Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Brent]

[windstorm99]

Ive had worse thunderstorms over my house then this mess

Minimal TS winds are to be expected but nothing life threatening.

[brunota2003]

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS DISAPPEARED UNDER A CIRRUS
OVERCAST CAUSED BY A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST...WHICH INCLUDED A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH A WELL-DEFINED MESOCYCLONE ON THE
MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D. THE BURST HAS ENDED FOR NOW...BUT HAS LEFT
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE DOPPLER RADAR DATA. WHILE
THE RADAR WINDS DO NOT YET SHOW AN OBVIOUS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...
A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS THAT
WERE POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35
KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

It was indeed a mesocyclone...WOW!

[seahawkjd]

So I take it now its supposed to come in a little further west?

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[jasons2k]

The MLC on radar is definitely west of the NHC LLC forecast track - I have it marked here:

[george_r_1961]

Did she just jump to the west??? Ive been watching IR and I swear it looks like either she took a jump or the center reformed or something.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is unbelieveable, the hurricane models and upper level data was showing the ridge breaking down. In now the system appears to be going more west. GRRR there go's my forecast into the trash if it follows the GFDL from earlier.

[george_r_1961]

Matt I dont know if its a center reformation or a "wobble" (please dont shoot me for using that word ) It did appear to be a significant westerly shift though.

Gonna monitor this tonite to see if this has any effect on the forecast track.

[Terry]

Looks west to me on radar and has for about an hour.

[brunota2003]

08/2345 UTC 32.9N 75.3W T3.0/3.0 GABRIELLE
T Numbers at 3.0...Recon will tell the tale though.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[hurricanedude]

looking very healthy...taking on the "shape!!"

[seahawkjd]

So, defintely going to need a hair pin turn to not make a landfall at this point, though I know better then to say anything definete about this thing at this point.

[hurricanedude]

the 11pm discussion did say there 40mph wind may be concervitive..so may be a bit higher.....recon might fing some 50-60 mph winds..

[brunota2003]

the 11pm discussion did say there 40mph wind may be concervitive..so may be a bit higher.....recon might fing some 50-60 mph winds..

Yeah, I'm thinking it'll be quite a bit stronger, closer to 55 mph or so. Possibly a reforming LLC as well?

[Bane]

looks like shear is all but non-existant. clouds are fanning out on both sides of the circulation now.

[seahawkjd]

Well, I'm sitting here a few miles from Cape Lookout, looking more and more interesting.

[hurricanedude]

still has quite a few hours over water...a run to cane strenghth could be about to happen...would not be surprised to see a Hurricane Warning be issued if recon finds winds close to 60mph...and given low shear..gulf stream....well you do the math