Tropical Depression LORENZO: Global & hurricane Models

[cycloneye]

Gone from NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[vaffie]

The Houston NWS Office's Summary of the latest model tracks of 94L.

STRONG
SOUTHERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDING ABUNDANT SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN
GULF BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR BRO COMES
NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN
GULF SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. EVENTUALLY THE RIDGE
OVER MEXICO DOES BUILD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THIS COULD BE OUR
SAVING GRACE. GFS BRINGS A CIRCULATION NW TO AROUND 250 MILES
EAST OF BROWNSVILLE STALLS IT ON WEDNESDAY THEN DRIFTS IT SW
THROUGH SATURDAY AND STILL HAS IT OVER THE EXTREME SW
GULF...WHEREAS THE NAM TAKES IT OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY
WEST STALLS IT OVER THE SW GULF AND THEN LOOPS IT WITH IT STILL
OUT OVER THE GULF AT 84HRS- THURSDAY AFTERNOON GETTING STRONGER.
THE ECMWF KEEPS IT IN THE SW GULF TO EXTREME SW GULF AS THE NAM
BUT KEEPS IT DRIFTING WEST NOT THE LOOP-DE-LOOP OF THE NAM THOUGH
BUT DOES GET IT INLAND IN THE EXTREME SW GULF BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO
TO SUM UP THE SCENARIO...SLOW DEVELOPMENT BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THE TRACK AND DURATION OF ITS TIME OVER THE GULF.

[Nimbus]

So many of the models do see the energy near the Yucatan developing and persisting till the shear lets up. With a loop de loop scenario thrown in we can say with some certainty that anywhere from Mexico to Key west could be in the cone.

[sphelps8681]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
48 hr Surface forecast from NHC

[vaffie]

Many of the models--before they stopped running--had it in the Bay of Campeche in 5 days still. 97L may be entering the Gulf in 6 days from now. Things might get interesting.

[HouTXmetro]

will they start running new models?

[vaffie]

will they start running new models?

Most assuredly.

[Portastorm]

The slow and erratic motion mentioned by NHC in its discussion as well as what the globals suggest is what JB would refer to as "wailing and gnashing of teeth for forecasters."

Complicated situation for the pros.

[cycloneye]

Expect models runs shortly as NRL has tagged back 94L.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[cycloneye]

KWBC 241516
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1516 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20070924 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 1200 070925 0000 070925 1200 070926 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 92.2W 22.7N 93.7W 23.0N 95.2W 23.2N 96.5W
BAMD 22.2N 92.2W 22.8N 93.3W 22.9N 94.1W 22.7N 94.9W
BAMM 22.2N 92.2W 22.6N 93.5W 22.6N 94.7W 22.7N 95.8W
LBAR 22.2N 92.2W 22.8N 93.7W 23.5N 95.6W 24.3N 96.9W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 1200 070927 1200 070928 1200 070929 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 97.4W 22.2N 99.4W 21.5N 102.3W 21.7N 105.8W
BAMD 22.4N 95.7W 21.6N 97.8W 21.2N 100.4W 21.5N 103.4W
BAMM 22.4N 96.8W 21.6N 98.9W 21.0N 102.1W 21.5N 106.0W
LBAR 25.2N 97.9W 26.3N 98.7W 26.9N 98.2W 27.8N 97.2W
SHIP 44KTS 62KTS 73KTS 73KTS
DSHP 44KTS 35KTS 28KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 92.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.9N LONM12 = 90.8W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 89.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[HURAKAN]

[DESTRUCTION5]

LMAO..Now thats a Consensus..

[AnnularCane]

Looks like somebody got ahold of some felt-tip pens and just scribbled all over the BOC and the Yucatan.

[Portastorm]

Today's 12z GFS pretty much has high pressure to the system's north forcing it into the southwestern GOM/BOC and eventually into Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_ten048066_l.shtml

[HouTXmetro]

What an amazing year.. Here we are approaching October and storms are still headed West instead of poleward. Going to be a long season if development keeps up.

[bbadon]

Why will this system not get tugged northwest or wnw on the periphery(sp) of the high?

[HouTXmetro]

High Pressure is suppuse to block any Northward Motion eventually.

[Ixolib]

LMAO..Now thats a Consensus..

Yes - they seem to be coming nicely into agreement!!

[O Town]

Wow, looks like the GFS got into the cat nip.
Im sure once this gets better organized the models will get it together, looks like only 2, bamms and lbar, initialized in the right place.

[wxman57]

Why will this system not get tugged northwest or wnw on the periphery(sp) of the high?

Steering currents should be weak for the next 48-72 hours. Beyond then, high pressure is forecast to build across northern Mexico, Texas, and the NW Gulf. That means northerly winds across the western Gulf in the 700-400mb range (mid levels) and NE-ENE winds in the SW Gulf. With that flow, anything in the SW Gulf would track to the west or southwest.