It looks like Hawaii will be brushed by Cosme as a Tropical Storm.
TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC
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Andrew92
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Finally, the first hurricane of the year! Fortunately, Cosme will not be causing any major impacts it would appear. I give him to 80 mph before weakening.
From the discussion, only four EPAC seasons saw their first hurricane develop later than Cosme.Those four were 1968, 1987, 2003, and 2004.
-Andrew92
From the discussion, only four EPAC seasons saw their first hurricane develop later than Cosme.Those four were 1968, 1987, 2003, and 2004.
-Andrew92
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Re: Hurricane Cosme
This tropical cyclone strengthened quickly and that's something that hasn't been happening this year in the Epac. It has become the first hurricane in the Western Hemisphere and it's about time something decent happens.
Hurricane Cosme is the type of hurricane that doesn't have very deep convection but has a nice appearance. The eye is actually not very large and may be even a open-eyewall cyclone.
Hurricane Cosme is the type of hurricane that doesn't have very deep convection but has a nice appearance. The eye is actually not very large and may be even a open-eyewall cyclone.
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cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Cosme
WHXX01 KMIA 170056
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0056 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070717 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070717 0000 070717 1200 070718 0000 070718 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 132.1W 15.6N 133.9W 16.3N 136.2W 16.9N 138.7W
BAMD 14.9N 132.1W 15.6N 134.3W 16.2N 136.7W 16.7N 139.2W
BAMM 14.9N 132.1W 15.5N 134.0W 16.1N 136.3W 16.5N 138.9W
LBAR 14.9N 132.1W 15.5N 134.1W 16.2N 136.7W 16.6N 139.5W
SHIP 65KTS 64KTS 60KTS 52KTS
DSHP 65KTS 64KTS 60KTS 52KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070719 0000 070720 0000 070721 0000 070722 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 141.4W 19.1N 147.2W 19.3N 153.4W 18.9N 160.2W
BAMD 17.4N 141.8W 19.1N 146.9W 20.1N 151.5W 20.7N 156.0W
BAMM 17.2N 141.6W 18.3N 147.2W 18.9N 153.1W 18.6N 158.9W
LBAR 17.2N 142.3W 19.0N 147.7W 20.3N 153.0W 16.9N 156.6W
SHIP 47KTS 37KTS 30KTS 29KTS
DSHP 47KTS 37KTS 30KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 132.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 130.0W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 128.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 80NM
$$
NNNN
Still a hurricane!!.
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cycloneye
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Re: Hurricane Cosme
423
WTPZ41 KNHC 170230
TCDEP1
HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE EYE SEEN EARLIER
HAS DISAPPEARED...WITH COSME NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY RAGGED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. MICROWAVES IMAGES DUE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE UNDER THE CDO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH COSME
COVER A FAIRLY SMALL AREA...IT HAS A RATHER LARGE OVERALL CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE ON THE ORDER OF 400 N MI ACROSS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A LOW/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHERLY NOGPAS THAT TRACKS A WEAKENING COSME
THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY GFS AND ECMWF THAT
TRACK IT ABOUT 100-150 N MI SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 72 HR BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK IS
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. COSME WILL BE SPENDING THE NEXT 72 HR
OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...THE
STORM SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER 72 HR...THE SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING AS PER
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER... COSME COULD BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST AFTER 72 HR IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH AN AREA OF FORECAST LIGHTER SHEAR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 15.1N 132.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 134.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.9N 136.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 138.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 141.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 153.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ41 KNHC 170230
TCDEP1
HURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE EYE SEEN EARLIER
HAS DISAPPEARED...WITH COSME NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY RAGGED CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. MICROWAVES IMAGES DUE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE UNDER THE CDO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH COSME
COVER A FAIRLY SMALL AREA...IT HAS A RATHER LARGE OVERALL CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE ON THE ORDER OF 400 N MI ACROSS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A LOW/
MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME SHOULD STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHERLY NOGPAS THAT TRACKS A WEAKENING COSME
THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY GFS AND ECMWF THAT
TRACK IT ABOUT 100-150 N MI SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THE FIRST 72 HR BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER. THE NEW TRACK IS
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS MODELS.
THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. COSME WILL BE SPENDING THE NEXT 72 HR
OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...THE
STORM SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER 72 HR...THE SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING AS PER
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER... COSME COULD BE STRONGER THAN
FORECAST AFTER 72 HR IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH AN AREA OF FORECAST LIGHTER SHEAR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 15.1N 132.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 134.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.9N 136.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 138.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 141.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 153.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Hurricane Cosme
NHC wrote:IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH COSME
COVER A FAIRLY SMALL AREA...IT HAS A RATHER LARGE OVERALL CYCLONIC
ENVELOPE ON THE ORDER OF 400 N MI ACROSS.
This is intresting.
NHC wrote:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 15.1N 132.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 134.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.9N 136.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 138.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 141.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 153.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I disagree with the hurricane being 65 knots still by 12 hours.
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727
FKPZ21 KNHC 170231
TCAPZ1
HURRICANE COSME ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
0300 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070717/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: COSME
NR: 011
PSN: N1506 W13236
MOV: WNW 11KT
C: 0987HPA
MAX WIND: 065KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 170600 N1518 W13324
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 171200 N1530 W13412
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 171800 N1542 W13517
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 180000 N1554 W13624
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 060KT
NXT MSG: 20070717/0900Z
$$
It'll be hurricane-strength through 18 hours...
Not looking good for HI still...
FKPZ21 KNHC 170231
TCAPZ1
HURRICANE COSME ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
0300 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070717/0300Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: COSME
NR: 011
PSN: N1506 W13236
MOV: WNW 11KT
C: 0987HPA
MAX WIND: 065KT
FCST PSN + 06 HR: 170600 N1518 W13324
FCST MAX WIND + 06 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 171200 N1530 W13412
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 171800 N1542 W13517
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 065KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 180000 N1554 W13624
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 060KT
NXT MSG: 20070717/0900Z
$$
It'll be hurricane-strength through 18 hours...
