is definately favorable along with good outflow, but there ARE dry air masses to contend with, and the speed of the system is on the quick side.

Were it a larger system I would discount the negatives, but in my personal opinion, this system is solid, but intensity gauges are spotty at best. Can't wait for that flight data.

Now, on pure speculation, I feel that the islands will be in for a punch. Formation and structure reminds me of Dennis. A tight, compact system at the moment, with a relatively small impact area. Should my thoughts verify, then for the most part, many of the islands will be fortunate to avoid massive hurricane conditions.

Having said that, I see nothing to impede RI and shear size of the system as it approaches the Carribean Sea.

[RL3AO]

Bombs away folks... I wouldn't be surprised at 110 kts for the islands

Neither will I.

[Sanibel]

See you and Dean in the morning. 'Night all...

[Acral]

What would be interesting is to compare the "estimated" windfield with the actually data from the flights.

Another interesting item would be to review wave activity in open water. Katrina and Ivan posted some monster "rogue" waves.

[Scorpion]

Latest sat is incredible... deep red surrounding the eye. The NHC really should put out a special bulletin.

[Aric Dunn]

you beat me too it... i was about to say if you cant see the eye now.. your blind.. j/K