EX INVEST 93L Thread

[Cyclenall]

I give this a 25% chance of becoming a named storm. I'll start having faith in the tropics again once things actually happen.

[Meso]

00z GFDL strengthens it to 60kt and moves it out to sea
Link

00z HWRF keeps it at TD strength but also moves it out NE
Link

[alan1961]

aha..93L up as an invest..and not before time!..been saying this since yesterday..seems this has got the attention it warrants

[robert_88]

Nothing looks really good this morning and there sure is alot of shear out there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

5:30 AM TWO

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

[cycloneye]

8:05 AM TWD:

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N63W TO ERN CUBA
DOMINATES THE SW PORTION OF THE ATLC BASIN. THERE ARE A FEW
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES ALONG THIS STRETCHED OUT TROUGH AXIS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED JUST N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS INTERACTION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 62W-72W.
PRECIP APPEARS MOST CONCENTRATED JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 63W-65W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

[cycloneye]

[Nimbus]

Its pretty far south. The models have shifted so that the first trough misses 93L but it does not move WNW very fast.
Any further south and it is going to start having land interaction problems.

[Derek Ortt]

well... the favorable conditions lasted for 12 hours. Looks like northerly shear.

The SW Caribbean has little shear though, typial of an October la nina. We just do not have a surface feature there

[cycloneye]

KWBC 061307
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1307 UTC SAT OCT 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20071006 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071006 1200 071007 0000 071007 1200 071008 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.0N 67.9W 22.4N 69.4W 23.9N 70.9W 25.0N 71.8W
BAMD 21.0N 67.9W 21.7N 69.3W 22.4N 70.4W 23.2N 71.1W
BAMM 21.0N 67.9W 22.0N 69.3W 23.0N 70.5W 23.9N 71.0W
LBAR 21.0N 67.9W 21.8N 68.7W 22.8N 69.2W 23.6N 69.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071008 1200 071009 1200 071010 1200 071011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.4N 72.8W 26.0N 74.6W 26.8N 75.7W 28.7N 75.2W
BAMD 23.8N 71.2W 24.2N 71.6W 25.8N 71.9W 29.7N 68.6W
BAMM 24.4N 71.1W 24.7N 71.5W 26.0N 71.5W 29.1N 69.2W
LBAR 24.1N 68.5W 25.4N 65.5W 27.8N 61.0W 29.0N 55.6W
SHIP 44KTS 54KTS 58KTS 54KTS
DSHP 44KTS 54KTS 58KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.0N LONCUR = 67.9W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 20.5N LONM12 = 67.5W DIRM12 = 328DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 67.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00 UTC models

[Sanibel]

I think there is still very loose turning at the 93L position north of Puerto Rico.

[Thunder44]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061511
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Blown Away]

I give 93L chances to develope between 0-1%.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is there an invest number for the area in the NW Caribbean that recon may fly tomorrow? It isn't this, is it?

[eaglegirl]

Is there an invest number for the area in the NW Caribbean that recon may fly tomorrow? It isn't this, is it?

I don't think so... it's hard to tell in the midst of all this mystery weather

hmmm... 25N 71W... maybe they will revive 92L?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 061812
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1812 UTC SAT OCT 6 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20071006 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071006 1800 071007 0600 071007 1800 071008 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.6N 68.6W 22.9N 70.3W 24.3N 71.7W 25.0N 72.8W
BAMD 21.6N 68.6W 22.2N 69.8W 23.0N 70.7W 23.6N 70.9W
BAMM 21.6N 68.6W 22.4N 70.1W 23.4N 71.3W 23.9N 71.9W
LBAR 21.6N 68.6W 22.2N 69.4W 23.1N 70.0W 23.8N 69.9W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071008 1800 071009 1800 071010 1800 071011 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.7N 73.9W 26.9N 76.4W 28.5N 77.1W 30.8N 72.5W
BAMD 24.1N 70.7W 25.0N 71.1W 28.3N 70.0W 34.4N 61.7W
BAMM 24.5N 72.4W 25.6N 73.8W 28.4N 73.0W 33.0N 66.0W
LBAR 24.3N 69.2W 26.0N 66.4W 28.6N 62.7W 32.2N 57.5W
SHIP 43KTS 52KTS 55KTS 49KTS
DSHP 43KTS 52KTS 55KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 68.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 20.8N LONM12 = 67.7W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 20.5N LONM24 = 67.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[chadtm80]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFS shows a much weaker ridge
after a couple days- 93L should move NW
and then N

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[canes04]

93 is becoming better organized this afternoon.
We may have a depression by tomorrow morning.
With the high building over the system, it should move W or WNW for a few days.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 19:45 UTC







Looking better.