Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[Chacor]

Recon is near storm centre... will be interesting to see what they find.

[tolakram]

That center looks further north than CHC estimated, or am I seeing things?

[cyclonic chronic]

thats deff. more north than forecast. any chance that it'll pass the islands to the north? crazy question i know, but...

[x-y-no]

thats deff. more north than forecast. any chance that it'll pass the islands to the north? crazy question i know, but...

That doesn't look likely, but it looks like the south end of the big island is going to get some pretty significant effects.

[Chacor]

WTPA32 PHFO 141436
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092007
500 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

..A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

..A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.1 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU.

FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLOSSIE
IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...
39 MPH AND HIGHER...BY MID-MORNING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40
TO 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS HURRICANE FLOSSIE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE DAY TODAY. ANY SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND...
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS.

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE RISING TO
20 TO 25 FT TODAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND
WILL BE 10 TO 12 FEET.

HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY PRODUCE
10 INCHES OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN KAU DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER AMOUNTS...5 TO 10 INCHES...MAY FALL ON
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...16.9 N...154.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

No longer a major hurricane.

[cyclonic chronic]

going to be an interesting, and hopefully safe, day and evening on the Big Island. and for us too! who would've thought on june 1st that we'd be looking at the radar from Hawaii for the first potential landfall?

[cyclonic chronic]

on latest AVN sat loop, it looks like the eye maybe trying to come out again??

[Chacor]

VDM is out:
URPN12 KNHC 141453
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP092007
A. 14/14:30:40Z
B. 16 deg 44 min N
153 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2884 m
D. 98 kt
E. 285 deg 7 nm
F. 041 deg 087 kt
G. 292 deg 010 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 8 C/ 3059 m
J. NA C/ 3044 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / NA nm
P. AF303 0409E FLOSSIE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 87 KT NW QUAD 14:27:40 Z

87 kt FL is 78 kt with a .9 reduction.

[cyclonic chronic]

87 kt FL is 78 kt with a .9 reduction.

what does that mean for the surface?

[Sanibel]

Big Island Radar:

Gives the illusion of a closer pass but the surface eye is still on track -


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=HWA&loop=yes

[Chacor]

87 kt FL is 78 kt with a .9 reduction.

what does that mean for the surface?

Sorry, I wasn't clear. 87 kt FL is 78 kt at the surface with a .9 reduction.

[cyclonic chronic]

so now its a cat 1? if so thats really good news

[Chacor]

so now its a cat 1? if so thats really good news

Nope, they still measured surface winds at 98 kt.

[Dick Pache]

Buoy 51004 south of the big island 18' waves
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... sght&uom=E

[Chacor]

Yeah, it was mentioned in one of the earlier advisories or discussions, or maybe it was a local statement, that 18 ft report.

Flossie rainbands just off shore now...

[jasons2k]

[HURAKAN]

Impressive!!!

[Sanibel]

Motion suggests possible stall:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=HWA&loop=yes

[yzerfan]

Is that geographically an area where they'd have mudslide concerns from excessive rain?

[marcane_1973]

Motion suggests possible stall:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=HWA&loop=yes

You can clearly see on that radar loop that the storm has indeed stalled and become stationary for the time being. Wonder if a slower movement will be worse for the big island in regards to a more North jog in time or will it be better with a bend back to the west and keeping the center further away????