Extratropical Storm Chantal: last CHC advisory issued

[HurricaneRobert]

I think it's going to be another waste of a name.

BTW, is that blob moving off the coast of South Carolina going to do something? I think I saw it in one of the models a few days ago developing.

[hurricanefloyd5]

i dont like it will be a waste

[HarlequinBoy]

Well if it reaches the criteria it is their obligation to name it, regardless of whether it will be a "waste" and whatnot. They can't be selective like that, fortunately.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Well if it reaches the criteria it is their obligation to name it, regardless of whether it will be a "waste" and whatnot. They can't be selective like that, fortunately.

thats right it's not a waste and good point!!!!!!!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This thing looks so much better then barry ever did. WOW, looks like Aliberto at its peak. 03L is likely 40-45 knots right now. Very nice kind of slightly sheared system,. More classic then the normal sheared system but displaced slightly,.

[crazycajuncane]

As long as it doesn't become a cane before 11:59P.M. No hurricanes for July 2007!!!

Extratropical... see ya later Chantal! Next!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is NO depression. Quickscat shows on the eastern quad 45-50 knot winds. With this huge area of convection. It doe's not suprize me in the leasted.

[Coredesat]

Models:

170
WHXX01 KWBC 310712
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0712 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032007) 20070731 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 0600 070731 1800 070801 0600 070801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 36.9N 65.6W 38.9N 64.8W 40.5N 62.9W 41.6N 60.8W
BAMD 36.9N 65.6W 39.6N 63.6W 42.3N 59.8W 45.1N 53.3W
BAMM 36.9N 65.6W 39.2N 64.1W 41.4N 61.2W 43.4N 56.8W
LBAR 36.9N 65.6W 39.5N 63.3W 42.3N 60.1W 45.7N 54.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 40KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 0600 070803 0600 070804 0600 070805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 42.3N 58.5W 41.6N 54.6W 41.2N 54.6W 41.6N 52.5W
BAMD 48.2N 43.7W 55.3N 19.1W 60.5N 4.0E 62.0N 15.1E
BAMM 45.3N 50.7W 50.4N 32.4W 57.5N 15.2W 63.8N 7.7W
LBAR 49.6N 45.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 61KTS 50KTS 27KTS
DSHP 52KTS 60KTS 49KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 36.9N LONCUR = 65.6W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 34.3N LONM12 = 67.2W DIRM12 = 18DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 31.7N LONM24 = 68.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

It should be noted that the intensification SHIPS is calling for is more than likely after 03L becomes extratropical.

[Coredesat]

This is NO depression. Quickscat shows on the eastern quad 45-50 knot winds. With this huge area of convection. It doe's not suprize me in the leasted.

There are no 45-50 kt winds on QuikSCAT:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 7_03as.png
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 7_03ds.png

All those black barbs are rain contamination; 45-50 kt barbs would be dark purple. The strongest barbs that can be directly associated with 03L are 30-35 kt barbs. Also, the center has become exposed again if you check the latest satellite loop.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is partly exposed not fully. Also data from 3-4 ships have just poped up for the southern part of the system. With 30 knots winds outside of the convection. It is easly to see that under the convection there could be 35-40 knot winds.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also even with the rain contamination, I would say 35 knots over that area is very possible.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

wow...td3....atlantic season is heating up...
and headed to iceland too

[Thunder44]

Dvorak is really out of wack:

31/0545 UTC 36.5N 65.7W OVERLAND 03L

[Thunder44]

This is NO depression. Quickscat shows on the eastern quad 45-50 knot winds. With this huge area of convection. It doe's not suprize me in the leasted.

There are no 45-50 kt winds on QuikSCAT:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 7_03as.png
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 7_03ds.png

All those black barbs are rain contamination; 45-50 kt barbs would be dark purple. The strongest barbs that can be directly associated with 03L are 30-35 kt barbs. Also, the center has become exposed again if you check the latest satellite loop.

That QS pass is from last night and it's difficult to really locate a center using infrared imagery.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest cimss puts the center right at the edge of the convection. So its only very partly exposed. This system kills Barry and maybe as good as Andrea.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

78-80 degree eddie it is moving into.

[Thunder44]

Still a TD:

0900 UTC Tue Jul 31 2007

tropical depression center located near 37.8n 64.9w at 31/0900z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or 25 degrees at 18 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
12 ft seas.. 0ne 75se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 37.8n 64.9w at 31/0900z
at 31/0600z center was located near 36.9n 65.6w

forecast valid 31/1800z 40.4n 62.5w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt...100ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 01/0600z 44.5n 57.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...100ne 200se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 01/1800z 49.2n 47.6w...extratropical
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 240se 100sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 02/0600z 55.0n 37.0w...extratropical
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 240se 100sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 03/0600z 59.0n 28.5w...extratropical
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 0ne 50se 25sw 0nw.
34 kt... 0ne 240se 120sw 0nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 04/0600z 61.0n 21.0w...extratropical
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.

Outlook valid 05/0600z 63.0n 13.5w...extratropical
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 37.8n 64.9w

next advisory at 31/1500z

$$
forecaster Mainelli

[Thunder44]

...Tropical Depression Three moving faster toward the north-
northeast...

at 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 37.8 north...longitude 64.9 west or about 380
miles...610 km...north of Bermuda and about 380 miles...615 km...
southeast of Chatham Massachusetts.

The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph. A
turn to the northeast with a continued increase in forward speed is
expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm today before
becoming extratropical late tonight or early Wednesday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Repeating the 500 am EDT position...37.8 N...64.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Mainelli

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres 30 knot winds outside the convection. So it will likely be post season.

[Thunder44]

Theres 30 knot winds outside the convection. So it will likely be post season.

It's still forecast to become a TS later today.