Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[JtSmarts]

Pressure 1004 MB, pretty weak.

Yes it is...very sad indeed. I think the mid-level center has become detached from the low level center and that is one reason (besides diurnals) for the lack of deep convection. Recon places a center (notice a said "a center"...there may be more...) near 26.1/94.9 or so...at 1004 mb. Given that...it is probably the only center. But the radar and satellite shows a clear MLC near 27/95.0 and moving away from the LLC.

It needs a doctor.

Yep, 24 hours ago I thought we'd be looking at a 60-70 mph TS by now. I PM'd David last night and told him I thought landfall as a high-end TS or Cat 1 @ Port Lavaca on Thursday AM. I think the location will be close but I really didn't think we'd still have a 1004mb blob out there.

Very interesting how this storm has not matured at all considering the ideal environment, you can tell this isn't 2005.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quittin time- forecast discussion from NWS FWD speculates that Erin may leave a weakness/split in the ridge over Texas that ultimately affects what is forecast to be Category 4 Hurricane Dean in 5 days...

[rainman31]

Looking at the radar, it seems most of the rain will stay south of houston. You never know, we may be under another heat advisory with very little rain on thursday.

[Bailey1777]

This system never stacked up and now it's run out of time, I expect to see it go down hill rather quickly. Still a rain event though.

[Duddy]

This system never stacked up and now it's run out of time, I expect to see it go down hill rather quickly. Still a rain event though.

Barely a rain event. The radar show nothing but sprinkles with just a few showers.

This really is a nothing storm! I have had two bands pass over me and didn't get anything but a sprinkle from the 1st one. The storms just keep dying the second they come on-shore.

[Bailey1777]

Erin's shield just came off but what is that blast of energy way East of her.

[ROCK]

This system never stacked up and now it's run out of time, I expect to see it go down hill rather quickly. Still a rain event though.

yep, never had the internal structure to really get going......

[Extremeweatherguy]

Still looks decent to me. I could easily see this thing blowing up tonight during the diurnal maximum.

[sevenleft]

It won't be doing any strenghtening until it develops a solid structure. And it is really running out of time to do that.

[Bailey1777]

I give you credit extreme you fight until the bitter end.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It won't be doing any strenghtening until it develops a solid structure. And it is really running out of time to do that.

I don't know about strengthening, but I could see a larger rain sheild setting up again..which would not be good.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like Erin may be sucking in that giant blob
to it's east over the eastern gulf of mexico...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I give you credit extreme you fight until the bitter end.

Thanks, and yes that is true. I just have seen one too many storms look like they would be weak only to have them blow up overnight to let my guard down with this one. I do think the hurricane chances are near 0% now though, but I wouldn't rule out a 50-60mph TS if this can get it's act together within the next 12 hours.

[ROCK]

It won't be doing any strenghtening until it develops a solid structure. And it is really running out of time to do that.

I don't know about strengthening, but I could see a larger rain sheild setting up again..which would not be good.

I agree,,,squalling weather for sure......sat presentation looks good I agree with that. Just running out of water....12 hrs and it should be making landfall if I had to guess......

[jabman98]

This really is a nothing storm! I have had two bands pass over me and didn't get anything but a sprinkle from the 1st one. The storms just keep dying the second they come on-shore.

So true. You can just watch them vanish on the radar. They seem to show up again north of the Houston area - a little bit - but it's not that impressive. We had a big storm come through at 4:00 a.m. this morning - maybe that's all we'll get.

Are they saying that Erin is going to leave a big traintrack for Dean to follow all the way in to TX? Is that the latest theory?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am getting some rain here in NW Houston right now as well as breezy winds.

[Furious George]

Wow, it does need a doctor. While things could change, it appears to have lost a bit of its punch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Bailey1777]

On IR she's dissentigrading.

[rainman31]

partly cloudy here in clear lake

[rainman31]

Wow, it does need a doctor. While things could change, it appears to have lost a bit of its punch.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

I thought the same thing