BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[Derecho]

This is catastrophic.
Bangladesh needs to give evacuation orders for the area!
That is the only way to save lives.

It's not possible to evacuate the area.

As others have noted it's impossible to convey the extreme density and poverty of the area; it's beyond anything conceivable in this country. There simply aren't enough roads or vehicles to do so.

[RL3AO]

India has issued the highest warning for some coastal areas. I'm not sure about Bangladesh.

[Cyclenall]

How long will it take until CNN blames it on Global Warming?

In no time. There will most likely be a special after the cyclone is over on how GW caused the disaster.

This should be the first story or headline for all news networks in a fair (in other words, non-existent) media world. Of course, there is a chance this won't even be TALKED about period until tomorrow or even after that!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is catastrophic.
Bangladesh needs to give evacuation orders for the area!
That is the only way to save lives.

It's not possible to evacuate the area.

As others have noted it's impossible to convey the extreme density and poverty of the area; it's beyond anything conceivable in this country. There simply aren't enough roads or vehicles to do so.

This is a very sad situation.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I did find some information about disaster management plans:

A Comprehensive Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) is jointly planned, operated, and managed by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief and the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, and a volunteer force of more than 32,000 are trained to help in warning and evacuation in the coastal areas[2].

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ba ... l_cyclones

[CrazyC83]

India has issued the highest warning for some coastal areas. I'm not sure about Bangladesh.

They should be putting out a very harshly-worded warning, like the one for New Orleans before Katrina...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/warn_archi ... 155101.txt

[wxman57]

When I use a different enhancement curve to better define the eye, I get a 2-hr movement (1730Z to 1930Z) of 28.5nm at 358 deg. That's north at over 14 kts! At that speed, the center would cross the coast at 15Z tomorrow.

[wlfpack81]

I just want to say this now:

WHETHER YOU'RE FOR OR AGAINST GLOBAL WARMING CAN WE AT LEAST LEAVE THE BS PISS FEST CONCERNING THAT ISSUE OUT OF THIS THREAD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GO TOOT YOUR FREAKING HORN SOMEWHERE ELSE!!!

Sorry but had to rant...mods can get upset if they want but I want to keep this thread from becoming a stupid internet, I have bigger balls than you, flame war!

Just stick to the issue of the storm itself, the damage that's about to occur and the horrific aftermath. Thank you....

[CrazyC83]

When I use a different enhancement curve to better define the eye, I get a 2-hr movement (1730Z to 1930Z) of 28.5nm at 358 deg. That's north at over 14 kts! At that speed, the center would cross the coast at 15Z tomorrow.

It should accelerate somewhat before landfall. Right now, if they flew a Hurricane Hunter into this monster, I think they'd find 145 kt winds and a 904mb pressure.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Current News from Bangladesh they have warnings in fact
highest warnings levels for the coast/ships
http://www.bangladesh-web.com/

[wxman57]

Current News from Bangladesh they have warnings in fact
highest warnings levels for the coast/ships
http://www.bangladesh-web.com/

That "news" is at least 24 hours old. Landfall in 48 hours? Try less than 24 hours, maybe less than 18. Also, it lists max winds at 165km/hr (102 mph). A bit off. Quite a disaster in the making. 11 million people and only shelters for 500,000. No transportation and less than 12 hours before squalls really begin.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

hopefully the people in the area know about the high level
10 coastal warnings I think 10 is the highest alert level for a
cyclone

[CrazyC83]

14/2030 UTC 17.2N 89.2E T7.0/7.0 SIDR -- Bay of Bengal

SSD now on the Cat 5 bandwagon.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2007 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 17:17:29 N Lon : 89:14:39 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 898.0mb/140.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -39.4C Cloud Region Temp : -82.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


Not your typical lucky #7.

[RL3AO]

The yellows have expanded in the past 2 hours

[Cyclenall]

hopefully the people in the area know about the high level
10 coastal warnings I think 10 is the highest alert level for a
cyclone

Most won't know.

[CrazyC83]

The yellows have expanded in the past 2 hours

That suggests the storm has grown a bit in size. What is the IMD smoking, 966mb and 90 kt????

[MiamiensisWx]

Seriously, I would place the NHC or BOM in charge. I would fund modern reconnaissance data in the Indian Ocean.

I know that is impossible, but I feel helpless for these people.

[RL3AO]

Here is the loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=IO062007&starting_image=2007IO06_4KMIRIMG_200711110700.GIF (It is a java GIF so if your browser has problems with Java you've been warned)

[CrazyC83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Using NHC form and my estimates derived from many sources and past history, here is what the advisory should say:

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SIDR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...BEARING DOWN ON THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL COAST...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 530 AM IST...2300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SIDR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.3 EAST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...SOUTH OF KOLKATA INDIA.

SIDR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 11 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS SHOW THAT THE MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND ARE NOW NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIDR REMAINS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC TROPICAL CYCLONE...EQUIVALENT TO A CATEGORY FIVE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. NONETHELESS, SIDR SHOULD BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST OF EASTERN INDIA OR BANGLADESH...AT LEAST OF CATEGORY THREE AND POSSIBLY CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 75 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...115 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...265 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 904 MB...26.70 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 8 TO 15 INCHES - WITH LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 24 INCHES IN HIGHLAND AREAS - ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN INDIA AND BANGLADESH. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF WESTERN MYANMAR. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 27 FEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST BENGAL AND BANGLADESH COASTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER LEVELS UP TO 35 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE GANGES DELTA IF SIDR MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF BANGLADESH. THE FLOODING COULD INUNDATE MUCH OF THE REGION. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEASTERN BAY OF BENGAL COAST, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWESTERN MYANMAR.

REPEATING THE 530 AM IST POSITION...16.8 N...89.3 E. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...904 MB.

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FORECASTER CrazyC83

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