BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[Derek Ortt]

probably won't do any good to prepare a rescue mission. This is probably a recovery mission

I also hope that IMD gets off their incompetent behinds and provides the real winds. ANY deviation to the west will put Calcutta in the eye

To give everyone an idea as to what one should expect... we are likely going to see Katrina type devastation in an area with about 30 times the population that Katrina impacted (and my scaling factor may be conervative)

[RL3AO]

I hope I am wrong but I will be amazed if the death toll is not six figures. We might not ever find out the true death toll.

[wlfpack81]

I wonder when the natl news media will pick up on this since this will be another tsunami type event in terms of loss of life. I fully expect over 100K dead possibly. This is not good.

[Squarethecircle]

Those who are about to do battle with their fate, we salute you. But you're all gonna die.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2007 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 17:06:30 N Lon : 89:16:23 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 898.0mb/140.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -30.2C Cloud Region Temp : -81.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[Squarethecircle]

0_o

[littlevince]

Bangladesh and eastern India on cyclone alert
Thousands of people fled their homes along Bangladesh's southern coast, as volunteers with loudspeakers went from village to village warning that a severe cyclone was approaching from the Bay of Bengal. "Where shall I go?" said a woman in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh's main sea resort, holding her child in one hand and the rope of a cattle in the other, as they came out before dark fell.
Bangladesh and eastern India went on cyclone alert on Wednesday and ships were turned back to port with the storm expected to make landfall in the next two days. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department said the cyclone with winds of around 185 km per hour was some 850 km off the coast as of 0300 GMT on Wednesday. He said the storm was expected to hit Vishakapatnam on the eastern Indian coast as well as Sittewe in Myanmar.
The British storm tracking system -- Tropical Storm Risk -- has described the storm as category 4, with windspeeds of up to 250 km per hour. It was likely to weaken to a category 3 storm by Thursday, losing some speed and ferocity, the TSR said in its latest forecast.
But meteorology officials in Bangladesh said the cyclone could still be very devastating. Nearly 10 million Bangladeshis live in vulnerable points along the coast, but there are storm shelters for only half a million people, a disaster management official said.
Storms batter the poor south Asian country every year, killing hundreds of people. A severe cyclone killed more than half a million people in 1970, while a 1991 storm killed 143,000 people and destroyed thousands of homes, mostly because of a devastating tidal surge. "This is a very serious cyclone," said B.P. Yadav, director of the India Meteorological Department, adding that he expected the storm to cross the coast of Bangladesh and the neighbouring West Bengal by Friday morning, near Sagar Island.
Operations at Bangladesh's main Chittagong port were suspended and hundreds of ships and fishing boats returned to the shore on Wednesday. "We have suspended loading and unloading of cargo on the mother vessels at the outer anchorage as the sea has turned turbulent," a port official said.
Many people living on the coastline near Chittagong have begun to vacate their homes, carrying supplies of food, drinking water and other belongings.
Bangladesh's tourists resorts, Cox's Bazar and Kuakata, wore a deserted look on Wednesday and hotels were largely empty, officials and witnesses said.
Volunteers of the Cyclone Preparedness Centre started moving through villages, alerting people on loudspeakers at all vulnerable places.
"A severe storm is coming. Please get ready to move your families to shelters or anywhere away from the shores," one volunteer told villagers at Charkashem in Patuakhali district. Indian officials said Kolkata should expect to be hit by "squally winds and heavy rainfall". The neighbouring state of Orissa would also be affected.

Source: Reuters India

[Squarethecircle]

Category four at least at landfall. At this rate, it'll peak at 140 knots next update from the JTWC, and make landfall with 125-135 knots. This is a storm that will live forever in infamy.

Edit: Shoot! Ortt already stole that quote!

[btangy]

Here's a better image of the 12Z model guidance:



(Please do not distribute outside this forum!)

[CrazyC83]

My current guess for intensity: 145 kt, 904mb pressure...

[HURAKAN]

[Derecho]

I wonder when the natl news media will pick up on this since this will be another tsunami type event in terms of loss of life. I fully expect over 100K dead possibly. This is not good.

1) There are going to be practically no westerners in the area.

2) There likely won't be any cool, clear-looking video footage of the storm.

I think you're going to see surprisingly little coverage of this relative to the Tsunami regardless of how bad it is.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder when the natl news media will pick up on this since this will be another tsunami type event in terms of loss of life. I fully expect over 100K dead possibly. This is not good.

1) There are going to be practically no westerners in the area.

2) There likely won't be any cool, clear-looking video footage of the storm.

I think you're going to see surprisingly little coverage of this relative to the Tsunami regardless of how bad it is.

All the media attention will probably come with the humanitarian effort after the storm, knowing this could be one absolutely horrific storm...

[HURAKAN]

[wxman57]

Not much time before the TS force winds reach the coast. Maybe only 8-10 hours. Little time to get away for coastal residents. And where to they go?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is catastrophic.
Bangladesh needs to give evacuation orders for the area!
That is the only way to save lives.

[CrazyC83]

The worst thing that could happen right now is an eyewall cycle. That could increase the wind field even more and create the same situation as Katrina with the enormous storm surge over a much larger area, and increase the population at risk even more.

There is still a large margin for error though - it could be anywhere from central/eastern Orissa to the India portion east of Bangladesh near the Myanmar border.

[HURAKAN]

How long will it take until CNN blames it on Global Warming?

The clock is ticking!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is there any way that the warning goes out to these people there?
Does the government warn them? What's happening- I mean
Bangladesh officials know about the vulnerability to storm
surge...Shouldn't there be evacuations????