Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[Brent]

I think this one will be a U.S. threat... looks like our luck is about to run out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

SHIPS makes this a Strong Category 1 Hurricane:
80 knots about 90 mph.
The synoptics with a building ridge favor
a track towards Southeast Florida.

[HollynLA]

Of all 3 invests, this one does give the biggest threat to the US mainland assuming that 90L isn't going to do much. It is looking more impressive as the day goes on and I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a depression by 11am tomorrow.

I would be shocked if this was a depression at 11am tomorrow. Systems just don't develop that fast.

They can and do.

[Sanibel]

Have to credit Vortex. I didn't think this would form but it obviously is.

You have to compute 91L forming behind it and Gabrielle possibly pulling it up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Of all 3 invests, this one does give the biggest threat to the US mainland assuming that 90L isn't going to do much. It is looking more impressive as the day goes on and I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a depression by 11am tomorrow.

I would be shocked if this was a depression at 11am tomorrow. Systems just don't develop that fast.

They can and do.

This could rapidly intensify. It has great organization and is
moving over warm waters. At least a depression by tomorrow,
a strong tropical storm by tuesday, and a hurricane by thursday,
at the very least- that is based on SHIPS for the hurricane.

[gatorcane]

Here we go South Florida.....

could our luck have run out?

[fci]

FCI, frank2 --

looks like we have a little something to worry about.....

Definitely something to watch now that the Gator game is over for this week.

Seriously, it's in that area that always makes me pay close attention.

Doesn't look too organized yet and wxman is saying it is far from development so for now, we watch and see what happens.

How strong the ridge is will obviously dictate if it will keep from fishing.
Judging on how it has been so far the turn away is not currently likely but who knows in a few days.

[Cookiely]

For days it was just a tiny dot of convection and I followed it across and just knew that at some point it was going to form because it was so persistent.

[gatorcane]

Yeah I'll be watching it closely FCI........

what a surprise for some if this makes it to South Florida. I get the sense that many were thinking we may get off the hook this year...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

As you can see, a round ball of very intense convection has exploded
near the center. I see very little to stop rapid intensification
of this system.

[Sanibel]

Need a Floater on this NOW! I think I see inflowing spin in the SW quadrant.

[gatorcane]

Need a Floater on this NOW! I think I see inflowing spin in the SW quadrant.

Wow how much this reminds me of the Jeanne, Frances setup of 2004.....

note the wave behind it may follow in this ones tracks...

I do see some inflow now in the SW quadrant...

[Brent]

I keep thinking of Jeanne when I think about this...

and where did this come from?

[gatorcane]

Derek Ortt, Hyperstorm, Wxman, x-y-no

What do you all think?

I'm looking at the large scale synoptics and this thing to me really is entering the perfect environment for development and the mid-level steering looks like there is a clear path to the Bahamas and possibly Florida after that...any troughs expected to come off the CONUS...

Also the waters it is entering have been completely untapped so far and the water in the Bahamas is EXTREMELY warm...

winds over south florida have steadily been picking up from the ESE and we are in a deep easterly regime. Looks very tropical outside....

We need a trough on this one...

[KWT]

Yep gatorcane, I said that in the other thread, where 92L goes I believe 91L may be very similar, tohugh other weaknesses in the subtropical ridge may cause some differences.

This one needs very close watching though, it does look like it has a reasoable chanc eof developing and the heat content only increases as it gets further west. This one will probably be future TD8 IMO...

[Sanibel]

This is definitely in cyclogenesis. Bells should be going off and there isn't even a Floater over it!

[Sanibel]

[canegrl04]

Here we go South Florida.....

could our luck have run out?

South Florida 'canes can easily become major.I hope this is not one

[destruction92]

92L already appears to be tugged northward...is there a trough above it right now? I keep seeing an arc of weak convection (resembling a trough or something) across the central and western Atlantic from the Canadian maritimes down to Bermuda and back towards the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

[jaxfladude]

Now that is a invest!!!