Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[Vortex]

weatherunderground has kts next to intensity...based on the run and the info provided should be MPH...74kts which is 85mph

[canegrl04]

WHXX01 KWBC 100110
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0110 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070910 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070910 0000 070910 1200 070911 0000 070911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 36.5W 10.3N 38.1W 10.6N 39.6W 10.7N 40.7W
BAMD 10.0N 36.5W 10.5N 38.6W 10.8N 40.6W 10.9N 42.5W
BAMM 10.0N 36.5W 10.4N 38.2W 10.7N 39.9W 10.9N 41.5W
LBAR 10.0N 36.5W 10.6N 39.2W 11.4N 42.1W 11.8N 45.1W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070912 0000 070913 0000 070914 0000 070915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 41.5W 12.3N 43.1W 14.2N 44.9W 16.7N 47.6W
BAMD 11.1N 44.2W 11.5N 47.3W 12.0N 49.8W 12.5N 52.0W
BAMM 11.2N 42.7W 11.9N 44.8W 12.8N 46.3W 13.6N 48.0W
LBAR 12.3N 47.8W 12.7N 53.0W 12.9N 56.8W 11.5N 59.5W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 71KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 71KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 36.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 34.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

LBAR is the only model trending south.The others seem to want to take it into EAST Carribean

[cycloneye]

66 hours

Lets see what GFS has for 91L.It has passed 40w.

[cycloneye]

78 hours

[cycloneye]

90 hours

What? The low is stationary for 36 hours? Folks this run is not good.

[cycloneye]

102 hours

I give up on GFS. Look what it does now after being stationary for 36 hours.Goes northward?

[Fego]

Cycloneye, when you open the page. it shows this "coarse
medium
fine
4-panel charts
[an error occurred while processing this directive] "

Kudos...

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, when you open the page. it shows this "coarse
medium
fine
4-panel charts
[an error occurred while processing this directive] "

Kudos...

You mean the NCEP page? It works fine for me.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

[cycloneye]

The 500 chart shows the ridge in control.A big trough is inside the U.S...This at 132 hours.

[cycloneye]

500 in 150 hours.The ridge is not very strong at 150 hours,surely not like when Dean and Felix tracked westward.

[Fego]

Cycloneye, when you open the page. it shows this "coarse
medium
fine
4-panel charts
[an error occurred while processing this directive] "

Kudos...

You mean the NCEP page? It works fine for me.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml

I refreshed and it's ok.. may be they fixed it ... Do you think this run is incorrect?

[HURAKAN]

329
WHXX01 KWBC 100615
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070910 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070910 0600 070910 1800 070911 0600 070911 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 37.7W 10.5N 39.6W 10.7N 41.2W 10.7N 42.6W
BAMD 10.1N 37.7W 10.4N 40.2W 10.4N 42.7W 10.2N 45.2W
BAMM 10.1N 37.7W 10.4N 39.9W 10.3N 42.0W 10.3N 43.9W
LBAR 10.1N 37.7W 10.5N 40.2W 11.1N 42.9W 11.6N 45.6W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070912 0600 070913 0600 070914 0600 070915 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 43.7W 11.6N 45.7W 12.5N 46.4W 13.6N 47.4W
BAMD 9.9N 47.6W 9.6N 52.3W 9.9N 56.3W 11.0N 59.6W
BAMM 10.1N 45.7W 10.3N 49.1W 10.6N 51.6W 10.6N 53.9W
LBAR 12.0N 48.2W 12.4N 53.1W 13.2N 56.4W 14.9N 58.9W
SHIP 47KTS 59KTS 66KTS 71KTS
DSHP 47KTS 59KTS 66KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.1N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 35.2W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 32.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

