Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

Best I can find is an illusion-like turning in the same spot as earlier around 23n-86w. Pretty small and in a hostile environment.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know faster disaster... it will have to be watched as i said in a previous post i think texas or lousiana in that order could be affected by this system if it develops... it does seem to have some cyclonic turning tonight at least in the mid levels.


Hector

Well I guess stranger things have happened, but the conditions are extremely hostile. And also lol I kind of this doesn't become a wimpy displaced pathetic TS which is all it has time for even if it does develop just because it would be a waste of a name and would soil the already feeble TS:Hurricane ratio of this season.

Though chances are it would only become a "wimpy" TS if it formed, that is certainly not set in stone. The SHIPS model, for instance, brings this up to 61 knots before landfall and as we have seen many times in the past, storms can ramp up pretty quickly (a.k.a. Katrina). IMO, It is definitely a bit premature to start guessing the final strength of a system that hasn't even formed yet. Let's see what the next 24-48 hours bring first.

[ROCK]

Best I can find is an illusion-like turning in the same spot as earlier around 23n-86w. Pretty small and in a hostile environment.

I was about to post that..... your right looks to be in the mid-levels..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Best I can find is an illusion-like turning in the same spot as earlier around 23n-86w. Pretty small and in a hostile environment.

wind shear in the southeast Gulf is below 20 knots right now. That is really not all that hostile...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Also, the shear is actually decreasing from where it was earlier. Take a look at the difference over the last 12 hours...

12 hours ago: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-4.html

Now: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[srainhoutx]

Best I can find is an illusion-like turning in the same spot as earlier around 23n-86w. Pretty small and in a hostile environment.

I was about to post that..... your right looks to be in the mid-levels..

Persistence is the key as witnessed with Gabrielle, Erin...

[Ptarmigan]

Persistence is the key as witnessed with Gabrielle, Erin...

Indeed. Persistence is always the key to tropical development.

[hriverajr]

Of course we seem to be in the time of no sat pics for awhile. Tommorow will tell the tale.. yes it could turn into a wimpy tropical storm, but if it gets to that point and heads into texas with a cold front coming down, could be a heck of alot of rain for someone. And their are still questions as to how strong the trough and associated cold front will be.

[Ptarmigan]

Of course we seem to be in the time of no sat pics for awhile. Tommorow will tell the tale.. yes it could turn into a wimpy tropical storm, but if it gets to that point and heads into texas with a cold front coming down, could be a heck of alot of rain for someone. And their are still questions as to how strong the trough and associated cold front will be.

Some big flood events in Texas happened because of it. TS Amelia in 1978 made landfall and interacted with a cool front dumping 52 inches of rain in 48 hours around Pine Bluff, TX. Also, the remnant of Hurricane Camille dumped heavy rain on western Virginia because it interacted with a cool front. Both were also core rain events.

[fasterdisaster]

Was TS Allison interacting with a cold front or just victim to weak steering currents? Sorry it might be a dumb question.

[srainhoutx]

Of course we seem to be in the time of no sat pics for awhile. Tommorow will tell the tale.. yes it could turn into a wimpy tropical storm, but if it gets to that point and heads into texas with a cold front coming down, could be a heck of alot of rain for someone. And their are still questions as to how strong the trough and associated cold front will be.

Thanks Hector. Looking at last images from NEPAC WV sure has my attention to just how strong a trough and how far S it digs. Still think it is a bit early for a Gulf Coast norther type system the models have been "hinting" the past several days.

[Ptarmigan]

Was TS Allison interacting with a cold front or just victim to weak steering currents? Sorry it might be a dumb question.

No. There was no cold front when TS Allsion was around. It was due to weak steering current.

[Stormcenter]

There is definitely a spin down there. Now the question is at what level it is at?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Epsilon_Fan]

seems like some convection is firing up. Just its location alone makes it an attention grabber for the Gulf Coast!

[Ed Mahmoud]

HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion, just the relevant parts...


POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE STRONGER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BARELY APPEARS IN THE PRESSURE
PATTERN IN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR
DETRIMENTAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DOES APPEAR TO EXIST WEST OF KEY WEST. ANY FUTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW. THE LAST TIME THE MODELS CALLED
FOR GENESIS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO /WHAT BECAME TROPICAL STORM
ERIN/...THE NAM HELD THE SYSTEM FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME AND
TURNED OUT TO BE THE MORE CORRECT SOLUTION UNTIL LANDFALL. WITH
THIS IN MIND...WILL FAVOR A SOLUTION TOWARDS THE NAM/CANADIAN
HERE.

