INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Derek Ortt]

at least the Yucatan.

The greatest threat may be for severe flooding in Cuba due to the slow trek across the island. Could be some impact in the keys as well primarily due to the small size

[cycloneye]

Here they go. (If Necessary)

SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 04/1445Z
D. 25.0N 74.0W
E. 04/1730Z TO 2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 73
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 05/0200Z
D. 25.0N 75.0W
E. 05/0500Z TO 0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES AT
05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[caneman]

In short I can see no problem at all with people 'wishcasting', unless it's done solely to offend someone / for political reasons.[/quote]
Personally I wanna be striked by an eyewall.
that must be cool.[/quote]

Obviously you've never experienced an eyewall or you wouldn't be saying that. I can assure you of that.

[boca]

Do we need to by concerned here in mainland S Fl about 92L since the projected track is south of the keys and possibly impacting Cuba?

[Bgator]

I assume S. FLA should at least expect some rain out of this... IS that correct?

[Vortex]

Wxman57..You called it...About 3 days ago you mentioned your participating in a bike event this weekend

[boca]

Will we have any affects here in mainland S Fl from the Bahamian system? pro mets chime in.

[mightyerick]

which one is 92L??? the thing south of cuba or the thing east of bahamas?

[Vortex]

I'd say rain and squally weather for the mainland at the minimum based on *current* track and intensity..TS winds probablly remaining over the lower keys.

[Evil Jeremy]

Derek, what are the chances of formation here?

[cycloneye]

which one is 92L??? the thing south of cuba or the thing east of bahamas?

East of Bahamas.

[PTrackerLA]

It would be simply amazing if this system doesn't get picked up by a trough or eventually head northward (it's October right?) but it seems that the GFS wants to send this into the BOC and on into Mexico. We shall see, it's been an interesting year so it wouldn't surprise me.

[boca]

This might be another lopsided system with all the weather on the SE side like Katrina while it was crossing S FL. We got nothing in Boca Raton while her eye was impacted the Dade/Broward line.

[Vortex]

Based on current visible the LLC appears to be forming near 27.2N/71.2W which is NE of the 12Z model suite...

[cycloneye]

[boca]

Vortex your right I see rotation in that area too.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Vortex]

I don't like that position at all!!!

[mightyerick]

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

would it change over the next days???

[boca]

I don't like that position at all!!!

That's 2 full degrees further north which puts those tracks possible over S FL.

[flwxwatcher]

It would be simply amazing if this system doesn't get picked up by a trough or eventually head northward (it's October right?) but it seems that the GFS wants to send this into the BOC and on into Mexico. We shall see, it's been an interesting year so it wouldn't surprise me.

I know right now some of the models are burying this system in the Bay of Campeche but what worries me is it gets into the Gulf and the steering currents weaken and it stalls for awhile.. Interesting week-end ahead.