Not looking good for HI still...
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Re: Hurricane Cosme
Cyclenall wrote:NHC wrote:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 15.1N 132.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 134.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.9N 136.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 16.3N 138.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 141.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 153.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
I disagree with the hurricane being 65 knots still by 12 hours.
I rest my case. The NRL site has it at 60 knots right now.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007
MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF COSME IS LAGGING BEHIND ITS DEEP CONVECTION...WITH AN
EVEN GREATER SEPARATION SUGGESTED BY THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT
03Z. THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT COSME HAD WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM BY 03Z...AND IT PRESUMABLY HAS WEAKENED FURTHER
SINCE THEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
IN VIEW OF THE MICROWAVE DATA...AN EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER
WAS REQUIRED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
295/8...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND PRESUMES THAT AS
COSME MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS IT WILL HAVE A MORE
DIFFICULT TIME RESPONDING TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE BASIC
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED...HOWEVER...IN CALLING FOR
COSME TO MOVE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING COSME NEAR OR OVER
THE ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.
EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE COSME TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...AND TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD SSTS ALONG THE TRACK WILL INCREASE AGAIN.
CONSEQUENTLY...IT'S AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHAT KIND OF UPPER FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT BY THEN...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR SHOWING INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD PROBABLY FINISH THE CYCLONE OFF IF IT
VERIFIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 15.1N 132.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.4N 134.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.7N 136.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 141.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 153.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 19.5N 158.5W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007
MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF COSME IS LAGGING BEHIND ITS DEEP CONVECTION...WITH AN
EVEN GREATER SEPARATION SUGGESTED BY THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT
03Z. THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT COSME HAD WEAKENED TO A
TROPICAL STORM BY 03Z...AND IT PRESUMABLY HAS WEAKENED FURTHER
SINCE THEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
IN VIEW OF THE MICROWAVE DATA...AN EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER
WAS REQUIRED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
295/8...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND PRESUMES THAT AS
COSME MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS IT WILL HAVE A MORE
DIFFICULT TIME RESPONDING TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE BASIC
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED...HOWEVER...IN CALLING FOR
COSME TO MOVE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING COSME NEAR OR OVER
THE ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.
EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE COSME TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...AND TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD SSTS ALONG THE TRACK WILL INCREASE AGAIN.
CONSEQUENTLY...IT'S AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN
STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHAT KIND OF UPPER FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT BY THEN...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR SHOWING INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD PROBABLY FINISH THE CYCLONE OFF IF IT
VERIFIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 15.1N 132.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 15.4N 134.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.7N 136.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 141.4W 35 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 153.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 19.5N 158.5W 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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HURAKAN
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- Contact:
Re:
Aquawind wrote:That was quick.. Not much left to bother the Big Island like the GFDL was showing.
Cosme is beginning to leave the 26 deg Isotherm and moving into cooler waters. The system would have to wait until passing Hawaii's Big Island to get back to favorable SSTs. By then, if there is anything left, then atmospheric conditions will dictate the fate of the storm.
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Sorry fans, down to 45 kt.
736
WHXX01 KMIA 171245
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070717 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070717 1200 070718 0000 070718 1200 070719 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 133.8W 15.7N 135.6W 16.2N 137.8W 16.9N 140.3W
BAMD 15.0N 133.8W 15.5N 136.0W 16.0N 138.4W 16.6N 140.9W
BAMM 15.0N 133.8W 15.6N 135.7W 16.2N 137.9W 16.8N 140.4W
LBAR 15.0N 133.8W 15.3N 135.7W 15.8N 138.3W 16.5N 141.1W
SHIP 45KTS 33KTS 26KTS 19KTS
DSHP 45KTS 33KTS 26KTS 19KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070719 1200 070720 1200 070721 1200 070722 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 142.9W 19.0N 148.2W 19.4N 153.6W 19.5N 159.8W
BAMD 17.3N 143.4W 19.1N 147.7W 20.5N 150.8W 21.5N 153.7W
BAMM 17.6N 142.8W 19.1N 147.8W 20.1N 152.3W 20.6N 157.1W
LBAR 17.3N 143.7W 19.3N 148.8W 20.6N 153.2W 19.4N 159.6W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 16KTS 19KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 133.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 131.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 130.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 50NM
$$
NNNN
736
WHXX01 KMIA 171245
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070717 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070717 1200 070718 0000 070718 1200 070719 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 133.8W 15.7N 135.6W 16.2N 137.8W 16.9N 140.3W
BAMD 15.0N 133.8W 15.5N 136.0W 16.0N 138.4W 16.6N 140.9W
BAMM 15.0N 133.8W 15.6N 135.7W 16.2N 137.9W 16.8N 140.4W
LBAR 15.0N 133.8W 15.3N 135.7W 15.8N 138.3W 16.5N 141.1W
SHIP 45KTS 33KTS 26KTS 19KTS
DSHP 45KTS 33KTS 26KTS 19KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070719 1200 070720 1200 070721 1200 070722 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 142.9W 19.0N 148.2W 19.4N 153.6W 19.5N 159.8W
BAMD 17.3N 143.4W 19.1N 147.7W 20.5N 150.8W 21.5N 153.7W
BAMM 17.6N 142.8W 19.1N 147.8W 20.1N 152.3W 20.6N 157.1W
LBAR 17.3N 143.7W 19.3N 148.8W 20.6N 153.2W 19.4N 159.6W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 16KTS 19KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 133.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 131.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 130.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 50NM
$$
NNNN
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