Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

#421 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:SHIPS is off of the wrong low. The globals are fine. BAMM is not

Thank you...The globals are developing the correct low people! Just look at the 12 hr position..geez

#422 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:03 pm

Oddly enough, the 00z NAM looks pretty accurate right now....it looked pretty accurate from the start. It never showed the low off the east coast. It instead develops the low off the west coast.

#423 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:05 pm

skysummit wrote:Oddly enough, the 00z NAM looks pretty accurate right now....it looked pretty accurate from the start. It never showed the low off the east coast. It instead develops the low off the west coast.

Yes , same as GFS...they develop the low SW of Florida..a lot of misinformation tonight...

Wx_Warrior · #424 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:06 pm

And the E low could take it over...never rule that out

#425 Postby **HollynLA** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:13 pm

And there you have it. I am disagreeing for all the right reasons. Models that are initialized wrong and disagreed with by the mets are not to be trusted. Personally, I expect a huge shift back west in the models tomorrow when/if a new location is initialized as the "center" SW of Florida. New Orleans is still possible, but I personally think it is the far east scenario. JMO.

And I hope you are right, I really do.

#426 Postby **canetracker** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:13 pm

Ivanhater wrote:People...stop saying just because they have the "wrong" low, they should be thrown out...GFS actually develops the low off SW Florida and STILL moves it NW...

You are correct as evidenced by the 18z GFS:

#427 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:14 pm

00Z NAM 30 HR

#428 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:15 pm

The NAM is pretty much what Bob Breck's Vipir shows. It's always usually so close to the NAM. I beginning to think his Viper IS the NAM. LOL

#429 Postby **canetracker** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:18 pm

So true Skysummit....I never thought about that before. Bob goes with the Vipir (NAM, Jr.??) when he likes the outcome and discounts it when he hates the outcome.

#430 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:22 pm

42 HR NAM..

#431 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:24 pm

It also shows a pretty favorable upper air environment...

200mb @ 42 Hours

#432 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:27 pm

48 HR

Duddy · #433 Postby **Duddy** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:31 pm

Ivanhater wrote:48 HR

wtf?

#434 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:31 pm

54 HR

caneman · #435 Postby **caneman** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:33 pm

I think the NAM and GFS will verify. ANd by the way NHC verifies the low over central Florida is the dominate one. Case closed And if you live in the area you know it's strong as it has been producing some fairly strong winds and gusts.

#436 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:36 pm

60 HR

Sabanic · #437 Postby **Sabanic** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:37 pm

Ivanhater wrote:60 HR

Getting way too close for comfort there.

#438 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:37 pm

Yup....the NAM is Bob's Vipir.

#439 Postby **deltadog03** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:39 pm

Trust the EURO...lol

#440 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:41 pm

Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

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