Tropical Depression 15 : Atlantic : Discussions & Images

[chadtm80]

I think thats bull.. This has been 93L from the get go

[Cyclone1]

I think thats bull.. This has been 93L from the get go

Yeah that's true, but did Karen have anything to do with 93?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a 40-45 knot tropical storm with the burst of convection forming near the core if not slightly displaced northeastward.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Brown=35 knots colar on rain flag far away from the center(about 90-120 miles). I hope that is not a rainflaged one. But any ways even if its not, it likely has 35 knot winds near the core.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[Thunder44]

Brown=35 knots colar on rain flag far away from the center(about 90-120 miles). I hope that is not a rainflaged one. But any ways even if its not, it likely has 35 knot winds near the core.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

That is from this morning. Should be another pass sometime this evening.

[Category 5]

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S
REMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO
THIS SYSTEM.

Interesting paragraph about what NHC thinks about the dead Karen playing a roll with this.

Karen Died 13 days ago. I doubt it.

[Joshs]

so what you all think of TD 15?


wish came out of no where

[cycloneye]

Thu Oct 11 19:34:33 EDT 2007
WHXX04 KWBC 112325

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN 15L



INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 11



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 30.0 51.1 75./14.0

6 30.2 50.5 77./ 5.9

12 30.4 50.1 63./ 4.0

18 30.4 50.2 280./ 1.5

24 30.7 50.6 311./ 3.9

30 31.1 51.0 310./ 5.4

36 31.7 51.3 332./ 6.9

42 32.7 51.6 345./10.2

48 34.0 51.6 2./13.0



STORM DISSIPATED AT 48 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

18z GFDL

[HURAKAN]

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 120044
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC FRI OCT 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN (AL152007) 20071012 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071012 0000 071012 1200 071013 0000 071013 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.0N 49.9W 30.3N 49.4W 31.0N 49.3W 32.0N 49.0W
BAMD 30.0N 49.9W 29.8N 48.8W 29.1N 49.2W 28.4N 50.5W
BAMM 30.0N 49.9W 30.2N 49.4W 30.6N 49.5W 31.2N 49.8W
LBAR 30.0N 49.9W 30.0N 48.3W 30.0N 47.9W 29.7N 48.3W
SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 28KTS 24KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 28KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071014 0000 071015 0000 071016 0000 071017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.5N 47.8W 36.2N 42.3W 37.9N 35.7W 42.0N 28.2W
BAMD 27.9N 51.7W 27.3N 53.3W 26.6N 52.2W 24.3N 51.7W
BAMM 32.4N 49.0W 33.5N 44.2W 34.1N 39.0W 36.7N 29.8W
LBAR 29.7N 49.0W 30.5N 50.2W 32.3N 49.2W 35.1N 43.2W
SHIP 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.0N LONCUR = 49.9W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 29.7N LONM12 = 52.6W DIRM12 = 75DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 28.8N LONM24 = 55.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

No upgrade to a storm.

[Chacor]

I notice that the working best-track has pushed TD formation back to 12z yesterday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We don't have the data for the upgrade. Hopefully a clear quickscat go's over soon, but any ways I do believe ita borderline right now. In could easly go over to tropical storm, but hey we all got options.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I strongly believe now it has reached tropical storm strength. The LLC has became very well defined and convection is firing over it. Classic sheared tropical storm.

[cycloneye]

177
WTNT25 KNHC 120231
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 49.7W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 49.7W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 48.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.1N 48.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.4N 48.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.0N 48.2W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 49.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

185
WTNT45 KNHC 120234
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152007
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
THIS EVENING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25
AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS ONCE AGAIN IN THE QUIKSCAT GAP...BUT AMSU AND SSMI
MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN FINDING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN DECELERATING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 090/8 KT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS APPROACHING THE
CYCLONE FROM THE WEST. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES BY THE DEPRESSION
TONIGHT....THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAVE
BEEN PLAGUING THE SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER NORTHERLIES.
THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...
IF NOT SOONER.

THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECELERATE AND MEANDER UNTIL A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK....CLOSE
TO THE 18Z UKMET SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 30.0N 49.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 48.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 30.1N 48.4W 25 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.4N 48.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 48.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Still a TD at 11pm.

[punkyg]

any one agree with me that td 15 looks like karen?

[Brent]

Karen was history 2 weeks ago... I seriously doubt it.

[punkyg]

I'm talking about how it looks not about if its whats left of karen.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC has moved under the convection. No question now is a tropical storm. The question is will t numbers go up to get the nhc to upgrade?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The blue/red dots are the center.