Ex Tropical Depression MELISSA- Discussions & Images

[Sanibel]

I wonder how often systems develop right over the Cape Verde Islands? They must be fairly dry islands.

Destined by fate to recurve.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

14L.NONAME on NRL!

[WmE]

Well is there the possibility it can recurve hit Europe?

[Meso]

[PhillyWX]

Well is there the possibility it can recurve hit Europe?

As a ex-trop system the odds of a hit in Europe are decent. Not as a tropical system though. I don't think the atmospherics would support it in the same way they supported Vince in 2005.

[CrazyC83]

I can't see this lasting long unless it keeps a really low latitude for a long time. The wind shear will kill this much faster than Karen.

[Chacor]

TD14 has formed.

[Chacor]

WTNT34 KNHC 281443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 26.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.1 N...26.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chacor]

WTNT44 KNHC 281443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE CYCLONE HAS DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH WELL
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. A SHIP LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER
REPORTED 29 KNOTS. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE THE SHEAR IS
LOW.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A RATHER STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH
LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT MAKES THE DEPRESSION A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MORE
INFORMATION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AFTER THE 12Z RUN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 14.1N 26.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 14.4N 27.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 15.0N 28.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 30.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 31.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 18.5N 34.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 21.0N 36.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 36.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

Changed titles as they upgraded to TD 14.

A lovely fish storm to track!

[chadtm80]

[jasons2k]

Looks better than Karen right now IMO.

[chadtm80]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Brent]

Looks much better than Karen.

[canegrl04]

It seems to me with the overall pattern this year,the US is safe from being hit by a major hurricane.They either get torn up by the shear in the Carribean,go to Mexico,or fish

[CrazyC83]

It seems to me with the overall pattern this year,the US is safe from being hit by a major hurricane.They either get torn up by the shear in the Carribean,go to Mexico,or fish

Unless there is a homebrew storm or something that forms in the Atlantic north of 22°N (and in October those usually go out to sea or sometimes to Canada).

[BigA]

It seems to me with the overall pattern this year,the US is safe from being hit by a major hurricane.They either get torn up by the shear in the Carribean,go to Mexico,or fish

Unless there is a homebrew storm or something that forms in the Atlantic north of 22°N (and in October those usually go out to sea or sometimes to Canada).

There is always the potential in October for an Irene or Wilma type storm coming out of the Western Caribbean and moving east toward Florida. But as for TD14, its pretty much going to be shredded fish.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to me with the overall pattern this year,the US is safe from being hit by a major hurricane.They either get torn up by the shear in the Carribean,go to Mexico,or fish

Unless there is a homebrew storm or something that forms in the Atlantic north of 22°N (and in October those usually go out to sea or sometimes to Canada).

There is always the potential in October for an Irene or Wilma type storm coming out of the Western Caribbean and moving east toward Florida. But as for TD14, its pretty much going to be shredded fish.

Agreed. Unless this rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane (and that is extremely unlikely), the shear will shred it apart.

[Andrew92]

It seems to me with the overall pattern this year,the US is safe from being hit by a major hurricane.They either get torn up by the shear in the Carribean,go to Mexico,or fish

That's true, but there's still two more months to go. Lest we forget, Humberto intensified extremely rapidly before making landfall (although I do believe it should have been named sooner).

The pattern could change, the shear could lessen in the Caribbean and the United States could still get hit by a major hurricane in October.

We'll just have to see. In the meantime, I think this depression will briefly become Melissa, then weaken and be a harmless fish.

-Andrew92