ROTH

[HURAKAN]

twd 205:

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN AREA OF WEATHER TONIGHT IS IN THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LOW. DISORGANIZED
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE GENERALLY OVER THE S/SE
GULF S OF 28N E OF 89W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS JUST OFFSHORE SW FLORIDA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED AREA
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
NEAR 23N87W. AS OF 09/0300 UTC THE SFC TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED
ALONG 23N89W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO JUST OFFSHORE CAPE CANAVERAL IN THE
ATLC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.

[Zardoz]

Best I can find is an illusion-like turning in the same spot as earlier around 23n-86w.

Looks pretty real to me:

GOM Rainbow

[KWT]

Its convection looks very unorganised to me right now, ther eis more of it then a few hours ago but its not exactly looking organised to me, tohugh there are certainly hints of some sort of rotation.

[Brent]

What I see is a big disorganized unimpressive mess. There is certainly nothing developing imminently down there, but I will be keeping a very close eye on it due to it's location and the fact that the water is very warm(even though the UL winds are currently unfavorable).

I was quite surprised they made this an invest before some other areas however(notably the African wave).

[srainhoutx]

What I see is a big disorganized unimpressive mess. There is certainly nothing developing imminently down there, but I will be keeping a very close eye on it due to it's location and the fact that the water is very warm(even though the UL winds are currently unfavorable).

I was quite surprised they made this an invest before some other areas however(notably the African wave).

Taken from Pg 67 for 99L dicussion. There are some big leases in the GOM that "may" be affected by 90L.
wxman57 wrote:
I don't know much about AccuWeather's clients or what they're expecting, but I do know what many industries that hire private meteorologists need in the way of weather information. Let's take the offshore drilling industry, for example. These are the most sensitive operations. I've sat down with engineers prior to the sail out of some VERY BIG deepwater production platform (by very big I mean multi-billion dollar operations) and they've told me that they need a quantitative assessment of the potential hurricane risk out to 10 days. They can't afford to depart port, make the slow 3-4 day journey out to mooring site then take 5-7 days to set at least 4 mooring lines if there is any significant risk of a hurricane impact. Such a strike could cause the loss of the platform and have the potential for damaging other nearby platforms and underwater pipelines.
Because of this, private meteorological firms are being asked for forecasts far and above anything that the NHC is prepared to issue (or needs to, given their main concern of public safety). How would you feel about issuing a 7-day track forecast on a tropical wave, predicting when and where it will develop and how large and strong it could become then communicating to a client the earliest time that a specific location could receive TS or hurricane force winds and the probability of receiving those winds? That's hard enough to do with a named storm, try it with a tropical wave. Like AccuWeather (I assume), we had the need to communicate the potential hurricane risk to our clients on the east coast because they pay us specifically to know of any potential risk out to 7 days and beyond. The difference here is that we only communicate the info to certain key people in each company. The forecasts aren't put out to the general public. Were the screen grabs from AccuWeather's public site or the paid site?

So the above reasons are why I'll sometimes say it isn't too early to make a forecast on a particular disturbance. That's what private meteorological companies have to do - make long-range forecasts when nothing is certain. We don't have the luxury of only discussing potential development over the next 36-48 hours. But we know that it is just as important to communicate to our clients when the risk is diminishing (as it has since late yesterday) so that our clients can "stand-down". I heard JB say today that he's sticking to his guns no matter what I guess only AccuWeather (or their clients) can determine if such a stance is in the clients' best interest. I like Joe, but he does tend to be a bit stubborn.


Thanks for this detailed response wxman57. I think that many do not understand the nature of your job as private PRO MET. I have a couple of friends like you that put their neck on the line frequently this time of year.

The "potential" threat to the GOM has wide ranging impacts. The better prepared we are, the smoother the transition on the leases will be in my humble opinion. The GOM cannot afford any surprises for reasons stated above by wxman57. Life and property must come first.

[Cryomaniac]

The following post is the opinion of Cryomaniac and as such is not backed by any information, either meterological, economic or otherwise.

The very fact that there is an Invest in the GOM will raise oil prices monday.

I personally don't think this will develop. Not enough time, too much shear, etc.