Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[brunota2003]

still has quite a few hours over water...a run to cane strenghth could be about to happen...would not be surprised to see a Hurricane Warning be issued if recon finds winds close to 60mph...and given low shear..gulf stream....well you do the math

I do not have too and that would be a very bad/nasty surprise for most NC residents!

Wow, she is lookin' purty.

[JonathanBelles]

Im thinking 45mph right now as stated in my forecast and a slight westerly shift to the track.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think they will find 52-55 knot flight level winds...With a strengthing cyclone based on what I've seen. 1003-1005 millibars.

[hurricanedude]

Im thinking that 45 mph is even a bit conservitive...i truely expect a 60 mph storm on the 2am advisory

[Chacor]

Remember that most local NWS offices are now issuing graphical wind impact products.

For example,

[hurricanedude]

yeah but thats way over 12 hours old

[Bane]

i'm just hoping the feeder bands reach us and give us that much needed rain.

[marcane_1973]

It looks like the storm has been moving due west the last hour and even almost a southwest jog the last frame. Wouldn't it be crazy if it continued to move due west all the way till landfall. That would take the center into the Lttle River SC or North Myrtle Beach area and TS warnings would need to be posted back for portions of northeast SC. I don't think this will happen but if this trend were to continue and this were to actually happen talk about the NHC being WAY off on their forecast track.

[george_r_1961]

Gotta remember though the IR imagery can make a storm look a lot stronger than what it is.

I wonder what recon will find.

[hurricanedude]

if the center is relocating, and i think it is...its an illusion and not a west movement....central NC hit through southeast VA....and then out....thats my story and Im sticking to it..lol

[jasons2k]

If this keeps up it will be closer to the Wilmnington Radar than Morehead City...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Sanibel]

When it sprouts a tail like that it means its dvorak is increasing.

The radar reflection is west of the surface center which is still not exactly located under the center of spin seen on radar. It's because the radar cuts straight out into the horizon, and at that distance hits the storm clouds at many thousand feet above the surface.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear appears to be coming back and moving the CDO off to the west. That is why it appeas to be moving. The LLC is moving very little right now.

[marcane_1973]

Latest:

Best Gabrielle has looked so far. I would think Recon should find winds close to 50mph.

[emeraldislencguy]

can the pro mets give us their opinion??

[Sanibel]

I think I see an eyewall forming on radar which should put it above 50mph.

[emeraldislencguy]

lots of peolple went to bed expecting only 20-25 mph winds--they may be surprised in the am--looks like it is moving in a more westernly course--and it looks the best it has looked so far

[RL3AO]

That h-word isn't looking as crazy. Which would suck for the people in the OBX that went to bed with a 40 mph TS.

[hurricanedude]

dont think the shear is back...its an EXPANDING and strenghtinging storm giving the illusion of the west movement...fanning all all sides...symetrical shape...dont think shear is a problem in the near term