Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[micktooth]

72 hrs: Mouth of the Mississippi
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[cycloneye]

18z GFS 200mb at 72 hours

Light shear in most of GOM.

[jhamps10]

60:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_060s.gif

66:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_066s.gif

72:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_072s.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

models are going to flip flop until this actually develops.

[Ivanhater]

Stall over loop current

[jhamps10]

Stall over loop current

if it is, it's on the far northern edge at 72, but close enough to get me concerned that's for sure.

[Stratosphere747]

If I understood AFM correctly yesterday evening, this feature over near California may be quite important to the future path of this system.

72hrs

[BigA]

54, and now it's moving it more west, if not a bit wsw:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_054s.gif

As for a more westward/wsw motion...

GOOOOOOD:Less chance of a hit on central gulf coast

BAAAAAAAD: More time to intensify over warm water in which shear is falling.

[rockyman]

turning NW toward central LA coast thru 84 hours

[jhamps10]

78:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_078s.gif

84:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_084s.gif

90:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_090s.gif

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090s.gif

Shear increases in Southern GOM but still is light in Northern GOM.

[Extremeweatherguy]

here is a comparison to the 12z...

18z at 84 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

12z at 90 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

This run is definitely more westward. Looks like it will probably be a TX/LA border hit on the 18z.

[jhamps10]

96:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_096s.gif

102:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_102s.gif

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102s.gif

Shear goes up a little in northern gulf.

[jhamps10]

here is a comparison to the 12z...

18z at 84 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

12z at 90 hrs - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

This run is definitely more westward. Looks like it will probably be a TX/LA border hit on the 18z.

ding,ding,ding..... correct EWG. although looks a bit east of the border, but close anyway.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

TX/LA border landfall (very Rita-esque).

[jhamps10]

108:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_108s.gif

114, landfall at the border of TX/LA
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_114s.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

If this is the scenario, then the only thing that could help would be shear.

[Stratosphere747]

GFS will probably continue to flip-flop.

Keep looking out to California on the future runs...

[gboudx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_114l.gif

TX/LA border landfall (very Rita-esque).

And then it moves up to the DFW area. Interesting, but I ain't buying it yet.