281
WHXX04 KWBC 100522
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.4 36.0 280./13.0
6 10.3 37.2 268./12.6
12 10.3 37.4 266./ 1.6
18 10.7 38.4 291./10.2
24 10.9 38.9 296./ 5.2
30 10.8 39.1 252./ 2.5
36 11.0 39.8 283./ 6.6
42 11.3 40.5 296./ 7.7
48 11.8 40.9 319./ 6.2
54 12.7 41.2 337./ 9.6
60 13.2 42.3 298./11.3
66 13.8 42.9 314./ 8.1
72 14.6 43.4 323./ 9.4
78 15.3 44.2 317./10.3
84 16.2 44.6 331./ 9.6
90 17.4 45.2 332./13.1
96 18.0 45.9 312./ 9.4
102 18.7 46.7 312./10.2
108 19.4 47.5 311./10.4
114 20.0 48.5 300./10.6
120 20.4 49.2 300./ 8.2
126 20.9 50.1 302./ 9.8

GFDL says fish!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfdl has done badly on Felix and Gabby to tag two. I don't think this system will slow down in hold at 45 or so west for the next 36-48 hours like the gfs is trying to do. It has done 10+ degrees in the last 24 or so hours.

Also I feel that what ever weakness caused by the trough. Will be not as strong as shown by the gfs/Gfdl. I also think this system will be near or over 50 by the time it crosses 15 north if it does at all even before it makes it into the caribbean. I can't believe the gfs any more.

[KWT]

The GFS doesn't really lift the system as much as its previous runs and its still reducing the strength of the upper weakness as are the other models. Still I think the system will probably lift for a breif time. The system will probably slow down a touch in about 24hrs but your right Matt, not as much as the GFs/GFDL thinks.

I'll be very surprised if 91L carries on and heads NW after 60hrs as the weakness should both fill and pass by, indeed it'll probably pick up a 280 degree type motion and will probably pass very close to the leeward islands.

[cycloneye]

101120
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.7 38.5 275./12.0
6 10.3 38.5 192./ 4.0
12 10.5 38.7 329./ 2.3
18 10.9 39.7 294./10.8
24 11.0 40.0 284./ 3.6
30 11.3 40.4 304./ 4.8
36 11.6 41.2 294./ 7.7
42 11.6 42.0 267./ 8.7
48 12.1 42.3 335./ 5.5
54 12.6 43.1 305./ 9.6
60 13.2 43.8 309./ 9.0
66 13.6 44.8 293./11.1
72 13.9 45.3 295./ 5.1
78 14.6 46.0 314./10.1
84 15.3 46.6 320./ 8.8
90 15.8 47.5 302./10.6
96 16.2 48.3 296./ 8.7
102 16.8 49.1 305./ 9.1
108 17.3 50.1 298./11.0
114 17.8 51.2 295./11.1
120 18.4 52.4 296./13.3
126 19.1 53.9 296./15.4

6z GFDL.Still fishing.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL must have had crack for breakfast

this is not going to slow down to 2KT

[cycloneye]

HWRF Animation

It has almost a cat 3.

[windstorm99]

Were are you guys seeing fish here...The GFDL has it moving WNW then a bend back to the west it seems.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 101300
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1300 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070910 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070910 1200 070911 0000 070911 1200 070912 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 39.0W 10.1N 41.0W 10.1N 42.8W 10.0N 44.3W
BAMD 9.7N 39.0W 10.1N 41.4W 10.2N 43.9W 10.1N 46.3W
BAMM 9.7N 39.0W 10.1N 41.1W 10.2N 43.1W 10.2N 45.0W
LBAR 9.7N 39.0W 10.2N 41.6W 10.7N 44.4W 11.3N 47.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070912 1200 070913 1200 070914 1200 070915 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 45.6W 10.9N 48.0W 11.2N 49.4W 11.4N 50.5W
BAMD 9.8N 48.8W 9.7N 53.6W 10.3N 57.8W 11.4N 61.3W
BAMM 10.2N 46.9W 10.6N 50.3W 10.9N 53.3W 11.0N 56.3W
LBAR 11.5N 50.0W 12.3N 55.0W 13.8N 58.5W 15.7N 61.0W
SHIP 44KTS 55KTS 66KTS 73KTS
DSHP 44KTS 55KTS 66KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 39.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 34.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




The shallow BAMS take it towards the Lesser Antilles,while the globals track NE of the Leewards.Right now is moving 270 westward at 12kts.